| HOLD | 19.240 | Ben Cheng | (Market Call Minute.) Has a significant refining business and is under a lot of pressure. If oil prices go higher, it will be under pressure. | 2008-08-07 | |
| SELL | 20.120 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | 17% yield, which should make you suspicious. Having difficulty, mainly because of their Come by Chance refinery. Margins are very poor in the refinery business right now. Highly likely the distribution will be cut. | 2008-07-18 | |
| BUY | 24.600 | Ken McCord | Fundamentally what is backing up energy stories is still very much intact. A big believer in energy. In the next week or two, there could be a little pullback but this one hasn't had the big spike like others so you could buy now. | 2008-05-23 | |
| HOLD | 23.750 | Norman Levine | (Market Call Minute.) In conventional oil/gas and in refining and marketing. Refining and marketing has low margins right now. Too late to sell. | 2008-05-12 | |
| Comment | 23.040 | Sandy McIntyre | 15.5% yield. Doesn't like the balance sheet. Too many issues of convertible debt. Have a refinery in Come by Chance Newfoundland, which has been going through a seasonally weak period and will likely come into a seasonally strong period through July and August. Would Sell, but wait until the strong period. | 2008-05-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.340 | Michael Sprung | A year ago it was throwing off a lot of cash with good refining margins. In the last year, there has been a squeeze in margins. Doesn't see this alleviating in the near future. 16.2% yield indicates people are worried about the company going forward. | 2008-04-30 | |
| Comment | 24.510 | Ben Cheng | Focused on heavy oil production but also have a significant part of their business in a refinery in Come- by-Chance Newfoundland. Refinery had some down time, which affected their cash flow and earnings. Concerned about their balance sheet because of their higher debt relative to their peers. | 2008-04-16 | |
| HOLD | 24.150 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) | 2008-04-14 | |
| Comment | 23.830 | Bruce Campbell | Because of the refinery side, the production side doesn't need to churn. Well run. Likes it better than the other income trusts, but still prefers to go elsewhere for his oil exposure. | 2008-04-11 | |
| WEAK BUY | 22.820 | Ken McCord | Likes the yield on it. Likes the name and sector, but is not ready to get into it yet. Would rather like ener plus, and arc energy better.
The high yield raises a red flag. | 2008-03-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.570 | John Stephenson | Think very highly of management. Having fairly strong production declines, struggling to keep production up in their traditional upstream business. They may potentially cut the distribution. | 2008-03-25 | |
| BUY | 22.800 | Norman Levine | 2 businesses. Normal oil/gas trust in Western Canada, but also acquired the Come By Chance refinery in Newfoundland. This is great diversification for them and a good long-term business. The timing of it however was that they got it when margins where near their peak and have come down quite a bit. They had to cut their distribution. 15.8% yield. | 2008-03-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.770 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Downstream operation is actually doing very well. Crack spreads have come off since last year as costs have gone up. Feels their coker project is on hold while they assess the market. Debt is relatively high. Distribution of 15.7% indicates a concern. | 2008-03-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.950 | Dean Orrico | Has stumbled in the past. Became more negative on it when it bought the refinery in Newfoundland. Refinery business is very difficult to run a lack of sustainability of cash flow. 90% payout ratio so he could see a distribution cut. | 2008-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.680 | Michael Sprung | Have an exposure to refining that a lot of other trusts don't. Investors were buying last year because of higher refining margins but when margins began to tighten there was some selling pressure. Have had some weakness on both upstream and downstream operations. At current prices, there is almost a 16% yield, which is a red flag. Selling at a fairly large multiple. | 2008-01-08 | |
| HOLD | 20.400 | David Cockfield | Market is beating up on the units because it is anticipating a cut in distribution. Likes their refinery, which is their major asset in the Maritimes. Recently, spreads on refining have narrowed significantly but he thinks they are going to open up again. There is a shortage of refining space in North America and this is strategically placed. 18% yield. | 2007-12-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.300 | John Zechner | Balance sheet is a little bit stretched. Thinks oil prices are heading back down. Sold his holdings earlier this year. | 2007-12-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.340 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Unique story in the oil/gas trust space. Bought a refinery in Newfoundland. Did very well the first part of this year with healthy refining margins. Conventional assets disappointed in 2nd and 3rd quarters and refining margins have now fallen out of bed. Doesn't have a lot of confidence in refining margins, which can be very volatile. | 2007-12-04 | |
| BUY | 21.630 | Norman Levine | Have 2 main businesses. Oil/gas and a Newfoundland refinery. Earlier in the year, refinery margins where really big, but started to shrink when the summer driving season was over. Because of this and weak natural gas prices, they had to cut their distribution. For long-term investors, 3 to 5 years, this is a very good company. 16.39% yield. | 2007-12-03 | |
| SELL | 20.500 | Michele Robitaille | 75% mostly heavy oil and have issues on the upstream operation. Have a refinery, which drove the earnings up, but crack spreads are now weak. Has a 50,000 acre oil sand lease. Recently had a distribution cut. Expects another weak quarter in Q4. Doesn't see a lot of near-term upside. | 2007-11-28 | |
| BUY | 26.400 | Norman Levine | An oil/gas trust that bought the Come By Chance oil refinery that gave a whole new dimension to the company. Refining margins have weakened and they have to put in some capital expenditures and this has hurt the stock. In the long-term, this diversification will prove to be smart. | 2007-10-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.360 | John Stephenson | Doesn't think the stock will go anywhere for a while because they are doing a plant turnaround at Come-by-Chance, Newfoundland. Refining is weak now and their conventional production has been a little weak. Expects there is a strong chance of a distribution cut. | 2007-09-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.450 | Brendan Kyne | One of the more aggressive trusts in terms of its growth pattern. Very aggressive payout policy. Doubt if it would be an acquisition target. | 2007-09-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.430 | Alex Ruus | One of the more interesting oil/gas trusts. Besides being an exploration/production trust, they also have a big weighting in refining with their acquisition of the Come By Chance refinery last year. One of the riskier plays and the biggest call you want | 2007-09-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.400 | Michael Sprung | A great deal of their profitability is based upon their refining spreads. This makes it a little bit more unpredictable. Last quarter was a little disappointing. Looks a little bit pricey at the moment. | 2007-08-31 | |
| WAIT | 30.570 | Sandy McIntyre | Purchase of the refinery in Newfoundland turned out to be good. Used excess cash flow to pay down debt. Right now refining margins are relatively weak. Seasonally, you should buy it in the fall for run-up in refinery margins that occur in April, May and June. | 2007-08-13 | |
| Comment | 30.080 | Michael Sprung | This is really benefiting at the moment through the refining margins. These margins have recently being squeezed and the stock has sold off. Not sure that if the refining margins disappear how secure the distribution would be. | 2007-08-10 | |
| HOLD | 29.980 | John Stephenson | Has done really well. Has a strategy that included buying a refinery. Refining margins have done very well, but are now history until next year. Wait until April, May of next year before buying. | 2007-08-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.490 | Bill Carrigan | Hit a bottom in January, had a nice run up into July and then broke down. Doesn't know what happened fundamentally for this to happen so would avoid. | 2007-07-30 | |
| Comment | 30.760 | Leslie Lundquist | There was a run-up due to very attractive refining margins. The margins are less attractive, so the stock has pulled back. 15% yield, which is quite high. Could be an indication of a distribution cut. | 2007-07-25 | |
| Comment | 31.910 | Ben Cheng | Many investors are questioning where refinery crack spreads will be by the end of the summer, so the price has dropped. | 2007-07-23 | |
| HOLD | 34.000 | Alex Ruus | Yield of about 13%. This is one of the more interesting energy trusts because of the refining asset they bought. Expect it will go higher. | 2007-07-18 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 34.340 | Bruce Campbell | Purchased refinery at Come By Chance in Newfoundland. Crack spreads have been wider in the last couple of quarters. Production side has been a little weak. He is getting a little twitchy because he thinks the spreads will contract and the stock may pull back some. Like it long-term, but at this price he’s a little nervous. | 2007-07-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.730 | Michael Decter | Not keen on this one. Would prefer Vermilion Energy (VET.UN-T). Not as sure on the stability of the distributions. | 2007-06-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.620 | Michele Robitaille | A bit cautious on this. | 2007-06-11 | |
| BUY | 32.800 | John Stephenson | Is into refining.
They were in the right place at the right time. They are cleaning up their balance sheet so they are improving. | 2007-06-06 | |
| HOLD | 31.850 | Alex Ruus | Really interesting story. Management tends to make aggressive moves. Highly levered compared to most trusts. An interesting bet on refining. Historically, refining has produced horrible returns, but we are now in a more sustainable area of returns. | 2007-05-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.750 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Diversified by buying a refinery in Newfoundland. This really increased their debt level that he is not comfortable with. Right now, profits are very good from the refinery, but refineries can be very volatile. | 2007-03-20 | |
| HOLD | 27.550 | Michael Sprung | The refinery acquisition in Newfoundland is interesting. Longer term, it might help to stabilize the distribution level. Wouldn't buy at this time. | 2007-03-16 | |
| BUY | 26.680 | Norman Levine | Recently acquired a refinery in Newfoundland, which changed their structure. If you're looking for a refinery play, this is probably a good one, but is not a pure play. | 2007-03-13 | |
| Comment | 26.680 | Ben Cheng | Recently acquired an East Coast refinery, which significantly changes the outlook for this company. Assets in the western basin are middling to below average. Faces a considerable amount of challenge operating the refinery, but refinery's are very much in demand. | 2007-03-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.100 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Recent cash flows have been doing quite well. Most of the time, refineries are not very profitable. This refinery went bankrupt once and had 2 fires. Debt levels are a bit too high. Distribution could be at risk. | 2007-02-23 | |
| Comment | 24.150 | Robert Toole | Acquired a refinery in Newfoundland last year. Have been successful in financing this but probably have a little bit more equity financing to go. The refinery benefits from lower crude prices. | 2007-01-18 | |
| SELL | 23.710 | John Stephenson | With all the problems of Earl T. trusts, this one has them all. | 2007-01-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.930 | Michael Simpson, CFA | There is a disconnect between owning properties in the west and a refinery in Newfoundland. The refinery is quite old and has had a couple of fires. Had some concerns that the cap ex numbers for the refinery were quite low. Too much debt. | 2007-01-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.150 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Not a fan of energy trusts. Although they are growing, they are issuing so many shares there is a decline in production per share. He is shorting this one in his fund. | 2006-12-27 | |
| HOLD | 26.150 | David Cockfield | A question mark. A third of their assets are in a refinery. Would want to see how it performs. | 2006-12-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.750 | Michele Robitaille | Expect it will be challenged over the near term as they did a fairly significant refinery acquisition and will probably have to come to the capital markets to fund it. | 2006-12-15 | |
| BUY | 26.550 | Norman Levine | It not only produces oil/gas, but also has a refinery in Come By Chance, Newfoundland. Unfortunately the timing was just when the trusts got hit. Likes refining business. | 2006-12-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.830 | Ben Cheng | Recently acquired Viking Energy. Recently purchased a heavy oil gas refinery in Newfoundland. Feels they are taking on a bit more than they can chew. | 2006-12-01 | |
| SELL | 26.570 | Robert Lauzon | Higher debt levels then he likes. Recently purchased a refinery in Newfoundland and have had financing problems because of the governments ruling. Grown by acquisitions. | 2006-11-24 | |
| BUY | 27.010 | Ravi Sood | A great name. Acquired a refinery, which created a lot of chaos in re-pricing the issue. High yield. | 2006-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.350 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Acquired a refinery in Newfoundland. Not big fans of a trust owning a refinery because profit and cash flow are quite cyclical. Have raised capital through a debenture and equity issue and will have to raise more. | 2006-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.930 | Robert Toole | Recently acquired a refining facility in Newfoundland. This puts a risk dynamic into it that wasn't there before. With the fall of crude, the crack spread has fallen off fairly dramatically. 14% yield. | 2006-10-27 | |
| HOLD | 32.580 | David Cockfield | Had been concerned about it. More recently have got their balance sheets in better shape. Reasonably hopeful they can keep their distributions up. 14% yield. | 2006-10-26 | |
| HOLD | 29.900 | David Cockfield | Acquiring North Atlantic Refining. A little concerned about them. Payout ratio is fairly high. Wouldn't buy at this time. | 2006-10-05 | |
| BUY | 31.390 | Michael Sprung | Purchased a refinery in Newfoundland and the earnings should be accretive. Distributions should remain stable for the foreseeable future. 14.5% yield. | 2006-09-19 | |
| HOLD | 31.180 | Benj Gallander | In pretty good shape re distributions to cash flows. Payout is very good, relative to the stock price. Wouldn't buy at this time. | 2006-09-14 | |
| WAIT | 31.760 | Bruce Campbell | Recently purchased a refinery in Newfoundland. Becomes the first trust to become an integrated. Bought it very cheaply. Probably need about $700 million in equities, so wait on the new issue before buying. | 2006-09-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.400 | Robert Lauzon | An oil weighted trust. Has a higher degree of leverage then he likes to see. Purchased a refinery in Newfoundland, which is a totally new area for them. Gasoline prices have decreased which shows the risks involved. Needs to raise about $7 million equity so there will be a lot of stock coming to the market in the next few months. | 2006-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.400 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Acquired Come by Chance refinery in Newfoundland. Right now, refineries are generating good cash flows but it is even more of a volatile industry than oil/gas. Would be concerned about future volatility. They need a unique set of skills to bring on board for refinery activities. | 2006-09-08 | |
| HOLD | 33.040 | Gavin Graham | Bought a refinery in Newfoundland. Very high yield of almost 14%. Payout ratio has come down. Have a lot of undeveloped land. On his radar screen. | 2006-09-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.750 | Bill Harris | A pretty unique management team. Took a fairly hairy bunch of assets and did a fantastic job with it. Has a problem with energy trusts longer term as they tend to have a production tail that will taper. | 2006-09-01 | |
| WATCH | 34.110 | John O'Connell, CFA | Have been very acquisitive. Good size trust. Buying a refinery in Newfoundland, which is a big acquisition and will have to raise a lot of money to pay for it. Keep an eye on how they finance it. | 2006-08-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.590 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Acquired Viking and paid a reasonably fair price. Announced today that they had bought Come By Chance refinery in Newfoundland for $1.6 billion. Likes this, but is concerned that this is a new business for them and that the refining and marketing will be controlled by the seller. | 2006-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.690 | Bill Carrigan | Broke some support. Would be careful of anything energy-related. The yield is too high which suggests problems. | 2006-07-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.330 | Greg Guichon | Oil-based trust with a yield in the 14% range. Payout ratio is in the 70% range. The assets they took on from Viking are not the highest quality. Sold his holdings because of the integration risks. | 2006-07-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.200 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Merged with Viking and neither were on his top lists. Viking had heavy oil assets and Harvest had a short reserve life. Will watch to see how it performs. | 2006-06-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.500 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Oil/gas trusts are at risk as the price of natural gas has been very weak and the costs of production has risen substantially. Sector has done well for many years but there is a risk of distribution cuts as well as a multiple contraction. | 2006-06-05 | |
| BUY | 34.000 | Michael Simpson, CFA | If oil prices stay were they are, this trust will do well. Has grown dramatically through the years, both organically and through acquisitions. Have a shorter reserve life than the average. | 2006-06-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.200 | John Stephenson | This wouldn't be one that he would own in royalty trusts. Have had a 21% distribution cut a couple of months ago. Has a lot of heavy oil. Have had some production misses. | 2006-05-19 | |
| HOLD | 32.570 | Robert Lauzon | Has merged with Viking and there is some integration risk. Better royalty trusts available. Has a lower than average reserve life. | 2006-05-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 35.640 | David Baskin | Got some had publicity in the newspaper this morning. You would be better off with a higher quality one. | 2006-04-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | 33.950 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Acquired Viking Energy Trust which he owned. Their capital spending is increasing. Payout ratio is 110/115%. Not a bad trust, but there are better opportunities out there. | 2006-03-31 | |
| WAIT | 34.160 | Robert Lauzon | He just sold his holdings. Has just merged with Viking Energy and he wants to let that story play out and see how they integrate as it was a fairly substantial acquisition. | 2006-03-24 | |
| HOLD | 32.960 | Bruce Campbell | He used to own Harvest Energybefore the merger with Viking . It is down a liitle because of the situation and gas has been weak. Fine longer term. Still hold. | 2006-03-06 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 35.490 | David Cockfield | Have done a good job. Their acquisitions have given them diversification. A good hold and would buy on any weakness. | 2006-02-17 | |
| SELL | 34.130 | Ravi Sood | Liked it better before the merger with Viking. May be a little bit overvalued now. Would switch into a Canetic Resources (CNE.UN-T) or Penn West Energy (PWT.UN-T) which are much cheaper and have a potential upside bump from greater exposure to US investors. | 2006-02-10 | |
| BUY | 32.500 | John Stephenson | 2/3 oil and 1/3 gas. Recommended. Payout ratio set low enough that it’s attractive. Grown through acquisition. | 2006-02-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 37.190 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Merging with Viking Energy (VKR.UN-T) in the New Year. If you are currently a Harvest owner distributions will be coming down. | 2005-12-30 | |
| BUY | 37.900 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Merging with Viking Energy (VKR.UN-T) This is good as it gives stronger management, a better slate of properties and better assets. | 2005-12-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 37.180 | Robert Lauzon | Combining with Viking (VKR.UN-T). Owns some Viking and will probably sell before the merger. Integration risks could be high. | 2005-12-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 35.320 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Fairly well managed. Somewhat concerned about the heavy oil content which gives it another element of risk. Has done very well. He is taking a wait and see attitude on it. | 2005-08-15 | |
| BUY | 29.670 | Dean Orrico | Came out in the last few years with a low reserve life index, so they avoided it. Management has done a tremendous job in increasing their reserve life index to about 8 years. | 2005-07-29 | |
| BUY | 28.000 | Bruce Campbell | Very much likes what he sees. A good trust that has shown that they can grow. Has a heavy oil side. Probably doesn't have as much downside as some of the conventional oil. | 2005-07-14 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 27.050 | John Stephenson | Has had a nice little run. If buying, he would probably wait for a little bit of a pull back. Likes that it has a little bit more of an oil focus. Has a reasonably decent reserve life and a modest payout ratio. | 2005-06-30 | |
| BUY | 22.540 | Robert Lyon | Has done a good job. Deals primarily in oil & gas. Unit price has done very well over the last 18 months. Very smart acquirer. Pays a good yield to investors. | 2005-05-04 | |
| BUY | 24.150 | Dean Orrico | Focuses on oil/gas trusts with a relatively long reserve life and generally have very strong netbacks in cash flow. This one came out as a very low reserve life trust and because a lot of its assets were heavy oil, higher costs and lower cash flow. Management team has given very strong performance, edging up their reserve life index, improving their operating cash flow. Now taking a harder look at this one. Not a bad name over all. | 2005-04-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.620 | Bill Shaw | The reserve life is a little bit shorter than the average royalty trust. Have done a great job in acquiring properties. Fully priced. Would probably take profits in the sector right now. | 2005-02-22 | |
| BUY | 22.750 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Likes this trust. Did a great job of diversifying out of heavy oil into light oil and natural gas. Continues to trade below its peers. | 2004-12-29 | |
| WEAK BUY | 21.950 | Dean Orrico | They prefer trusts with longer reserve life and low pay out ratio. This one has a relatively low reserve life. Could be treated as a trading vehicle. | 2004-11-19 | |
| BUY | 21.250 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | A heavy oil play which trades at a discount in the market. Has one of the lower payout ratios which is good. Good performer. | 2004-11-05 | |
| BUY | 23.800 | Matt Baillie | An oil play. Cheaper than a lot of the other trusts. Conservative payout ratio and can grow organically. | 2004-10-22 | |
| WAIT | 21.850 | Greg Guichon | History included a very short reserve life, but a very high payout. Have been increasing their reserves. Recently made a good acquisition with Encana and obtained property at a very good price. May be ahead of itself. | 2004-10-08 | |
| VAGUE | 16.390 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | In heavy oil. Has a relatively short reserve life of about 7 1/2 years. There are others he likes better. | 2004-07-21 | |
| HOLD | 12.470 | Ben Cheng | An interesting trust. One of the two trusts that focuses on heavy oil. Will do better in reserve write downs. Probably wont move up. | 2004-02-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.500 | Garth Jestley | Has a short reserve life index of about six years. | 2003-11-07 | |
| WEAK BUY | 10.100 | Lou Schizas | Most production is in heavy oil. Reserve Life Index is only about 4 years. 50% of cash flow is distributed and balance is to increase the RLI. | 2003-06-10 | |
| BUY | 10.250 | Brian Prokop | Short reserve life, but good distributions. Higher risk. | 2003-04-03 | |
Experts that have talked about Harvest Energy Trust
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