| TOP SHORT | 120.700 | Paul Harris, CFA | Earnings are going to come down, but they are one of the survivors and have stayed out of the issues of sub-prime. They are a global company. They are one of the top 5. | 2008-09-29 | |
| Comment | 114.500 | Gavin Graham | Investment banking models are no longer going to be as profitable. Now must play by the commercial banking rules of only 9 or 10 times leverage. Would prefer Canadian commercial banks. Today's 24% drop is a reflection of short-term liquidation. It will survive but it is questionable if you will make much money over the next 4 to 5 years. | 2008-09-17 | |
| SELL | 158.000 | Laura Wallace | Wouldn’t touch any of these investment banks yet. Expect there will continue to be earnings disappointments. This has been the best one. There will be a slowing in investment activity and a slowing in M & A. | 2008-08-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 166.590 | Paul Harris, CFA | Premier investment bank globally. Has stayed away from the mortgage issues. They will be able to grow their business a lot faster than anyone else. Trades at around 8.5X earnings. Management has done a great job on the risk side. | 2008-08-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 180.780 | Norman Levine | The premier Wall Street investment bank. A lot has come out of it so maybe too late to Short. Not optimistic on investment banking stocks. They don't have a lot of product to sell. | 2008-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 170.160 | Laura Wallace | Was the best investment bank by a country mile. However expensive relative to the opportunities. Trading about 2X book value. There will be increased regulations on the investment banks and that will impact margins, especially on this one. Wait to see what the legislation will be and how regulated these companies will be. | 2008-07-10 | |
| BUY | 169.020 | Gordon Reid | Very good entry point. Only 17%-18% is Capital Market business. ROE averages about 20%. | 2008-07-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 183.650 | Paul Harris, CFA | Because of the credit crunch a lot of these companies valuations have collapsed. This one is a premier investment bank and was not involved in the credit issues. Trading at 8X earnings. Beat estimates in their last quarterly numbers. | 2008-06-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 177.200 | Paul Harris, CFA | When a market is coming out of a financial crisis, you want to buy the best company. This is one that didn't have all the issues on the debt side. They were able to get out of it and hedged their position. Trading at about 11X earnings. | 2008-05-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 188.790 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trading at about 8X earnings. A global franchise in the equity, M & A business. They will continue to do well. The best Company in the sector. | 2008-04-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 164.200 | Alan Kral | Basically dodged the bullet with sub prime mortgages, etc. Could be opportunities for traders. Highest quality investment bank you can find. Expects additional regulations for investment bankers creating significant pressure on the stock and will be lack lustre for the next couple of years. | 2008-04-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 176.530 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Apr 12/07. Down 14%.) Has survived and will continue to survive going forward. His model price is $192.80, a 9% differential. If the financials turn around, this will be the main guy going forward. | 2008-04-03 | |
| WAIT | 168.140 | Norman Levine | Is the premier investment bank in the world. Their ability to generate profits in the near future has evaporated. Investment banks are very highly leveraged, this bank isn’t as bad. A great company, one day it will be great again. Buy when there’s more stability in the market. | 2008-03-27 | |
| WEAK BUY | 166.490 | David Burrows | Is the highest quality of the bunch of financials. It could have a bounce here. The problem is they could have a short term bounce, but the earnings picture is not overly rosy.
He says you could trade on the bounce but he's not going to... | 2008-03-19 | |
| BUY | 163.010 | Gordon Reid | Being hurt along with the other investment management businesses. Really doesn't have a large business in the capital markets area. About 70% of revenues and earnings come from proprietary trading activity, only 17% from capital markets. Trading at less than 10X earnings for 2008 and 7X for 2009. Trading at about 1.6 price to book. | 2008-03-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 178.410 | David Burrows | (A Top Pick Feb 20/07. Down 20%.) He is short the financials. Uses ProSh UlShrt Financial E.T.F. (SKF-A), which goes up when the financial sector goes down. Spreads that brokers have to pay to borrow money have continued to widen. | 2008-02-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 198.550 | Gordon Reid | (A Top Pick Oct 16/07. Down 11.7%.) Did pretty well in the subprime market and even made some money off it. A great reason to buy them. Unlike a lot of the other brokerages, it isn't built around M & A activities, underwriting and capital markets. 70% of their business comes from principal trading. Trading at about 7X earnings. | 2008-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 202.670 | Ross Healy | FMV has collapsed. Could be some legal problems down the road. | 2007-12-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 204.160 | Charles Bobrinskoy | Has had a spectacular quarter, but in his opinion it is too much in favour. Trades at about 2.3X book, which is too high for him. | 2007-12-19 | |
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| HOLD | 217.480 | Brian Acker, CA | This stock is right on his model price of $223.65. In the last few weeks he has had positive earnings revisions. | 2007-11-20 | |
| BUY | 209.940 | Don Lato | Has been hammered in the last 5 or 6 trading days. Paying a large bonus to their employees. | 2007-11-08 | |
| BUY | 240.210 | Paul Harris, CFA | Has done very well and has actually bounced back from the August lows. There is lots of volatility in these companies. Good global franchise. There may be more downside but a good price. | 2007-11-01 | |
| BUY | 225.120 | David Baskin | They've escaped the subprime mess. | 2007-10-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 224.830 | Gordon Reid | trading at 2 times Bookvalue, thinks it could go to 2.7 times book.
| 2007-10-16 | |
| SELL | 228.020 | Norman Levine | Has been the biggest moneymaking machine in US financial services sector for a number of years. Expects this to continue. At the moment, it is probably getting in the higher risk area, back where it's old top was. Feels markets will start to weaken. If you own, take some profits. | 2007-10-02 | |
| BUY | 183.610 | Alan Kral | The leading investment bank in terms of reputation and its ability to deliver earnings. Somewhat like a public hedge fund in the way it makes its money. All of these companies are under a cloud 1) will they be able to make money going forward and 2) will | 2007-09-10 | |
| SELL | 170.950 | Peter Brieger | Price/earnings ratio has been 8 to 9 times. The reason for this low ratio has been that so much of their profits came from either trading or the issuance of subprime paper, etc. Would be very cautious on this. | 2007-08-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 179.730 | Richard Croft | (Using this as an example.) He suggests writing bullish PUT spreads. Sells a $190 PUT obligates him to buy the stock at this price until Jan/08. Buys a $160 PUT in case he is wrong and the stock collapses and this gives him limited risk on the downside. | 2007-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 177.890 | Brian Acker, CA | Brokers have been severely hit. Great opportunity. Would also buy Lehman (LEH-N), Morgan Stanley (MS-N), Bear Stearns (BSC-N) and Merrill Lynch (MER-N). They are all raving buys here. | 2007-08-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 189.000 | Veronika Hirsch | She has a Short on this stock because they are so involved in the privatization and private equity deals. | 2007-08-01 | |
| BUY | 218.960 | Paul Harris, CFA | Has managed risk very well. | 2007-06-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 219.490 | Brian Acker, CA | Did well in the past.
| 2007-05-02 | |
| Comment | 216.750 | Peter Brieger | Caller - Which bank for RRSP, Goldman Sachs (GS-N) or Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). If a more conservative bent with international exposure, he would opt for BNS. However, Goldman Sachs is one of the best investment banks and not hideously expensive, but can be volatile. | 2007-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | 214.520 | John Manley | Has been weak against the markets but broke out quite strongly today. This is a short-term buy. | 2007-04-16 | |
| BUY | 199.000 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trades at a very low multiple relative to other major investment banks. As the best investment banking franchise in the world. One thing that buffers their earnings is their great asset management business. | 2007-03-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 220.940 | David Burrows | Best-performing group in earnings this quarter was financial services, specifically investment dealers. This is a play on asset management, global trading volumes and investment banking. Trades at 11 X earnings. | 2007-02-20 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 208.780 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Has had a pretty nice uptrend from September. Would be inclined to wait for a pullback to about $179 before buying. | 2007-01-30 | |
| WAIT | 200.000 | Paul Harris, CFA | Great company and incredibly well run and has had wonderful earnings over the last little while. 2006 was a good year for acquisitions and mergers but expectations may be too high for the next year. Wait for the 1st quarter to see if there is a pull back where you can buy the stock cheaper. | 2006-12-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 194.800 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trading around 11 X next year’s numbers and well below market’s expectation. Merger/acquisitions have been strong for the last 1.5 years. People’s expectations on earnings are too high and this will probably languish or come off. | 2006-11-30 | |
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| WEAK BUY | 147.060 | Richard Croft | If we do start to see a turnaround come out of the US, options on this are pretty cheap if you really want to take a flyer on a company. Wait for November on this one. | 2006-08-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 147.030 | Richard Croft | (A Top Pick Nov 22/05. Up 11%.) A Jan/07 call. | 2006-05-18 | |
| HOLD | 162.040 | David Driscoll | Like all the investment banks, this has had a huge run. As long as the economies continue to do well, and underwriting fees continue to grow because more deals are being done, they will do well. | 2006-04-06 | |
| TOP PICK | 132.600 | Richard Croft | This a Jan 07 call which is a little more aggresive. The company has announced that they are buying back about another $4 billion of their stock. Earnings look pretty good. It could be a pretty decent year if this market continues. | 2005-11-22 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 115.160 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick June 9/05. Up 15%.) Loves financials, brokerages. Hit another new high. Keep holding. | 2005-09-07 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 109.250 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Jun 9/05. Up 11%.) Was a mispriced stock. Sold it at a profit. | 2005-08-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 99.950 | Brian Acker, CA | Looks at brokerages and thinks they're dirt cheap. | 2005-06-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 102.110 | David Baskin | Smart guys and really know their business. Seem to make money on the investment side, proprietary trading side. the advice side, etc. Pretty expensive. Would look at it at $80. | 2005-05-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 90.200 | Francis Gannon | | 2004-09-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 84.250 | Brad Willock | (Past top pick June 11/04. Down 10%.) Has not done well. The valuation is extremely compelling. If you had 1/2 years of patience, this is where you would buy the stock. | 2004-08-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 93.010 | Brad Willock | Contrarian pick. Number one in there market. Cheap at this price. | 2004-06-11 | |
| BUY | 100.480 | Paul O'Neil | Investment banking is back. Very high-margin business. Very attractive valuation. Likes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros. | 2004-01-16 | |
| BUY | 92.820 | Noah Blackstein, B.A., CFA | This and Lehman Brothers are two favourite brokers. | 2001-04-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 91.780 | Brian Acker, CA | Will go up on tech rally to $129. | 2001-04-16 | |
Experts that have talked about Goldman Sachs
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