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| TOP PICK | 115.880 | Brian Acker, CA | 9% upside. Lower risk play. You can sleep at night even if something goes wrong in Europe. Could go up to $200 if all clear signal is given in terms of financials. There are good signs that this is ready to get back to where it was after 5 years. | 2012-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 107.680 | Norman Levine | Trading volumes are low and investment banking has not that great recently. | 2012-01-19 | |
| BUY | 104.310 | Paul Gardner, CFA | Just reported and beat their numbers. Believes the US system in stabilizing so this would be a good entry point. This is an investment arm so it needs to have global investments going on. | 2012-01-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 98.960 | Gavin Graham | Reporting next week. Just barely above where it was at the time of the credit crisis. Outlook for its market making activity and its volume of trade is not good. | 2012-01-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 91.300 | Mohsin Bashir | Pretty much every US Bank has been facing challenges. The biggest issue is their ability to pick up margins in a volatile market with low interest rates. If you want to have a focus on the capital market side of the business, this is where you would go. Would prefer the retail banking side. | 2011-11-21 | |
| Comment | 99.290 | Jim Huang | Extreme volatility going on and you just don't know. Lost money in 21 days in the last quarter. You can take advantage of the volatility and use some option plays but the low valuation will be sustainable for quite a while. | 2011-11-14 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 105.570 | Paul Harris, CFA | (A Top Pick Nov 25/11. Down 33.74%.) Still likes. | 2011-11-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 103.980 | Norman Levine | Buys in small amounts and writes them out on covered calls at about $5 ahead. Good strategy? Risk profile is higher than what he would normally invest in. Poor performer. Although an investment bank, it is really a bank and he would prefer that it wasn’t. | 2011-10-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 103.980 | Gordon Reid | (Top Pick Oct 20/10, Down 34.59%) With problems in Europe, they are staying very cautious. They are not likely to in this kind of environment. | 2011-10-24 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 97.860 | Don Lato | Has been hurt badly through the macro issues, the same as the US financials in general. The premier company in the investment banking business. Good time to start nibbling. Trading just a shade over BV. | 2011-09-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 107.490 | Marc-Andre Gaudreau | 4.1% due Nov 3/15. With what is happening in the market and that financials have under preformed a lot, this one is trading from the spread and almost back to where it was during the crisis. | 2011-09-16 | |
| BUY | 107.060 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trading below book and maybe a little above tangible book. Trading at 9X earnings. Likes the dynamics of the company. Consensus earnings is around $17 for 2012 and if you put a 10X multiple on that, a gives you a $170 stock. | 2011-09-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 132.750 | Derek Webb, CFA | Buying Calls? He doesn't like this stock. Chart shows it is in a bear market right now. | 2011-07-20 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 134.520 | Paul Harris, CFA | (Top Pick Jun 24/10, Down 1.06%) Under the political eye of the world. A great franchise. Investment banking is not going away. | 2011-06-23 | |
| BUY | 137.230 | Bill Carrigan | A key financial and you can’t have a bull market without financials. Have had 5 down corrections and is now back at a key support, which he believes will hold. Point and figure shows deep support last year and the stock and the sector should move higher. | 2011-06-17 | |
| BUY | 136.170 | Gordon Reid | Wants to be involved with US financials because ultimately they have to participate in a US recovery. It’s just a matter of timing. A lot of them have priced in the current environment and are trading at the lower end of their historical valuation. This one is more of an investment centred bank and will benefit from a healthy economy and an M & A cycle. | 2011-06-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 136.340 | Derek Webb, CFA | Not a bank but the chart shows just how sick the US financials are. Wouldn’t touch this. | 2011-05-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 141.460 | Paul Harris, CFA | (A Top Pick May 19/10. Up 5.87%.) | 2011-05-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 161.890 | Don Lato | (A Top Pick April 14/10. Down 13.26%.) Still likes. | 2011-04-06 | |
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| TOP PICK | 160.260 | Paul Harris, CFA | Best global investment banking franchise. Competitive environment has been consolidated. Cheap at 8X earnings. 1% yield. With all their cash they’ll be doing buy-backs, M & A, etc so a lot of growth opportunity. Will make a lot of money when governments sell assts such as General Motors. | 2010-11-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 166.390 | Derek Webb, CFA | (Top Pick Oct 29/09, Down 7%) It was a buy/write - sold calls so he only owned the stock for a month. Doesn’t like any of the financials right now. No earnings growth in Canada and US financials are still sick. A lot of the bull market is hidden because the financials are bringing the averages down. | 2010-11-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 158.290 | Ian Ainsworth | Best of breed. Best leverage to benefit from a recovering economy. Stock was depressed by all the bad press. | 2010-10-26 | |
| TOP PICK | 159.300 | Paul Harris, CFA | International investment banking institution. They have settled all the issues with the SEC. Everything is lined up to do reasonably well in a growing market. Good growth prospects. | 2010-10-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 159.600 | Gordon Reid | They are back in the saddle. Earnings just came up and Investment banking is up 24%. He thinks it’s a good place to go. | 2010-10-20 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 144.580 | Jim Huang | Caller took ½ position and wants to know at what price he should take the other ½. The pre-eminent investment bank. Profit is closely connected to health of the financial market. Highly uncertain in this newly de-leveraged environment how much capital they can deploy into the business. Try to get it at 10%-15% lower. | 2010-09-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 141.810 | Paul Harris, CFA | Think they have settled their issues with the SEC. Trades at 1.1X Book. Has one of the best investment banking franchises in the world. | 2010-08-26 | |
| TOP PICK | 146.990 | Don Lato | SEC charged them for misleading investors in a subprime mortgage product but settled this in far more advantageous terms than he expected. Trading at 1.2X Book versus historically 1.5 to 2X book. | 2010-07-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 134.980 | Paul Harris, CFA | One of the largest investment banks globally. Known for taking a lot of risks in the proprietary banking side and will continue to do so. Trading at about 7X earnings with a little more than 1% yield. | 2010-06-24 | |
| BUY | 135.070 | Ara Nalbandian | Regulatory concerns are driving the stock down along with global credit concerns. Prefers other US financials such as Morgan Stanley (MS-N) that has a little less regulatory risk. Good entry point. | 2010-06-23 | |
| Comment | 135.070 | Don Lato | Trading at book value. They should come through their problems okay. The dominant franchise in the business. Will be punished with some sort of fine or settlement at some time but that is more than baked into the stock price right now. Expect earnings to grow at 15%-20% a year, which would give you a 60%-70% return over a couple of years. | 2010-06-23 | |
| SELL | 142.250 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Prefers to avoid a company with possible criminal charges against it. He would prefer to short it. | 2010-06-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 141.860 | John Zechner | Risk of regulatory investigation. | 2010-06-01 | |
| BUY | 140.100 | Don Lato | With some of the SEC news out and perhaps more to come, prices dropped considerably and it is a good entry point. Trading under BV. Still sees good earnings growth with earning power of $16-$20 over the next year or so. | 2010-05-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 140.100 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trades at 7X earnings and 6X next year's earnings. Earnings have gone up in the last little while even with all the regulatory issues. Great global franchise. | 2010-05-19 | |
| SELL | 137.360 | Ron Meisels | Had a wonderful run and then pulled back. You now have a falling stock and a falling 200-day moving average. | 2010-05-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 148.190 | Norman Levine | Don't buy stocks on the way down. Also, he believes in the cockroach theory in that there is never just one. He expects more things to come out on this company. | 2010-05-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 149.450 | Derek Webb, CFA | (Top Pick Sep 3/09, Up 7% two months) Covered Call Writing: Own stock and write covered Oct calls. | 2010-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 159.050 | Paul Harris, CFA | Benefiting from its global investment banking franchise. They are in the top 5 in every field of investment banking. | 2010-04-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 184.920 | Don Lato | Report their earnings next week. J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) and this are the best of the breed. | 2010-04-14 | |
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| PAST TOP PICK | 174.900 | Paul Harris, CFA | (A Top Pick March 26/09. Up 58.1% excluding dividends.) A lot of their competitors disappeared. Investment banking is not going away. Well capitalized. | 2010-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 174.830 | Don Lato | Things are heating up in private equities, IPO’s and M&A’s. Leader in the industry and will continue to dominate. Trading at 1.3X Book, which leaves room for upside to 1.5-1.6. Bonus payments are capped, which is a win for shareholders. | 2010-03-23 | |
| BUY | 171.940 | Gordon Reid | Has always had the ability to be a little better than the other managers on the street. ROE is fantastic. Expecting a very large merger/acquisition stage in the cycle. | 2010-03-10 | |
| Comment | 150.880 | Randy LeClair | 3.47% due 2014 bond. From a credit standpoint this company has, and will continue to do very well. The real question is, where are interest rates going as well as currency exposure. Corporate bond spreads have narrowed but might have a little bit more to go so doesn't expect a lot of performance from this. | 2010-01-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 169.500 | Stan Wong | (A Top Pick June 19/09. Up 21%.) Still likes. Beat estimates once again. Trades at 9X forward earnings. | 2009-11-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 178.580 | Derek Webb, CFA | Bear Stearns and Lehman went bankrupt and Merrill Lynch is part of Bank of America. Basically got rid of 3 of the 5 competitors. In bed with US government and US has to be completely restructured. Basically a license to print money. Crushed earnings last quarter and think they would do it again. | 2009-10-29 | |
| TOP PICK | 180.360 | Richard Croft | Bull put spread: Sell Jan. puts @21.45, buy Apr. puts @9.60. Net credit $11.85/sh. Your risk is that you are below $180 in April in which case you would have to buy it at $200 and you have the right to sell it at $180, loosing $20 with $11.85 credit. If it is above $200 in April, you are just going to keep that $11.85 credit. | 2009-10-23 | |
| SELL | 183.690 | Benj Gallander | (Market Call Minute) People there take way too much money off the table and shareholders do not get enough. | 2009-10-22 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 188.170 | Paul Harris, CFA | Has run up a lot so there could be a bit of a pullback. If you made some money, consider taking some off the table and then buying it back. Thinks it will be the premier investment bank and should continue to do well. | 2009-10-08 | |
| BUY | 183.640 | David Baskin | Smartest guys on the street. Along with JP Morgan (JPM-N) the only 2 surviving investment banks. Right now there is a lot of investment banking going on. Doesn't think the US Feds will be crushing the investment banks. | 2009-09-23 | |
| WEAK BUY | 170.270 | Gordon Reid | Buy it on good metrics and it will do well. | 2009-09-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 161.660 | Derek Webb, CFA | One of the few investment banks left in the US. A way to make money above and beyond owning the stock is to sell Call Options against it. If you buy at $160 you sell a call option at $165 for October, 44 days away. | 2009-09-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 162.420 | Stan Wong | Went into the financial crisis of 07 and 08 as one of the leaders and have emerged as the leader in the financial services space. Probably the most respected name in the investment banking business. Trading at 10X forward earnings, which is a bargain. 2nd quarter below way everyone's estimates. Estimates for the next quarter and for the full year are going up very quickly. Very shrewd management. | 2009-07-30 | |
| Comment | 159.440 | Brett Hryb | Time to short trade this one? Wouldn't recommend this. Last quarter was fantastic and beat expectations handily. Also sitting on excess liquidity, which could be as high as $70 billion that can be redeployed and could add up to $1 in earnings. | 2009-07-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 163.870 | Mark Grammer | Exposed to every part of investment banking and have proven too big to fail. Too expensive. | 2009-07-27 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 145.150 | Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI | One of the best companies on the planet. Have less competition now. Have paid back the TARP. Going to get back to business and bonuses are going to be flowing back in. Could very easily get back to $130. | 2009-06-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 111.990 | Paul Harris, CFA | (A Top Pick March 20/08. Down 29.9%.) Investment banking business is not going to go away. This is the kind of company that will become stronger, bigger and better as the market changes. Very well run company. Tops in mergers and acquisitions. | 2009-03-26 | |
| Comment | 99.300 | Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA | A fantastic company and likes it long-term. Probably have to raise equity at some point so you have to watch for an equity issue. Just sold his holdings. | 2009-03-19 | |
| Comment | 86.010 | David Burrows | Has a nice series of higher highs and higher lows since November that you can use to recognize inflection points where behaviour is changing. | 2009-02-19 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 97.890 | David Baskin | Never felt the Wall Street investment banks where all that thick. When push came to shove, they were illiquid. A small position might be very interesting. | 2009-02-09 | |
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| BUY | 88.780 | Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI | Looks like it is going to be one of the winners in brokerages. Chart shows a good indication of a trend reversal. Broke above a key resistance point of $80. Will reach resistance at around $120. Use a 10 or 15 day moving average as a Stoploss. | 2009-01-05 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 92.880 | Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA | This is a company that you should own. You will survive this financial turmoil. Has a great backer in Warren Buffett. A long-term hold. Dollar cost average into the stock. | 2008-10-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 122.900 | Norman Levine | One of two brokerage companies left. In the near term, business is a little uncertain for brokerages. Short term, business is still a little uncertain. Long term they will be big winners. | 2008-10-14 | |
| TOP SHORT | 120.700 | Paul Harris, CFA | Earnings are going to come down, but they are one of the survivors and have stayed out of the issues of sub-prime. They are a global company. They are one of the top 5. | 2008-09-29 | |
| Comment | 114.500 | Gavin Graham | Investment banking models are no longer going to be as profitable. Now must play by the commercial banking rules of only 9 or 10 times leverage. Would prefer Canadian commercial banks. Today's 24% drop is a reflection of short-term liquidation. It will survive but it is questionable if you will make much money over the next 4 to 5 years. | 2008-09-17 | |
| SELL | 158.000 | Laura Wallace | Wouldn’t touch any of these investment banks yet. Expect there will continue to be earnings disappointments. This has been the best one. There will be a slowing in investment activity and a slowing in M & A. | 2008-08-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 166.590 | Paul Harris, CFA | Premier investment bank globally. Has stayed away from the mortgage issues. They will be able to grow their business a lot faster than anyone else. Trades at around 8.5X earnings. Management has done a great job on the risk side. | 2008-08-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 180.780 | Norman Levine | The premier Wall Street investment bank. A lot has come out of it so maybe too late to Short. Not optimistic on investment banking stocks. They don't have a lot of product to sell. | 2008-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 170.160 | Laura Wallace | Was the best investment bank by a country mile. However expensive relative to the opportunities. Trading about 2X book value. There will be increased regulations on the investment banks and that will impact margins, especially on this one. Wait to see what the legislation will be and how regulated these companies will be. | 2008-07-10 | |
| BUY | 169.020 | Gordon Reid | Very good entry point. Only 17%-18% is Capital Market business. ROE averages about 20%. | 2008-07-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 183.650 | Paul Harris, CFA | Because of the credit crunch a lot of these companies valuations have collapsed. This one is a premier investment bank and was not involved in the credit issues. Trading at 8X earnings. Beat estimates in their last quarterly numbers. | 2008-06-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 177.200 | Paul Harris, CFA | When a market is coming out of a financial crisis, you want to buy the best company. This is one that didn't have all the issues on the debt side. They were able to get out of it and hedged their position. Trading at about 11X earnings. | 2008-05-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 188.790 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trading at about 8X earnings. A global franchise in the equity, M & A business. They will continue to do well. The best Company in the sector. | 2008-04-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 164.200 | Alan Kral , CFA, CIC | Basically dodged the bullet with sub prime mortgages, etc. Could be opportunities for traders. Highest quality investment bank you can find. Expects additional regulations for investment bankers creating significant pressure on the stock and will be lack lustre for the next couple of years. | 2008-04-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 176.530 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Apr 12/07. Down 14%.) Has survived and will continue to survive going forward. His model price is $192.80, a 9% differential. If the financials turn around, this will be the main guy going forward. | 2008-04-03 | |
| WAIT | 168.140 | Norman Levine | Is the premier investment bank in the world. Their ability to generate profits in the near future has evaporated. Investment banks are very highly leveraged, this bank isn’t as bad. A great company, one day it will be great again. Buy when there’s more stability in the market. | 2008-03-27 | |
| WEAK BUY | 166.490 | David Burrows | Is the highest quality of the bunch of financials. It could have a bounce here. The problem is they could have a short term bounce, but the earnings picture is not overly rosy. He says you could trade on the bounce but he's not going to... | 2008-03-19 | |
| BUY | 163.010 | Gordon Reid | Being hurt along with the other investment management businesses. Really doesn't have a large business in the capital markets area. About 70% of revenues and earnings come from proprietary trading activity, only 17% from capital markets. Trading at less than 10X earnings for 2008 and 7X for 2009. Trading at about 1.6 price to book. | 2008-03-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 178.410 | David Burrows | (A Top Pick Feb 20/07. Down 20%.) He is short the financials. Uses ProSh UlShrt Financial E.T.F. (SKF-A), which goes up when the financial sector goes down. Spreads that brokers have to pay to borrow money have continued to widen. | 2008-02-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 198.550 | Gordon Reid | (A Top Pick Oct 16/07. Down 11.7%.) Did pretty well in the subprime market and even made some money off it. A great reason to buy them. Unlike a lot of the other brokerages, it isn't built around M & A activities, underwriting and capital markets. 70% of their business comes from principal trading. Trading at about 7X earnings. | 2008-01-30 | |
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| DON'T BUY | 202.670 | Ross Healy | FMV has collapsed. Could be some legal problems down the road. | 2007-12-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 204.160 | Charles Bobrinskoy | Has had a spectacular quarter, but in his opinion it is too much in favour. Trades at about 2.3X book, which is too high for him. | 2007-12-19 | |
| HOLD | 217.480 | Brian Acker, CA | This stock is right on his model price of $223.65. In the last few weeks he has had positive earnings revisions. | 2007-11-20 | |
| BUY | 209.940 | Don Lato | Has been hammered in the last 5 or 6 trading days. Paying a large bonus to their employees. | 2007-11-08 | |
| BUY | 240.210 | Paul Harris, CFA | Has done very well and has actually bounced back from the August lows. There is lots of volatility in these companies. Good global franchise. There may be more downside but a good price. | 2007-11-01 | |
| BUY | 225.120 | David Baskin | They've escaped the subprime mess. | 2007-10-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 224.830 | Gordon Reid | trading at 2 times Bookvalue, thinks it could go to 2.7 times book. | 2007-10-16 | |
| SELL | 228.020 | Norman Levine | Has been the biggest moneymaking machine in US financial services sector for a number of years. Expects this to continue. At the moment, it is probably getting in the higher risk area, back where it's old top was. Feels markets will start to weaken. If you own, take some profits. | 2007-10-02 | |
| BUY | 183.610 | Alan Kral , CFA, CIC | The leading investment bank in terms of reputation and its ability to deliver earnings. Somewhat like a public hedge fund in the way it makes its money. All of these companies are under a cloud 1) will they be able to make money going forward and 2) will | 2007-09-10 | |
| SELL | 170.950 | Peter Brieger | Price/earnings ratio has been 8 to 9 times. The reason for this low ratio has been that so much of their profits came from either trading or the issuance of subprime paper, etc. Would be very cautious on this. | 2007-08-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 179.730 | Richard Croft | (Using this as an example.) He suggests writing bullish PUT spreads. Sells a $190 PUT obligates him to buy the stock at this price until Jan/08. Buys a $160 PUT in case he is wrong and the stock collapses and this gives him limited risk on the downside. | 2007-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 177.890 | Brian Acker, CA | Brokers have been severely hit. Great opportunity. Would also buy Lehman (LEH-N), Morgan Stanley (MS-N), Bear Stearns (BSC-N) and Merrill Lynch (MER-N). They are all raving buys here. | 2007-08-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 189.000 | Veronika Hirsch | She has a Short on this stock because they are so involved in the privatization and private equity deals. | 2007-08-01 | |
| BUY | 218.960 | Paul Harris, CFA | Has managed risk very well. | 2007-06-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 219.490 | Brian Acker, CA | Did well in the past. | 2007-05-02 | |
| Comment | 216.750 | Peter Brieger | Caller - Which bank for RRSP, Goldman Sachs (GS-N) or Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). If a more conservative bent with international exposure, he would opt for BNS. However, Goldman Sachs is one of the best investment banks and not hideously expensive, but can be volatile. | 2007-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | 214.520 | John Manley | Has been weak against the markets but broke out quite strongly today. This is a short-term buy. | 2007-04-16 | |
| BUY | 199.000 | Paul Harris, CFA | Trades at a very low multiple relative to other major investment banks. As the best investment banking franchise in the world. One thing that buffers their earnings is their great asset management business. | 2007-03-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 220.940 | David Burrows | Best-performing group in earnings this quarter was financial services, specifically investment dealers. This is a play on asset management, global trading volumes and investment banking. Trades at 11 X earnings. | 2007-02-20 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 208.780 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Has had a pretty nice uptrend from September. Would be inclined to wait for a pullback to about $179 before buying. | 2007-01-30 | |
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| WAIT | 200.000 | Paul Harris, CFA | Great company and incredibly well run and has had wonderful earnings over the last little while. 2006 was a good year for acquisitions and mergers but expectations may be too high for the next year. Wait for the 1st quarter to see if there is a pull back where you can buy the stock cheaper. | 2006-12-12 |
