STOCKCHASE

Sitting on a huge land spread. Just had a new management change. Has been struggling to grow production for several years. Will take a little while for the management team to chew through the properties and divest themselves of non-core assets. On a long-term holding you could do okay but he prefers others.

2011-08-16

DON'T BUY

3.160

Management was chronically over promising. But management had turned over. Have extensive land package. There is no leadership or game plan today. Production is declining.

2011-06-08

TOP PICK

3.640

Doing 13,500-14,000 BOE's a day and expected to average 14,000 a day. Got into the doghouse when involved with the Pasqua and Cardium. Had to sell assets. Doing 37%-38% oil and liquids which is over 50% of revenues. Fabulous value story with BV of $7.97. Has an NAV of $5.48 at the end of 2010. Expecting $1.50 annualized cash flow at the end of 2011.Very cheap.

2011-05-10

DON'T BUY

3.430

Mason Granger

Have not had a good time of things. Let leverage get too high and had to sell key assets that use to be their jewels. Reserve bookings have been in question. Have retrenched and focusing on probable reserves and turning them into proved reserves. Have lost a lot of their luster and the attention of the street.

2011-05-04

BUY

3.740

Likes this one. Has a $5.50 target. Sees an NAV of $5.48. Expecting them to do 14,400 BOE’s a day this year. About 34% of oil and liquids, which will be cash flowing them $122 million. Debt about $136 million. Just over 1:1 debt to cash flow ratio. Could see volumes growing up to 15,000 BOE’s a day by year-end.

2011-04-14

DON'T BUY

4.400

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Stuck in a trading range of $3.50 to $4.50 and he feels it’s dead money. Attractive on a valuation basis as it’s trading at a significant discount at 4X enterprise value to cash flow for production and also cheap on book reserves but feels reserves are aggressively booked.

2011-02-09

WAIT

4.410

Lot of similarities with SU. Looks like a good place to be. $6.00-$6.80 resistance. In short term, some of indicators are overbought. Then it is going to go much higher.

2011-02-08

HOLD

3.910

Buy at $3.50, sell at $4.25-$4.50. In a no man’s land. Looking at flat production growth. Can withstand a low natural gas price.

2010-12-14

SELL

4.160

(Market Call Minute.) Over promise and under deliver from management.

2010-11-26

PAST TOP PICK

3.850

Ron Meisels

(A Top Pick Nov 5/09. Down 30%.) Was above its 200 day moving average and then dropped below. Sold his holdings at about where he had bought.

2010-11-24

PAST TOP PICK

3.860

Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA

(Top Pick Dec 1/09, Down 17%) It was a value play. They have huge assets. He hoped they could execute on a strategy and grow production. They had a number of set backs and he exited the position.

2010-11-08

HOLD

3.870

If you are a believer in the recovery of natural gas prices for 2011, you’ll do quite well. Value of their proven reserves is about $4.25 in a $5 natural gas market. Have decreased their financial leverage so debt to cash flow is about 1X.

2010-10-27

SELL

3.520

Completed strategic review and no buyer could be found. Struggling to meet production. A name to sell or at least not buy.

2010-08-31

BUY

3.310

A brutal story. He was buying it today. He is using it as a way to play an unbelievably beaten up story. It’s cheap on a reserve basis and on a cash flow basis. CEO changed. Limited downside.

2010-08-24

SELL

3.750

Jason Donville

Thinks investment world has lost faith with management. Consider moving to Emerge (EME-T).

2010-08-06

Comment

4.140

Oil and Gas in Western Canada. Sold one of their large assets. Still looking at other options to raise cash.

2010-07-27

DON'T BUY

4.070

Bill Carrigan

Chart is showing quite a bit of weakness relative to its peers. If you are currently in this, don't average down but consider reducing out of it.

2010-07-16

DON'T BUY

5.160

Concerns him. They were looking for someone to buy the company in its entirety but sold a part so suggests they were unsuccessful in finding a buyer. There are much better names to invest in.

2010-06-10

PAST TOP PICK

5.500

John Zechner

(Top Pick Jun 11/09, Up 21.40%) Effectively up for sale right now.

2010-06-01

PAST TOP PICK

5.860

Ron Meisels

(Top Pick Nov 5/09, Up 6% total return) The junior oils are doing better than the senior oils. It just pulled back to its 200 day moving average, which is rising and he thinks this is a good buying opportunity. Stop loss at $4.65. Still has a lot of upside potential.

2010-05-18

Comment

6.320

Jason Donville

Q1 results were quite good. Put themselves up for sale. Doesn't think there is a huge amount of downside. Relatively inexpensive but doesn't expect to see a lot of M&A activity for a while.

2010-05-14

DON'T BUY

7.090

Doing a strategic review so looking at all the terms including selling the company. He would be cautious on this one. Have some good acreage but have to prove up a lot of it and bring it into development, which means capital.

2010-04-16

BUY

7.120

Robert Lyon

A lot of the natural gas stocks have pulled back a little. Now going through a transition of more of a resource play in the Montney and Doig plays. Still have more drilling to do to prove it out but thinks it will be successful.

2010-04-09

DON'T BUY

6.890

Very enviable position primarily in Alberta. 2 cautions. 1) They have put themselves up for sale and 2) have over promised and under delivered.

2010-03-24

BUY

6.800

Michael Decter

Thinks it has room to move to the upside. Could be a takeover candidate.

2010-03-08

WAIT

6.660

Highflying stock way back when. Really fell out of favour compared to pier group. There are doubts about management being able to meet their forecast. It won’t go up in multiple until you have had successive quarters meeting forecast. Great assets, but quiet money – unless they get taken out.

2010-02-16

SELL

5.390

Have not been able to make production targets for the last 3 years. There are questions as to whether they can grow.

2010-02-08

HOLD

5.870

A “show me” story. Evenly weighted between gas and oil. Had some good oil results from the Doik (?) play, which is good.

2010-01-22

BUY

5.460

Has been a bit of a laggard but thinks that energy over the first 6 months is poised to outperform. Sees oil in the $70-$90 range and all natural gas producers will benefit.

2010-01-20

HOLD

5.930

Mason Granger

(Market Call Minute)

2010-01-05

HOLD

4.630

Disappointed in the last year or so by its inability to meet production forecasts. Becoming a “show me” story.

2009-12-11

HOLD

4.700

Good management and have put together a reasonably good set of plays. Lost traction recently. Drilling in a very competitive area in central Alberta.

2009-12-07

HOLD

4.720

Robert Lauzon

Natural gas. Under performer over the last few years because of some production issues. Looks cheap compared to its peers.

2009-12-04

TOP PICK

4.680

Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA

Have executed nicely over the last five years. Hasn't participated in the oil/gas rally. Asset rich with lots of drilling development. Have significant oil as well as unconventional natural gas plays in the Montney. Trading at about 5X net adjusted cash flow. Very cheap.

2009-12-01

BUY

4.650

About 60% natural gas and 40% light oil. Operate in the Peace River Arch in Alberta along with gas exposure in North-East BC. A recovery in gas prices will drive the stock forward.

2009-11-30

HOLD

5.050

Like other gas producers, had a good pop through the summer. Focused in the Montney. A “wait and see” picture. 19,000 BOE's production per day. Transitioning from an explorer into a developer that usually results in some aches and pains.

2009-11-18

Comment

5.050

Over promised and under delivered lately. Not much production growth over the past 2-3 years. Strong land base and a lot of opportunities.

2009-11-18

BUY

5.520

Paul Thornton

(Market Call Minute.)

2009-11-13

HOLD

6.190

(Market Call Minute.) Has disappointed perennially.

2009-11-09

TOP PICK

5.530

Ron Meisels

Had a huge drop in 2008 from $20 down to $2.50. Since then it has made a wonderful base so it is on the verge of a major breakout.

2009-11-05

BUY on WEAKNESS

5.300

Oil/gas producer. Likes their Western Canada asset base. Thinks energy is poised for out performance in the next 6 months or so.

2009-10-28

BUY

6.270

Gas weighted. One of the cheaper stocks because it has disappointed in the past. Very good, large land base. Great M&A target.

2009-09-30

Comment

6.180

Mason Granger

Fairly mixed production between gas and oil. Views Puskwa oil portion as a sort of sustaining kind of asset with a cash flow that will ultimately be devoted to developing the eastern Montney assets. Considerable drilling inventory ahead of them. Always cheap because of the perennially high leverage and history of missing production targets. He is considering buying.

2009-09-24

BUY

6.420

About 60% waited to oil production and the rest in Alberta-based gas, which is suffering. Very interesting exploration program although stock price hasn't performed as well as they would like. Will go through some tougher times but has a history of managing through that. On his radar screen.

2009-09-18

BUY

6.350

Couldn't believe how low it was priced but is now starting to move up. A lot of land. Good management. Good potential for many years.

2009-09-14

TOP PICK

4.350

Has a core area in the Peace River arch of about 1 million acres. Mostly natural gas but a good oil weighting. Balance sheet is in good shape. Think they will do over $1 in cash flow this year. BV is $8.45. Think they will be increasing production by the 4th quarter. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.)

2009-08-21

DON'T BUY

4.370

Very good asset base in the Peace River arch in Alberta. Market has started to lose confidence in management partly because they failed to meet guidance for many quarters in a row. Debt is high. There are better ways to play gas.

2009-08-14

HOLD

4.400

A little difficult to call simply because it is still in the penalty box. Large landowner in Montney and have some diversity between oil and gas. Good management. However they haven’t really performed lately.

2009-07-24

HOLD

4.250

Very cheap and very good asset base however over the past few years they have struggled to reach production targets.

2009-06-30

BUY

4.220

Likes the company and management. Have a large Montney position, which is very strong. Also has some oil. A lot of development possibilities. No balance sheet issues.

2009-06-24

DON'T BUY

4.070

Robert McWhirter

Expecting a pullback in oil and natural gas. Ranks very low in his database.

2009-06-22

TOP PICK

4.720

John Zechner

Natural gas stocks have lagged and he is getting little more positive on gas. There is an oversupply but you can get rid of that in a hurry. This one is in the Montney area and has great growth. Recently raised some financing so the balance sheet is in better shape.

2009-06-11

BUY

4.590

Ken McCord

This screens really well for him. Great company, good prospects but hasn't done much. Natural gas has been part of this problem.

2009-06-09

DON'T BUY

5.040

Just did a financing because their balance sheet was stretched but are still looking reasonably stretched. Also not seen operational growth quarter over quarter.

2009-06-01

BUY

5.190

There are a few more miles left in this one. Likes it because it is 60% oil. Have some great plays in Alberta. Has a lot of excess acreage it can grow in.

2009-05-20

DON'T BUY

5.140

Bill Harris, CFA

Junior energies in Canada require capital. In a time like we are going through, unless you are in the top 10%, you tend to lose the market's attention and it is hard to get back on the curve again.

2009-05-19

VAGUE

4.520

The Debt is about 2.4 debt to cash ratio, but an above average chance of being taken over (guessing at $7). Watch the debt month after month.

2009-04-15

BUY

4.480

Relatively small company, but one of the largest landholders in the Montney. Likes this name.

2009-04-14

TOP PICK

4.130

About 35% oil/liquids and 65% natural gas. Doing about 18,000 BOEs a day. NAV of about $13.85 and $9 plus in BV. $10.75 target when commodity prices improve. Have 1 million gross acres in the Monte play. Great management team.

2009-04-06

PARTIAL SELL

3.850

In a “show me” state. Have had good assets, very large land-based, good prospect inventory. The most recent one that has been promoted is in the Montney, Alberta but they are just off the major trend. Balance sheet is stretched. If you own, consider reducing your holdings. Be patient.

2009-03-26

BUY

2.370

Of all the junior names, this is one that he would encourage you to hold on to. Reserves were up 40% year-over-year. Have an outstanding land position. 3rd largest player in the Montney. Trading at about 3X earnings.

2009-03-06

HOLD

2.940

Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA

(Market Call Minute.) Being gas weighted he would wait for something to happen in the gas market.

2009-02-18

WAIT

3.430

Michael Decter

(Market Call Minute.) Likes this but worries a little about the balance sheet. Wait for energy prices to firm up a little.

2009-01-28

BUY

3.500

Steve Carlin

Good small/mid-cap company. Performing exceedingly well given this strained environment. Doing very well in the Montney plays. Have lots of potential to add reserves in the next 12 to 18 months. Target of $6.50 if they get a cash injection, otherwise $4.50.

2009-01-23

BUY

3.900

Debt to cash flow levels are creeping up on all of these companies. Have over 1 million acres of undeveloped land in the Montney region. Tremendous upside. Have had some really good wells recently. Continue to monitor their debt.

2009-01-16

BUY

5.490

(Market Call Minute.) Very strong company and very inexpensive. Great exposure to Montney.

2009-01-02

DON'T BUY

4.260

Oil/gas producer of around 19,000 BOE's a day. About 60% natural gas. A “show me” stock as it fell hard in late 07 and 08 due to missing their targets. Haven't delivered the per-share growth the market was looking for. Significantly attractive assets.

2008-12-18

BUY

3.580

Probably one of the cheapest ways to get into Montney gas. They are the third biggest landholder in that area. Very inexpensive. Good management. If you hold for 12 months, you should be amply rewarded.

2008-12-03

BUY

4.850

Just reported 17,200 BOE’s a day in the 3rd quarter. Up from 13,700 the year before. Announced cash flow $.80 vs. $.54, so that's $3.20 annualized cash flow, making this an inexpensive stock. 1 X 1 debt to cash flow. Good line of credit. 1 million net acres in a core area of Callay Dawson (?) in Alberta. Very cheap.

2008-11-14

PAST TOP PICK

6.680

(A Top Pick Oct 12/07. Down 60%.) Selloff on this was a little overdone. Overall, the cash flow estimates look reasonable. Have a great potential to expand their Montney play. Balance sheet is fine and they have a great acreage. Great Buy at this price.

2008-10-30

DON'T BUY

6.940

Gas levered story. Over the last 3 or 4 quarters it has been disappointing in growth of production. A “wait and see” story. Great multi zone activities but wait and see if the company delivers per share growth again.

2008-10-21

BUY

9.370

Million acers of exploration plays.

2008-09-30

PAST TOP PICK

10.290

(A Top Pick Sept 14/07. Down 39%.) Just tying in to a new Montney play. Cash flow is certainly there. Tremendous buying opportunity at this time.

2008-09-25

BUY

10.950

A really good name. Possible takeover candidate. Has an enormous Montney land position. Good management.

2008-09-22

STRONG BUY

11.280

Was gas weighted but is moving more to oil. Have over 1 million undeveloped acres in the sweet spot near the Montney and near all the action. A screaming buy. Trading at quite a discount to their peers. (Some of the management left to start another company.)

2008-09-12

PAST TOP PICK

14.780

(A Top Pick Sept 14/07. Down 10%.) Took some profits in the $19 area. Good production growth last quarter. Skewed to light oil and gas. Good management. Still a Buy.

2008-08-21

HOLD

17.450

This will continue to grow. Likes its slate of properties.

2008-07-18

BUY

17.980

With Duvernay Oil (DDV-T) being taken over by Shell, Crew Energy (CR-T), Galleon Energy (GO.A-T) or Storm Exploration (SEO-T) would be good replacements with acreage in the Montney region.

2008-07-16

BUY

19.380

Among the cheaper plays, missed a couple of quarters.

2008-06-23

BUY

18.900

In the Montney play. Impressive land spread. Generates a great deal of cash flow giving several years of impressive growth. Reasonably cheap on a multiple basis.

2008-06-19

BUY on WEAKNESS

18.200

About 50-50 oil and gas. In the Montne gas play. Think they will average just over 19,000 BOE’s a day this year. A quality name. A table-pounding buy at $16.50.

2008-06-05

BUY

17.380

(Market Call Minute.) Natural gas. Going higher. Great land base to grow their production.

2008-05-29

BUY

17.960

A compelling buy. Debt is low. Trading at less than 5X cash flow. Land spread is unbelievable. Have a lot of Montney exposure, a great land package up in Dawson plus all their Pushkwa oil. Great value even valuing in the new royalties that are coming in 09, which will hit their oil production.

2008-04-25

PAST TOP PICK

16.410

(A Top Pick Dec 5/07. Up 16%.) Still buying. Just announced some financial numbers that weren't quite at their target, which worried the market. Trades at Price/Cash flows and NAV multiples the same as their peer group or less, but this management team deserves higher multiples.

2008-04-14

PAST TOP PICK

14.930

(A Top Pick Apr 24/07. Down 13%.) 50/50 oil and gas. Thinks by Winter 08/09 there will be $12 natural gas.

2008-04-04

BUY

16.500

Likes this one a lot. The key thing for them is the big ramp up in production. Think they will be over 20,000 BOE’s a day in the near term because of their acquisition of ExAlta Energy. Have about a 50-50 mix. Have been focusing on the oil side because of the higher commodity price. Their Pasqua play is a great oil play and could have some very strong production numbers.

2008-03-07

TOP PICK

16.730

Basically 50% light oil and 50% gas. Focused in Alberta. Can see some pretty strong cash this year. Nice acquisition.

2008-02-29

Comment

16.880

Some of the companies with deeper exploration targets were really hit with the Alberta Royalty Review. Rumours are that, after the Alberta election, there may be some closure on the unintended consequences. If so, companies like this may get a bit of a break.

2008-02-22

PAST TOP PICK

13.500

(A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Down 11.1%.) Really likes the story. About 50/50 in oil/gas. Buying out Exalta Energy (EXA-T), which will take them to about 20,000 BOE's a day compared to 8600 in 2006. Have high impact wells that are affected by the Alberta legislation. Expecting cash flow of about $3.20 at the end of 08. Very cheap. Balance sheet in good shape. Hold.

2008-01-24

PAST TOP PICK

14.310

(A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Down 5.5%.) 17,000 BOE's, 48% oil 52% natural gas. Likes the mix. Looking for just under 20,000 BOE's in 2008. Still a Buy.

2007-12-19

BUY

14.450

Michael Smedley

With the recovery of oil/gas, this one is in a star area. Good price.

2007-12-12

TOP PICK

14.020

When the market turns, larger juniors will go up before smaller ones. Hurt because of Alberta's royalty review. Wonderful entry point. Very strong management. Over a million net undeveloped acres giving them years of work in very prospective areas. Relatively cheap compared to peers. She will be buying very soon.

2007-12-05

TOP PICK

13.850

50/50 oil and gas mix. Production grew 46% in the 3rd quarter. Have a very big oil play called the Puskwa. Growing production materially.

2007-11-15

TOP PICK

13.950

Just reported numbers and they looked very good. Stock has been hurt by the Alberta royalty issue and expects they will be impacted by about 9%. However, they are growing fairly aggressively. Drilling program has been very successful. Production this year will average 14,000, going up to 18,000 next year.

2007-11-14

PAST TOP PICK

15.760

(Up 6.3% since Jan. 2007)He still likes it and recommends staying with it. He likes the management. Target price is $24 in twelve months. This company is growing despite what is going on with the commodity price.

2007-10-22

TOP PICK

15.790

Traded down fairly aggressively on news coming out of Alberta on royalties. Created a great buying opportunity. Reported 97% success rate in the last quarter, 32 out of 33 holes were hit. A nice mix between light oil and gas. Cash flow is moving from $2.30 to $3.05 next year.

2007-10-12

TOP PICK

15.040

Producing about 13,000 BOE's which is an increase of 40%. Thinks they will be 40% growth in 08 also. About 50/50 in commodity mix. Have 1 million acres they are working in northwest Alberta. Very cheap.

2007-10-11

TOP PICK

16.620

Going for the oil on this one. Netbacks are extremely strong. Have shown some very good production growth. Strong cash flows at $2.30 this year and growing to the $3 area next year. Getting some fairly good drilling results.

2007-09-14

TOP PICK

16.170

Sold some shares so the stock was down a bit. Production profile is very good. Has a nice blend between light oil and gas. Looking for production of 17,000 to 21,000 BOE's by year end. Has cash flow of roughly $2.34 moving up to $2.80.

2007-09-06

BUY

16.090