| Comment | 91.620 | Sandy McIntyre | (Enquiry by US resident.) Being acquired by Teck Cominco (TCK.B-T). For a US resident, you should take the money and run. | 2008-08-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 89.250 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | (A Top Pick Oct 9/07. Up 135%.) Being acquired by Teck Cominco (TCK.B-T). | 2008-08-12 | |
| BUY | 89.860 | Ben Cheng | (Market Call Minute.) A cheap way to own Teck Comminco (TCK.B-T). Likes the prospects for coal. | 2008-08-07 | |
| Comment | 89.080 | David Burrows | If held in an RRSP, you could continue holding. If it's in a taxable account, consider selling the units before the new deal gets done. Take it as a gain as opposed to the tax treatment that will supposedly come on the consummation of the deal. (Editor’s note. Check with your broker.) | 2008-08-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 90.350 | Ken McCord | (A Top Pick March 26/08. Up 60.9% including distribution.) Being acquired by Teck Cominco (TCK.B-T). | 2008-07-29 | |
| BUY | 81.860 | Jaime Carrasco | Good long-term play. About 200 nuclear and 150 hydroelectric plants being built globally but won’t be ready for 7 to 10 years. Meantime electricity will have to be generated from coal, gas etc. Coal will be a prime beneficiary of this. Just reported greater earnings, which should continue. Their coal is used for steel and is 17% of the world’s supply. 12.25% yield. | 2008-07-25 | |
| BUY | 80.050 | Norman Levine | Mostly metallurgical coal. Export most of this to Asia. Has been a great place to be as steel demand and prices remain strong. A decent one to own. 12.75% yield. | 2008-07-21 | |
| SELL | 83.290 | John Zechner | Not buying the coal story right in here. Had a fantastic move. Demand from China is slowing down. Steel market is slowing down a little bit. | 2008-07-14 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 91.250 | Michael Sprung | Just taking a bit of a pause here. Record contracts were recently set for iron ore and they are very well exposed to metallurgical coal. We have just gone through a very heavy period for coal prices. There are concerns on inflation and a slowing economy. If you own, consider taking some profits off the table. | 2008-06-26 | |
| BUY | 88.790 | Pat McKeough | Doesn't think you can call the distribution safe, but it could go up over the next 6 months or a year. If you can accept some risk, this is a Buy. | 2008-06-20 | |
| BUY | 88.790 | David Cockfield | Just increased their payout. Yields about 11%. Should have more upside. | 2008-06-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 80.750 | David Baskin | (Market Call Minute.) Probably a little late to buy it now. If there is another dip like there was last summer, it would be a buy. | 2008-06-10 | |
| HOLD | 81.760 | Stephen Carlin | News on this one is all positive. Very strong coal markets. 6% distribution. Think that metallurgical coal prices will stay strong. Keep a tight stop/loss of 10%. | 2008-06-03 | |
| BUY | 77.960 | Ken McCord | Coal in general tends to move with energy prices. Prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal have gone up. Love the long-term prospects. | 2008-05-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 74.900 | David Burrows | Coal. If spot prices stay at $375 not impossible for stock to be paying $17-$18/unit. | 2008-05-22 | |
| HOLD | 69.120 | Paul Thornton | Coal is a sector that has been absolutely hot. Any coal stocks should be a Hold. The issue with the big winners is that they are quite extended from the start of their run. Long-term fundamentals for coal continue to look very good. A significant pullback of 15% or 20% would be your opportunity to buy. Sentiment will be negative at that point but it is a much better risk/reward ratio for a longer-term play. | 2008-05-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 70.200 | David Burrows | One of the concerns was that prices would come down because Australia saw flooding and that constrained supply. China has really been out of the world coal market for the last 18 months. They have been buying metallurgical coal from the US at $350 a ton and offering 3 and 4 year contracts at those prices. | 2008-05-06 | |
| SELL | 67.510 | Sandy McIntyre | Yield of less than 4%. One-year chart shows a steep climb of 148% and he has a difficult time buying companies like this. He would be a seller on a chart like this. The price of metallurgical coal at the current rate, he feels, is unsustainable. Highly speculative. | 2008-05-05 | |
| BUY | 62.980 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) Likes coal. Run it with a trailing stop. | 2008-04-18 | |
| HOLD | 63.190 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Commodity price is up, but that is reflected in the stock price valuation. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 64.750 | Norman Levine | Outlook for coal continues to be good. Probably has more upside but valuation isn't what it was. In the near term the push on coal prices is going to give it more momentum but it is now much more speculative. If you own, consider taking some profit. | 2008-04-10 | |
| WEAK BUY | 65.630 | Robert McWhirter | The overall coal business is improving. Had trouble getting tires for their monster trucks a year ago, which slowed down earnings estimates. Ranks 30, top 5% in the database. Estimates have been cranked up by 87% in the last 90 days. Expected to earn $5.39 compared to $2.07 in 07. Trading at 11 PE. Earnings are forecast to grow 21%. | 2008-04-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 54.000 | Ken McCord | Coal still is the cheapest, most abundant energy source on the planet. Great yield on Fording. $55 call option. | 2008-03-26 | |
| BUY | 50.050 | David Burrows | Coal pricing is extremely strong and getting better. Business fundamentals are really strong and are not dependent on a strapped consumer. | 2008-03-19 | |
| Comment | 52.900 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | For this one, you have to make a projection on metallurgical coal prices. Most of it is sold into the Pacific rim countries. Most of it comes from Australia and the balance from Canada through this company. It really depends on steel demand, which he thinks will continue for some time. He is somewhat bullish on it. | 2008-03-07 | |
| SELL | 48.350 | David Baskin | Has had a tremendous run because coal prices have gone through the roof. Doesn't know if this is sustainable. If you own, you can pretty well get your money back now and it might be time to do that. | 2008-02-04 | |
| BUY | 38.760 | Paul Harris, CFA | Feels metallurgical coal is going to be much higher in price. Coal assets are really great and this is one of the cheapest ways of energy. | 2007-12-13 | |
| BUY | 33.760 | Derek Webb, CFA | He is shortening energy, but one of his favourite trusts is this one. Coal prices are actually rising quite dramatically right now because of demand from China. This one gives you an incredible yield. | 2007-11-28 | |
| HOLD | 33.000 | Michael Smedley | 7.3% yield. Premier class. A long-term hold. | 2007-11-27 | |
| VAGUE | 34.720 | Dennis Dasilva | Is very cyclical, much more then any commodity typically found. Q3 report was out, but was very disappointing. Thinks it is still well run. If you are looking for stable income, then that meets that criteria. | 2007-10-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 40.060 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Has just broken out of a base. Metallurgical coal prices are going up. Pays an excellent return as a yield. | 2007-10-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 30.250 | Bill Carrigan | He likes coal because nobody likes it anymore. Thinks it reached a bottom late last year, so it had its first advance up earlier this year and is now in a corrective period. One of the better performers in the last 2 weeks. A good infrastructure and energy play. | 2007-08-20 | |
| SELL | 36.390 | Chris Rankin, MBA, CFA | The metallurgical coal has been doing very well. You will do a lot better with almost any of the other coal producers. | 2007-07-13 | |
| SELL | 36.820 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Coal prices are in the mid-$90 range, up from what they where a year or two ago. Future for coal prices is starting to improve. If you own, consider taking some profits and see what negotiations for coal prices bring later on this year. | 2007-07-11 | |
| HOLD | 35.590 | Michael Simpson, CFA | A lot depends on the price of met coal as well as the Cdn$. Have some pretty good hedges, but they roll off in 2008. A Hold if you have longer-term view. | 2007-07-04 | |
| SELL | 32.780 | Andrew Guy, CFA | Dependent very much on the price of coal. At the moment, most of their coal ends up going to Japan and China, which has been a growing demand. However, the key supplier into those markets has been Australia and they really set the price. Treat it as a trade, not a “buy and hold”. Would consider taking profits. | 2007-06-27 | |
| SELL | 34.010 | Michael Sprung | Used to own it, sold it last year because the pricing of coal is very uncertain. Purchasers of coal are from Asia who are erratic in their purchases.
This is the type of coal used to make the pipes in the oil industry which is priced more erratically then the heating coal. | 2007-06-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.600 | Brian Acker, CA | Trading right on his model price. Finding value elsewhere. | 2007-05-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.800 | Veronika Hirsch | Been notorious on non-delivery of production. Coal prices declined which was another reason they had to cut distributions. Analysts are feeling coal prices have bottomed. | 2007-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.990 | Michael Sprung | Sold his holdings over a year ago and has not been looking to get back into it. | 2007-02-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.950 | Brendan Kyne | Has done well in the past 5 years because of the increase in metallurgical coal prices. Feels coal prices will drop this year. Costs are escalating. | 2007-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.310 | Michael Decter | Prospects are mixed over the next period of time. A very competitive market. | 2007-01-18 | |
| Comment | 24.050 | Sandy McIntyre | Contracts for the price of coal for 2007 are under discussion. Great asset base and great management team. Volatile. | 2006-12-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.990 | John Zechner | Negotiations for met coal prices are coming down. No shortage of coal. | 2006-12-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.600 | Michael Sprung | Sold his holdings last year. Demand for coal has dropped. Public is not in favour of more coal plants. | 2006-12-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.000 | Ben Cheng | Has suffered from the falling of metallurgical coal prices and higher costs. Also had problems getting the massive tires for their special trucks. Distributions are questionable. | 2006-12-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.170 | Michael Decter | A little concerned about the outlook going forward. Had some production problems. Would be a little careful, especially if there is a slowdown in economic activity. | 2006-11-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.600 | Michael Sprung | Not positive on this one for the next 6 months. Has not only been hit by the income trust ruling, but met coal is not a good place to be because of the slowdown in the automobile industry. | 2006-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.040 | Michael Simpson, CFA | One of the largest exporters of metallurgical coal. Has concerns with the sector. There are a lot of imports going into China. | 2006-11-03 | |
| HOLD | 27.900 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Has been a difficult story over the last couple of months. If you own, you probably should continue to hold. Will be entering into their annual contract negotiations for the price of coal and prices could drop. | 2006-10-27 | |
| BUY | 28.850 | Michael Smedley | Has dropped a great deal and is probably a buy now. Has a feeling it will come right again. | 2006-10-19 | |
| SELL | 29.100 | Norman Levine | It has had a high yield, but it probably won't last. Trade to get out. | 2006-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.390 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Driven by metallurgical coal prices. They sell to Japan and their biggest competitor is Australia. Depends on how negotiations go between Japan/Australia and Japan and this company. Thinks coal prices are going to remain relatively soft. | 2006-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.500 | Norman Levine | Has been coming off for the last number of months because pricing for metallurgical coal is not as robust as it was. Demand is not as strong. In a cyclical business and has seen its best. | 2006-09-05 | |
| BUY | 34.260 | Michael Smedley | A very great asset. Cut its distribution, which is the reason for the decline in its price. You can hold this one long term. | 2006-08-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.740 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has slowly been going down as coal prices have been coming off, mainly because of competition from Australia. | 2006-08-23 | |
| WEAK BUY | 33.840 | David Driscoll | Coal has had a wonderful ride. Decent dividend yield and the stock is fairly cheap. However, depending on where coal prices go is where the stock price will be. | 2006-08-17 | |
| HOLD | 33.510 | David Cockfield | A little leery of the coal industry as there is some softness in that market. Long-term prospects are excellent. | 2006-08-16 | |
| BUY | 32.990 | Bill Carrigan | It violated a long-term trend line about 14 months ago so there has been a bear and he thinks it is in a long A, B, C correction. The MACD shows that it is rising, meaning it has reached its low. He would be buying. It has not established an uptrend, so to protect yourself put a stop at the last low. | 2006-08-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.600 | John Zechner | Thinks that coal prices are heading south. They were renegotiated lower this year and can see that continuing. | 2006-07-31 | |
| HOLD | 31.460 | Sandy McIntyre | A volatile stock. Dropped quite a bit over the past year due to the decline in price of meteorological coal. Thinks it's dead money for the next year. If you own, don't sell at this price. | 2006-07-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.230 | Brian Acker, CA | Great management team. His model price has been going down and is below the current price. | 2006-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.230 | Ravi Sood | The big capital gains and the big excitement of coal is past. This one is a great way to play coal but is showing tremendous volatility in share price and distributions as coal prices move around year-to-year. | 2006-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.150 | Laura Wallace | Costs have gone up 29% in the latest quarter and a flattening of the price of coal. This leaves their distribution at 100% of their income. If something goes wrong, there could be further distribution cuts. | 2006-07-20 | |
| WATCH | 32.930 | Michael Sprung | Sold this a number of months ago. Has been some weakness in the underlying price of coal as well as problems with production, shipping, etc. Longer term, coal is an interesting play and looking to get back in. | 2006-07-18 | |
| HOLD | 33.750 | David Cockfield | Pretty generous yield. Have cut their payouts. There are volume problems with the coal industry. Have some good orders on the books. Hoping they can hold their 11.7% payout where it is. | 2006-07-13 | |
| BUY | 35.240 | Gavin Graham | Stock is dropped 20% over the last few months and they cut distributions. It still gives a 9.5% yield. Caterpillar could not get enough truck tires which created a problem. Clean, low sulphur coal will be in demand in Asia. | 2006-07-06 | |
| WEAK BUY | 35.200 | Peter Gibson | Likes this company because there is some modest profit growth. Could see 20% appreciation in 12 months. Not the strongest name in the trust area. Have cut their distributions. | 2006-06-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 35.870 | Robert Lauzon | Will be announcing their distribution in the next day or two and expects it will guide a little bit lower because of lower coal volumes. This has been priced in. Prefers playing coal through Westshore Terminals (WTE.UN-T). | 2006-06-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 39.000 | Robert Floyd | Contracts coming from the Chinese have been weakening. Earnings are going to look a little softer. | 2006-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 39.070 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Thinks metallurgical coal prices will go down to $95/99. Have been hit by a lot of cost increases. Would be more interested if it fell to the $30 level. | 2006-06-01 | |
| SELL | 37.520 | Robert Lauzon | Renegotiated contracts resulted in lower coal prices. To play this market, he would prefer Westshore Terminals (WTE.UN-T) which is a little more stable. | 2006-05-18 | |
| WAIT | 36.600 | David Cockfield | Due to technical problems, shortage of tires, shipments would be down. Since then there has been some weakness in offshore markets. Australians may be back in. Yield is over 14%. If it weakens more, would consider buying. | 2006-05-15 | |
| WEAK BUY | 37.110 | Sandy McIntyre | Looking at energy consumption and pricing in China, coke is declining in price. This is an indication that the prospects for meteorological coal are weak rather than positive. He treats this as a trading vehicle and is getting interested when it is below $38. | 2006-05-12 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 40.140 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | In the high $30's could be a good buying opportunity. A great company with good long-term prospects, but the valuation could be a little bit better. | 2006-05-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.000 | Greg Guichon | Has been reducing his holdings in light of their rising costs. It looks like there is a surplus of coal right now. Their customers, especially the Chinese, are turning back orders. | 2006-04-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.050 | Michael Sprung | There’s a real demand for metallurgical coal. Fairly fully priced at this level. From this point on, there’s going to be a real fight as to how the price can be maintained. Would take some profit. | 2006-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.650 | Robert Lauzon | Because it is in the index, some of his funds have to include this. Sold his active positions. Feels the high price of coal is behind us now. Expecting higher freight costs. | 2006-04-07 | |
| Comment | 43.080 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Ran into some problems when they couldn't get tires for their trucks. You really have to have a call on the long term price of coal. Volatile. | 2006-04-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.250 | Michael Simpson, CFA | They recently announced the price they will get for their metallurgical coal, which was a little bit lower than the market expected. They are faced with some bottlenecks in western Canada, including the rail line and shortage of tires for trucks. Longer term he likes coal. If stock price fell more, he would take a look at it. | 2006-03-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.730 | Robert Lauzon | All of his active funds have sold this trust although some of the index funds still have some. There are some increasing costs as well as a concern on the pricing of their coal sales. The best is probably behind it. If you own, wait for the distribution on March 29. | 2006-03-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.890 | David Burrows | Energy has some work to do. If this is a yield vehicle for you, it's a more fundamental play. If you're looking at it as a timely investment, you probably want a little bit of time to pass. They recently guided lower by way of volume and price but higher by way of expenses. Wait for the energy sector to start performing better. | 2006-03-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.930 | Michele Robitaille | Fording Coal is a trust they used to hold in their portfolio and sold in the the fall. Sold because they felt coal prices were going to soften in 06. Fording is in a healthyposition in regards to their distribution. Most of the growth has already taken place. Believes distributions will come down. | 2006-03-17 | |
| WAIT | 47.100 | Kyle McKay | Is having problems finding tires for it's machinery which is causing delays in production. Wait for pricing format before entering. | 2006-03-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.700 | John Zechner | It will be a strong year. Cash distribution will be strong this year. We have probably seen the peak in its price however. Need to be careful in the coal sector as it is at the peak of its cycle. | 2006-02-22 | |
| HOLD | 45.600 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | High quality company. Has a lot of exposure to the metallurgical coal market. They are currently in the process of negotiating 2006 contracts. Fully valued at this level. | 2006-02-17 | |
| BUY | 45.300 | Ravi Sood | Has exposure to coal pricing which has turned out to be strong for the next year. This trust looks undervalued, but expected to be chronically undervalued. Doesn't seem much upside. Good yield at 14.3%. | 2006-02-10 | |
| BUY | 46.800 | Bruce Campbell | Coal is a “once a year sign a contract” around the middle of March. It was felt that the price of coal would be dropping, but recent contracts have indicated it could still be strong. This is one reason this stock is probably going up in spite of other problems they may have had. There could be a short term trade in this one. | 2006-01-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 42.630 | Michele Robitaille | Have guided downwards their outlook for 2006 on both sales and production. Negotiations are just going through now on metallurgical coal and it is expected that prices will trend lower. Doesn't see a lot of upside in unit pricing. The income will probably stay high for the next 1/2 years which will be offset by lower unit prices. | 2006-01-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.910 | Bill Belovay | Feels that metallurgical coal prices are in the decline from here, so the short-term outlook is not all that good. | 2006-01-05 | |
| BUY | 41.060 | Gavin Graham | One of its problems is a shortage of tires. They can't get enough for their Caterpillar trucks and they cost $50,000 each. The pullback is healthy and they will be producing less. The fact is, Asian and the emerging markets demand for coal is not going to go away. This is a great way to play it. | 2005-12-29 | |
| HOLD | 43.980 | Robert Lauzon | Most of his holdings is in his index linked funds and he has sold most of his positions of his active funds in the last two months. Thinks that coal prices have hit their peak. 2006 will be okay, from a distributions standpoint but 2007 and onwards looks a little more cloudy. | 2005-12-23 | |
| Comment | 43.900 | Sandy McIntyre | If you bought this on the basis that coal is a good source of energy over the next 5/10 years and you are going to generate cash flow off the business, then don’t worry about fluctuations. Sold the bulk of his holdings. | 2005-12-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.050 | Brendan Kyne | He is actually short this stock. Not as favourable to the coal market for ‘06 /07 as he was in ‘04/05. Some of the upward momentum in the stock seems to have topped out about ¾ months ago. There may also be some difficulty in getting coal to market because of bottlenecks in rail capacity. | 2005-12-14 | |
| BUY | 47.990 | Norman Levine | The outlook for coal is quite good. They are in the metallurgical coal. Most of theirs is shipped off to Japan and the outlook there continues to look good. If you like a pure play in coal this will be good. | 2005-12-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.460 | Garth Jestley | Sold their holdings in the last 6/8 weeks. Enjoyed a good run. Thinks there will be some down tick next year in coal. More risks on the downside than opportunities on the upside. | 2005-12-02 | |
| WEAK BUY | 41.800 | Michele Robitaille | Has benifited substantially from high metalurgical coal prices. Negotations are going to be developing for coal prices for next year and the general view is that prices are going to soften. Probably not a bad buy at this price, but as the income is paid out, you could see a drift in the unit price. | 2005-11-18 | |
| Comment | 41.300 | James Leung | Have been hearing about a re-organization to a royalty trust, but doesn't believe this will result in any tax savings for unit holders. | 2005-11-11 | |
| BUY | 40.080 | Gavin Graham | Outlook for coal should be good for a few moer years. | 2005-10-31 | |
| HOLD | 40.610 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Q3 earnings were a little bit soft in terms of production. Some of their sales to China were delayed and pushed forward. There is also the problem of getting caught in the biusiness trust downdraft. Sold their position in Sept/05 on the basis of looking at increasing dividends in the near term but trading off against capital depreciation next year. | 2005-10-28 | |
Experts that have talked about Fording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust)
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