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| BUY | 84.500 | Gordon Reid | Likes it. Will do well over the next while. At a sweet spot. Farmers are making money and they like to invest in new equipment. Very positive on it. This is a real recovery in the stock and in the market. | 2012-01-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 74.720 | Gordon Reid | Long term secular growth area. Yields are increasing, farmers are doing well, and spending money on products that Deere makes. | 2011-11-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 75.020 | Ross Healy | Not bad. Has been running up against some technical resistance that it will have to get over it it's going to go any higher. Up in the higher end of its valuation range of the last 25 years in Price to Book terms. Has some long-term risks. | 2011-11-17 | |
| BUY | 74.550 | Gordon Reid | Only about 10 or 11 times next year’s earnings, great play on agriculture. As population grows and food needs increase, farmers are pressed to create more food. | 2011-10-24 | |
| Comment | 71.390 | Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI | $80 is a fairly straightforward looking resistance point and will probably sell off when it gets to that point. Not a tremendous amount of volume behind this. If you own, consider starting to pare back at $75. | 2011-10-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | 71.050 | Christine Poole | About 2/3rds North America but slowly increasing exposure to emerging markets. Long-term play in Ag and descent. She prefers nutrient space. Deer has 15% revenues in forestry and construction, which has not recovered from recession. More cyclical than nutrient space. | 2011-10-12 | |
| Comment | 63.480 | Peter Brieger | Demand for Deere equipment on a worldwide basis, will be substantial. If you have a 3 year time horizon, by all means buy this. Whether you buy today or next week will depend on your short-term view of the market. (See Top Picks.) | 2011-10-04 | |
| BUY | 79.390 | Gordon Reid | A good opportunity to participate in an area that is prospering. | 2011-07-28 | |
| HOLD | 81.570 | Stan Wong | Trading at a 12X forward multiple. Has very good growth ahead of it. Looking at what's happening globally in the agricultural market, the need for farm equipment continues to grow. | 2011-06-22 | |
| WAIT | 81.210 | Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI | Chart does not look good. The decline from the top. Difficult resistance from $98 level. It declined past the $84 level. We could see $78 on this if it continues, so that is a support level. IF it goes above $86, buy it. | 2011-06-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 90.360 | Stan Wong | Has about 20% in construction but most revenues come from agriculture. Longer term will benefit from global trends of population and income growth in emerging markets. Trading at about 14X forward earnings with mid-teens expected growth. | 2011-05-12 | |
| Comment | 96.760 | Gordon Reid | Good company and has done well and in the sweet spot of the cycle. Very concentrated in the US which gives him worries. Prefers Caterpillar (CAT-N). | 2011-04-27 | |
| BUY | 94.450 | Andrew McCreath | Solid blue chip company. Long-term competition is going to come out of China. Will move with corn and wheat prices. If market has a tumble in the second half, it could come down with it. | 2011-03-30 | |
| BUY | 89.380 | Stan Wong | Likes it. It is an extension of the agriculture sector. One of the few companies that are devoted to the farm equipment space. Descent earnings growth longer term. | 2011-03-17 | |
| Comment | 94.090 | Gordon Reid | Has been a good company and at the sweet spot with food and commodity inflation. Farmers have the ability to Buy the equipment now. About 50%-60% of their business is domestic. | 2011-02-02 | |
| BUY | 78.920 | Gordon Reid | Caterpillar (CAT-N) or Deere (DE-N)? Caterpillar has about 70% foreign exposure and Deere has about 40%-45%. Deere relies on farmers to be able to afford equipment. Deere is good and trades at a good multiple, a couple of points higher than Caterpillar. (Prefers Caterpillar.) | 2010-11-10 | |
| BUY | 65.530 | Peter Brieger | Likes it in the short term. Farm income is now projected to be up 5%, which will increase farmers to spend. Emerging markets are going to have to feed their people, which will encourage all kinds of agricultural activity. | 2010-08-12 | |
| BUY | 58.920 | David Baskin | There is an effort to build a huge pipeline for ethanol in Nebraska, which will mean a lot of farmers growing crops for ethanol and buying farm equipment. | 2010-03-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.050 | Don Lato | This is more for a late cycle in agriculture. At 19.5X earnings is not keen on it right now. | 2010-02-10 | |
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| PAST TOP PICK | 43.030 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Sept 4/08. Down 31%.) Weight per bushel of corn was down so farmers’ incomes were down. There is an anticipated decline in farm income of 12.4%. | 2009-09-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 43.780 | Ara Nalbandian | Not a fan of Caterpillar (CAT-N) or Deere (DE-N) because of balance sheet leverages but are also tied to global construction demand, a cyclical recovery. Both of gotten ahead of themselves recently. | 2009-08-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.630 | Ross Healy | (Market Call Minute.) Looking at the analysts’ earnings forecast (his Fair Market Value) it has been plunging. FMV is about $52. | 2009-08-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 45.450 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Aug 5/08. Down 30.84%.) Sold last fall when markets were in the tank. Farmers are going to have to feel more comfortable with 1) outlook for crops, 2) pricing and 3) their income. If you are going to Buy a position, take a small one after they report on Aug 19 and be prepared to wait a bit. | 2009-08-05 | |
| BUY | 41.180 | Brett Hryb | Tied to the resurgence in the overall economy. Their agricultural business is going to be tied to a growth in the international markets. Until the inventory equipment is drawn down there will be demand for new products. For a 3-year time horizon you could Buy or Hold. | 2009-07-29 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 42.100 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Aug 5/08. Down 36.9%.) | 2009-07-23 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 41.620 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick June 4/08. Down 44.9%.) Suffered with all agricultural related stocks. This year there have been fears about weather and credit conditions restraining purchases of new equipment. Long-term it's a great buy but not in the near term. | 2009-06-16 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 32.730 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Nov 6/07. Down 57%.) There were fears of flooding in the US Midwest. Also difficulties in Brazil, which he feels have been resolved. 55% of sales are overseas. Agricultural boom is not over. | 2008-11-12 | |
| BUY | 32.730 | Gordon Reid | Trading at about 6 X earnings. Very good balance sheet with only about 21% debt to total capital. Buy for the longer-term 3 to 5 years. | 2008-11-12 | |
| BUY | 33.270 | Alan Kral , CFA, CIC | Agricultural exports get hurt with a rising US$. US agriculture is very well supported on a subsidy and competitive basis. This company should do well. | 2008-10-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.750 | Pat Naccarato | (Market Call Minute.) Tied to the agricultural sector so he would stay away right now. | 2008-09-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 63.500 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Sept 13/07. Down 2%.) Had a peak towards the end of last year. Went sideways and then with flooding in the US, fears were created that farmers would not be able to buy new equipment. Expecting tremendous increasing demand for foods. | 2008-09-04 | |
| SELL | 66.670 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) Wait for the sector to turn around before buying. | 2008-08-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 66.670 | Peter Brieger | Has been beaten up badly because of worries about farmers’ income being hurt with the flooding. That has turned around entirely. | 2008-08-05 | |
| BUY | 70.960 | Norman Levine | (Market Call Minute.) Along with the rest of the agriculture play, this is probably a Buy. | 2008-07-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 65.150 | Peter Brieger | A mispriced security. People have stayed away because of the flooding in the US and fears it will impact farmers’ income. The opposite is true and farmers will have lots of money to spend on new equipment. Also selling watering meter systems to help farmers conserve water. | 2008-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 64.760 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Agriculture is the one area that will be able to do OK in this very bad market. Trades at 10X next year's earnings. Global demand is very strong. | 2008-07-15 | |
| TOP PICK | 72.130 | Peter Brieger | Key reasons for its decline is flooding in central US. Dept of Agriculture came out with another revision of corn, soy and wheat plantings. Also farm income, which will be up 25%. This is a key driver to tractor and combine sales. Countries where they are well represented are doing very well. | 2008-06-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 71.380 | Peter Gibson | Down 22% year to date and before that it was up 20% year over year, so is basically flat to where it was a year ago. Inexpensive, good ROE level, good profit growth and cheap on a traditional PE basis. Likes it, but wouldn’t touch it right now. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | 77.960 | Alan Kral , CFA, CIC | Need for additional agricultural equipment as demand for food rises globally, will put a wind at their back. | 2008-06-12 | |
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| TOP PICK | 80.650 | Peter Brieger | US and Brazilian farmers have had bang-up years in terms of income so will be looking at new equipment. In Brazil, they are accelerating the growth of sugar cane harvesting for production of ethanol. | 2008-06-04 | |
| Comment | 89.370 | Norman Levine | As long as farm income and grain prices stay high, this company will continue to do well. It will continue to be a good way to play the agricultural cycle. | 2008-05-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 84.400 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick May 16/07. Up 42%.) The more farmers grow and the higher the price for the commodities, they will continue to buy new equipment. Metrics a year ago indicated that 90% of US farmers’ equipment was more than 5 years old. Very cheap. Still a Buy. | 2008-05-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 89.550 | Peter Brieger | Cautious on the market so his 3 top picks are deep value. This is a component of the agricultural industry. An enormous number of US farmers have equipment that is more than 5 years old. They now have money in their pocket and prospects for farm income is pretty good. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 86.970 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Mar 2/07. Up 64%.) More than 25% of their business is outside of the US. Well positioned to take advantage of the ethanol and wheat positions. Also into forestry, mining and recreation. | 2008-02-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 83.300 | Peter Brieger | Very cheap. Farmers love to spend money on new equipment and with the projected increase in the farm income next year this should do well. Deere’s earnings have been very understated and it is early in the cycle. | 2008-02-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 89.260 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Mar 21/07. Up 62.5%.) Still buying for new accounts. Starting to look fully priced, but there would still be a 5% to 10% upside in the next 12 months. | 2008-01-11 | |
| Comment | 88.400 | Norman Levine | This has been a phenomenal stock, riding the upsurge in farm incomes. This will probably continue into this year, but he is starting to get worried that at some point this agricultural boom will get overdone. Could be another bubble. Near-term is okay but be careful for the long-term. | 2008-01-07 | |
| BUY | 88.850 | Alex Ruus | (Market Call Minute.) Agricultural play. Has more room to run. | 2007-12-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 158.460 | Peter Brieger | Fits in with his macro view of the long-term agricultural cycle. Extraordinarily cheap relative to its long-term potential. Short of a cataclysmic change in the weather, there’s going to be a continuing growth in farmers’ income and they love to spend money when they have it. 25% of its business is export sales and 45% is products produced in other countries. | 2007-11-26 | |
| WATCH | 152.060 | Paul Thornton | Hanging in beautifully near its high and really looks undamaged in this correction. Keep this one on your short list. A strong area for several reasons such as the ethanol trend. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 160.300 | Peter Brieger | This is related to the growth of farmers’ incomes, who tend to go out and spend money on new equipment. With the growth of their income this year, 08 and possibly into 09, he can see as much as $190 in the stock. | 2007-11-06 | |
| SELL | 151.040 | Gordon Reid | Has been hot. Built on the commodity cycle. Fears that this has become a momentum stock, where it should be treated as a cyclical. | 2007-10-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 137.950 | Peter Brieger | Tractor sales in Brazil are going through the roof. Farm incomes going through the roof. Rising demand for protein based foods form far east. Slight excess of pension surplus over obligations. | 2007-09-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 126.420 | Peter Brieger | Likes agricultural cycle going forward and we are currently in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Outlook for this relates to farmers income globally. Emerging markets are moving from rice-based diets to protein, which will increase demand globally. Will result in h | 2007-08-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 117.090 | Peter Brieger | Strong growth from demand for foodstuffs globally. | 2007-08-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 120.740 | Peter Brieger | Growth in land in producing food and the need to update equipment to harvest it. | 2007-06-29 | |
| TOP PICK | 120.210 | Peter Brieger | Cheapest of the major agricultural equipment manufactures. Changing of dietary diets of Asians will increase the needs of farm equipment. | 2007-06-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 112.750 | Brian Acker, CA | Massively overvalued. Too Expensive to buy. | 2007-05-02 | |
| BUY | 112.750 | Peter Brieger | 15.6 times next years earnings. Selling in Brazil and India Likes it. | 2007-05-02 | |
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| TOP PICK | 107.000 | Peter Brieger | 90% of combines and tractors in the US are more than 5 years old. Farmers had a great year in 2006, so there will probably be a massive spending program. | 2007-04-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 115.420 | Peter Brieger | 90% of the US combines and tractors is more than 5 years old. Farmers like modern equipment and they have had record cash receipts, and he expects it will spend a lot on equipment. | 2007-03-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 110.790 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price on this up $74.91. That is a negative 32% differential. | 2007-03-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 105.170 | Peter Brieger | World's dominant player in tractors and combines. | 2007-03-02 | |
| HOLD | 103.220 | Norman Levine | Has benefited from the infrastructure construction boom in the US as well as strong grain prices. | 2007-02-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 93.480 | Steve MacMillan | Agricultural economy is what drives this company. His concern is his inability to forecast this part of the economy. | 2007-01-03 | |
| BUY | 73.890 | John O'Connell, CFA | Has come under a lot of pressure recently. There are drought conditions taking place and if we can get some good corn crops with farmers reinvesting their money in ethanol, this could do quite well. Strong balance sheet. | 2006-08-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 65.380 | Brad Willock | (A Top Pick Nov 10/04. Down 4.7%.) Had a nice run and sold some of his position at a good profit. The other half went at a loss. Looking at it again. Has a lot of cash and is very cheap. | 2005-08-31 | |
| TOP PICK | 67.710 | Brad Willock | Stock price moves with the price of corn. Estimate for US farm income is higher than expected. Over $12 a share in cash. | 2004-11-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 59.380 | Nicholas Sargen | Likes the industrial space. The first leg of the expansion has been in smaller size tractors. Expects this will move to heavier duty/higher-margin equipment. | 2004-08-13 | |
| BUY | 69.150 | Bill Carrigan | Has a nice uptrend. As long as it continues its upwards growth channel, it's good to hold. | 2004-04-01 | |
| BUY | 61.100 | Ron Meisels | 2003-11-26 | ||
| WEAK BUY | 46.050 | David Burrows | Has done well. Expects farm equipment to continue to do well but forestry and construction equipment to back off. Prefers Agco. | 2002-10-28 |
