STOCKCHASE

They had a financing. Issue is that they load up with financing every once in a while. As cash bleeds away through their distribution, they will need more cash again.

2012-02-09

BUY

46.640

Eric Nuttall

(Market Call Minute) Unbelievable companies. Smartest expects he has ever met.

2012-01-24

PAST TOP PICK

44.780

(Top Pick Jan 19/11, Up 15.57%) Wonderful Yield. Good in the way they structure the business and how they hedge it. Thinks it will continue. Last quarter’s earnings really surprised on the upside. Purchase candidate.

2012-01-12

PAST TOP PICK

44.780

(Top Pick Dec 21/10, Up 8.29%) Still likes it. Really good managers, good balance sheet.

2012-01-12

TOP PICK

45.700

Andrew Hamlin

Prefers oil to nat. gas. This is a more oily play. 85% exposure to oil. They have been water flooding a serious of its wells to increase their reserves and slow down the decline rates. 2012 will be a big year for their water flooding results. Investors are not aware of the full impact it could have. 10%+ increase in cash flow, reserves are going up and a hansom dividend.

2012-01-11

PAST TOP PICK

43.830

Ben Cheng

(A Top Pick Jan 11/11. Up 6.66%.)

2011-12-20

Comment

42.130

Dennis Da Silva

One of the premier oil companies. Very well respected. Producer of light, high profit oil out of Saskatchewan. Have also moved into the Alberta Bakkens. Very well run. Nice yield of 6.6%.

2011-12-15

PAST TOP PICK

44.260

(A Top Pick Dec 17/10. Up 7.55%.) 6% dividend. Still likes. If buying try to get it under $40. Have a very strong dividend reinvestment program (DRIP) that keeps pushing cash into them so they don't have to do a new issue.

2011-12-09

DON'T BUY

43.680

His model price is $21.07, a 52% downside. Analysts are coming in for next year's earnings of $.75 versus $.91 this year. He has a Short on this stock.

2011-12-02

Comment

44.080

They balance their cash flow they generate from operations between CapX and dividends. If crude oil stays up the dividend is definitely safe. Also, they can go forward or backward to keep that dividend database.

2011-12-01

Comment

43.100

Has a DRIP program with a 5% discount on the stock when they buy it for you. Very good at controlling debt.

2011-11-22

BUY

43.460

Likes it. Bought most recently 3 or 4 months ago. You have to believe in oil and its future. Continue strategy is to acquire perspective land or companies that have it. They want to become the largest independent oil company in Canada. You could buy it here. On of his top picks is a little cheaper. Be patient with this one because it is expensive by some metrics.

2011-11-08

HOLD

43.180

Links the yield. All the oil stocks got hammered but this one held up better than most. Primarily in the light oil, which is a good place to be.

2011-11-07

BUY

42.470

John O'Connell, CFA

Very well run company. Have a good portion of their production for next year hedged.

2011-11-02

Comment

42.570

Michael Sprung

Payout ratio is over 100% but have a very large take up in their DRIP program. Nervous about the risk this imposes because of the dilution of shares. Continue to have excellent properties and positions. Great opportunities in what they can drill and explore.

2011-10-31

WAIT

43.260

Prakash Hariharan

Has lagged some it its piers with the run up in oil prices. People are kind of antsy about how they are going to report this quarter. It’s a cost-averaging name if it goes down. Prefers Baytex.

2011-10-28

PAST TOP PICK

43.420

Bruce Campbell

(Top Pick Oct 6/10, Up 20.40%) Recently sold it. It was a macro call to take down some energy exposure. 6% dividend. Would buy back on market weakness at $40.

2011-10-26

Comment

43.590

Almost all old energy trusts that are still high dividend paying stocks pay out more than earnings but less than cash flow. Watch cash flow, not earnings. Paying out mid-60% of its cash flow. Won’t grow much until cash flow and earnings start to rise. Not in danger of cutting distributions.

2011-10-24

PAST TOP PICK

43.120

(A Top Pick Oct 13/10. Up 14.55%.) Still likes this. Good dividend at close to 7%. Best people in the Bakken.

2011-10-21

BUY

42.860

We are not getting the full benefit of the price of oil. If oil price does come off, he will like up his top companies and will he have the opportunity to get it at a good price. It came into his price range.

2011-10-19

BUY

43.080

Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI

Chart shows a downward trend recently is breaking into a new territory. Add a nice 6% gain today and is breaking above the downward trend. Pays a fairly decent dividend. Put a stop around $41. Expect you could see $45 before the year-end.

2011-10-14

BUY

42.000

Eric Nuttall

Well-run company. Light oil producer. Phenomenal cost structure so can withstand low commodity prices. Pretty well hedged for next year. Yield of 6.6%. $55 approximate NAV.

2011-10-13

DON'T BUY

39.960

His model price is $22.58, a negative 42%. People are so desperate for yield, they are keeping this stock up. Very expensive against its peers.

2011-10-11

TOP PICK

38.490

Lyle Stein

Likes the light sweet Balkin Saskatchewan oil. Good geographical formation. Yield of close to 7%.

2011-10-05

BUY

37.490

Likes the company. Good management. Operating philosophy is to acquire prospective land, companies with highly prospective land and production. Their goal is to become the preeminent producer in North America. Expensive by some metrics, BOE per day relative to enterprise value. Price to cash flow ratio may be on the high side but a prying name for participation in oil and gas.

2011-10-04

PAST TOP PICK

37.930

(A Top Pick Oct 4/10. Up 9.28%.)

2011-10-03

Comment

39.110

Gavin Graham

Oil/gas. Exceptionally well-managed. Suffers when the price of oil goes down a lot. Dividend is as safe as the oil price will permit.

2011-09-29

WEAK BUY

38.120

It is a good one to own long term. He owns it in income accounts. Company may cut its dividend. They are in good plays with good management longer term.

2011-09-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

41.760

Safety of the yield is a tough thing to analyze. This company is pretty conservative on its distribution. One of the best companies with a long life asset. Very profitable company. If it were another $3-$5 lower it would come into his window of evaluation. 6.6% yield.

2011-09-19

Comment

42.310

Recently did an equity issue at $43.50. Very oil leveraged. Likes their Lamintory (?) which is a very high quality oil. On oil companies’ metrics, she looks at price to cash flow. This one tends to trade at a premium to its peers because of the high quality crude.

2011-09-14

BUY

41.430

Robert Lauzon

Dividend is secure if oil is above $65. Pay a hefty dividend. They know they can’t cut it or loose their trading multiple.

2011-09-12

Comment

42.800

Don Vialoux

Starting to look very interesting. Seasonality is August to October. Currently is at a support level and has a nice little break out, out of a trading range. Technically it wants to go higher.

2011-09-02

Comment

43.000

Looking at their land positions in the Bakken, he likes where they are. Also likes the outlook for oil. Cash flow more than well covers their dividends.

2011-08-26

BUY

41.860

Have liked this stock for a long time. Pays a good 6% dividend. Very agile management. Into the Bakken in Saskatchewan in a big way and now getting into the Cardium in Alberta..

2011-08-19

DON'T BUY

42.250

David Burrows

In the short run, there are some risks on energy so you need to be a little bit cautious. He is not in any of the majors that do not pay dividends. Recently sold his holdings in this company. Prefers others.

2011-08-18

BUY

43.090

Eric Nuttall

Extremely well run. You are essentially getting all their unbook (?) For free. NAV is about $55 using $100 oil. If the water flood works you are looking at $60.

2011-08-16

PAST TOP PICK

43.180

Bruce Campbell

(A Top Pick Sept 2/10. Up 22.33%.) Probably has the single best pipeline of locations to drill. Bakken was very wet this spring but have put that behind them now. Production number last week was a little above expectations.

2011-08-15

PAST TOP PICK

40.310

Mason Granger

(A Top Pick June 10/10. Up 10.71%.)

2011-08-10

BUY

42.750

9% high quality crude oil so their net backs are quite high. Attractive yield of over 5%. High quality land position in Saskatchewan and has been accumulating more land in Alberta. Good entry point.

2011-08-02

TOP PICK

42.950

(A Top Pick July 22/10. Up 22.56%.) Loves the oil sector. 6% plus yield. Great management. In a good growth area, Baakens. Good production growth.

2011-07-29

BUY

42.950

Very comfortable with the dividend. They have plenty of cash flow to cover it. Likes its growth prospects. More oily then gassy.

2011-07-27

Comment

43.810

Michael Sprung

A company that makes him nervous to the extent that they payout a generous distribution but it is being financed by the shareholders. They keep re-investing dividends for shareholders, diluting the share price.

2011-07-26

BUY

43.800

Continues to buy in the $42 area. Dividend is safe. They are paying out on 70% of cash flow. Have done exception job of getting great properties. He is sticking with it for now. Main risk is distribution gets cut, but not sure if market is paying for distribution.

2011-07-21

PAST TOP PICK

42.000

(A Top Pick Jan 19/11. Down 2.75%.) Still likes.

2011-07-15

TOP PICK

40.770

Ben Cheng

(A Top Pick May 12/10. Up 4.94%.) Has been a lot of pressure on them recently as there has been a tremendous amount of rain out West. Thinks this is been overblown. There may not be substantial drilling until the4th quarter but this has not changed the fundamentals. Expects oil prices to remain steady or go higher.

2011-07-14

HOLD

40.780

Jim Huang

A preeminent Bakken player in Saskatchewan. Valuation very well reflects the upside in their existing play. Not cheap. Should be up to maintain the dividend.

2011-07-13

BUY

40.990

Bruce Campbell

Has been a fast growing company that made a number of acquisitions. On a statistical basis it does not make any earnings. They are paying a nice dividend out of cash flow. Flooding will affect their Q2. It will be weakfish but once we get by that it will be fine. Don’t look at earnings – look at cash flow.

2011-07-12

DON'T BUY

42.600

He has been Short on this one for some time and it is now right about the cost where he has shorted it. Has a yield of 6.84%. Earnings are $0.56 this year. They're not covering their dividend. His model price is $27.70, a negative 35%. He thinks it's worth around $27-$28.

2011-07-08

BUY

44.200

Laura Lau

Have issued a lot of stock to raise money for acquisitions. Have been able to create one of the best assets in Western Canada. About 55% payout ratio and distributions should be safe. The upside for them is the water flood that stems their declines.

2011-07-05

BUY

44.100

Making enough money to pay the dividends? Energy companies don't pay their dividends out of earnings, they pay it out of cash flow and this company has a growing cash flow.

2011-06-29

WAIT

44.100

Prakash Hariharan

Extremely leveraged to crude oil prices. They said dividend but at the end of the day it is extremely aggressive because they are the biggest player in the Bakken. Would hold off until oil prices settle.

2011-06-29

DON'T BUY

45.290

Model price $25.32. Q1 was a loss. Yield is not valuation. People are paying a lot of money for yield. One of these days, when yield is not a factor…

2011-06-09

BUY

46.120

John Stephenson

Continually coming to the market to do issues. They are oil weighted, It is a great name and he recommends it.

2011-06-06

Comment

45.870

Terry Shaunessy

High yield of 5.9%. He is positive on commodities and energy and this stock will be a beneficiary of that. Primarily a yield, but you’ll also get a lift on it.

2011-06-01

BUY

45.660

Very active driller in the Bakken in Dakota and Saskatchewan. Really an exploration/development company.

2011-05-27

BUY

45.450

Owns it in income accounts. Likes it because it is more oily and their locations. Good growth and production profiles.

2011-05-20

PAST TOP PICK

44.790

David Burrows

(A Top Pick May 10/10. Up 12.84%.) Made a lot of money on this one over the last 2 years, but no longer owns.

2011-05-18

TOP PICK

43.130

Levered to sweet light oil. Cash flow up 45%. 6.6% dividend yield. Hedge production, which is very positive. 55% of this year's production is hedged at prices of $88 to $104 and 35% for net year. Greatly increased drilling in Q1 with a 100% success rate.

2011-05-12

TOP PICK

43.960

Laura Lau

Indicated they won't be cutting the distribution. Break up was very wet this year and people have been selling, so it's a good opportunity. Will meet their guidance.

2011-05-09

BUY

43.960

Robert Lauzon

Could see this hitting the $48-$50 range over the next year or so. Have a rolling hedge program so are selling forward oil on the $100 range. Doing water floods on their Bakken properties. Also, exploring in Southern Alberta in the Bakkens. Sees the stock at $48 and with the 6.4% yield you get a nice return.

2011-05-09

DON'T BUY

43.390

Earnings have been going up, especially this year. Their estimates have been going up. His model price is $30, a negative 31% differential. Also, they are paying out $2.76 and people want the yield, feels the stock is only at its current level because of the yield.

2011-05-06

Comment

41.960

Brooke Thackray

A 90% oil company and oil has been good up until now. A sound company. You have to take a look at what’s happening in the market place. He does hold a few stocks in a sector.

2011-05-05

Comment

41.890

Brendan Caldwell

Have a wonderful property in the Bakken. On the other hand, they have been raising equity on an ongoing basis in about the amount it takes to pay out its distribution. Seems it has to continually tap into the capital markets to pay for the distribution. As long as energy prices remain strong, the dividend should be safe.

2011-05-03

BUY

42.560

Energy sector had a big rally when crude prices surged to over $105. Crude has stayed up but the stocks have pulled back, which be because of profit taking or speculation that crude prices will have to pull back. This company will be generating a lot of cash flow. Likes their Saskatchewan and Alberta land inventory. Yield of 5%-6%. Good price level.

2011-05-02

BUY

42.960

Alice Tsang

Light oil producer in the Bakkens. Great management. They’ll continue to perform well. Oil may pull back but the stock should be able to support over the long term.

2011-04-29

DON'T BUY

43.100

Andrew McCreath

Now a really big company and to get there, they issued a lot of paper, which is partly the problem with the stock. Have also had some problems on the drilling side. Great company and has a nice yield. Would suggest you look at Parallel Energy Trust (PLT.UN-T) instead, which has a nice yield of 8.4%. Also look at names that Crescent Point is likely to purchase in the future.

2011-04-28

BUY

44.240

Rick Stuchberry

Correction is just a pull back in oil and nothing fundamentally wrong with this stock. They’re out there doing what they said they would do. Pays a great dividend. Costs are good.

2011-04-21

HOLD

44.450

John Stephenson

Likes it. Had a good run, been a market darling but has not been able to punch through the next level. They have hedged, so you wont get all the upside, but you wont get all the downside.

2011-04-20

BUY

43.660

All energy stocks are well off the top, in sympathy perhaps with oil coming back off its highs. Target is $51-$52. Its key is its long term strategy, which is to buy as much highly prospective land or companies with lands, maximize the number of joint locations and over a period of time, drill enough holes to sustain long term production growth at 5%.

2011-04-19

PAST TOP PICK

43.550

(A Top Pick March 19/10. Up 20.3%.) Still likes and if it backs off a little he while buy more.

2011-04-15

TOP PICK

44.170

The dominant producer in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan. An outstanding management team. 70,000 barrels a day of light sweet crude. When they get it to 100,000 barrels a day, one of the majors might pick them off. Very good at hedging so feels the 6% yield is sustainable.

2011-04-13

BUY

46.840

Very oily and he likes its prospects. Dividends on oil companies come from cash flow rather than earnings so there’s lots of room for the dividend to grow more. Energy prices are going to stay high.

2011-04-06

DON'T BUY

44.740

Brendan Caldwell

Naked short selling is a derivative strategy. They have to raise a lot of money each year to finance their CAP-X activities. He has been out of this one and looking at other stocks since this did not appear to be a sustainable business model. His math says it is not.

2011-03-14

HOLD

44.740

This group came off their highs 5-10%, which was initially due to the run-up in oil and fear it would come down very quickly. He is very bullish on oil but in a modified way. CPG is relatively expensive, but they got it right – get your hands on as much prospective land as possible because the price of oil is going up. Buying it for new accounts.

2011-03-14

BUY on WEAKNESS

46.610

One of the best oil companies in Canada. What is extraordinary is acknowledging that they want the big oil resource plays and how they can add primary, secondary and ternary production and they have an incredible resource that they can keep adding and expanding to products that they have already got. Would buy on a hiccup.

2011-03-08

BUY

47.350

Well-managed company. Oil focused. Most appealing thing is the 6.3% dividend. You get exposure to the commodity price as well as the down side protection that a good yield provides.

2011-03-03

DON'T BUY

47.350

Michael Sprung

A lot of properties that have potential for drilling far into the future. His concern is the payout of $2.76 per year. Have a huge take-up in their dividend reinvestment plan, which dilutes the stock. Without that they couldn’t afford the $2.76. Would prefer that they were more conservative with distributions. Expensive. (He could exit in the near future.)

2011-03-03

BUY

46.980

Acting well with the price of oil. Have some great properties in the Bakkens in Saskatchewan. Thinks the 6% dividend is safe and could grow over time.

2011-02-28

BUY

46.980

Brooke Thackray

Seasonality for energy is usually from January to May as well as from July until September. This year has performed well outside of the seasonality. Technically, chart shows resistance at around $40 which has now become support when it broke out late 2010. Stock looks really good.

2011-02-28

Comment

45.980

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), Suncor (SU-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T). Which would be the better hold in terms of better growth over the next year or two? Likes them all but CNQ would probably be the better growth story.

2011-02-25

DON'T BUY

43.670

He is Short on this one and if he could get it a little bit higher, he would Short some more. His model price is $29.24, a negative 33.5% differential. People are attracted to cash flows but he looks at earnings. Earnings for Dec/11 (?) is $0.90 and they are paying out $2.76. Yield is unsustainable and will be cut.

2011-02-17

BUY

43.650

Gavin Graham

Very successful and has demonstrated it’s ability to grow its production and earnings. Didn’t cut its payout when it converted to a corp indicating its conservative nature.

2011-02-07

HOLD

43.650

Rick Stuchberry

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Feels oil prices will stay in the $80 to $100 range. In this case he wants to be paid to sit and wait, so Crescent Point would be his choice. If you are very bullish on oils, then Buy Canadian Natural Resources.

2011-02-07

PAST TOP PICK

43.700

(A Top Pick March 8/10. Up 20.2%.) Still likes and thinks it still has upside. &0,000 barrels a day of production and feels they could reach 100,000. Also a takeover candidate. 6% yield.

2011-02-03

PAST TOP PICK

43.070

(A Top Pick Jan 18/10. Up 18.95%.) Expect they’ll continue to dilute shares on expectations of oil shortages long term and want to acquire as much prospective land as possible. Long-term story. Price target is $50. 6.4% should be safe.

2011-01-27

Comment

43.350

Good payout. As long as the company can manage what they’re spending versus what they’re earning, there’s no reason they can’t have a healthy payout.

2011-01-26

HOLD

43.510

We are at the higher end of where oil should trade. Because this company has done so well, it’s kind of an IT stock in the industry and tends to have a higher valuation. You have to believe they will keep hitting the ball out of the park and oil prices will continue to go up.

2011-01-24

PAST TOP PICK

43.360

(A Top Pick Jan 21/10. Up 18.94%.) In the right place in Saskatchewan and North Dakota for the Bakken. Good at drilling it and acquired more properties. Now branching into the Cardium in Alberta.

2011-01-21

TOP PICK

43.370

Good growth potential. Well managed with over 90% success rate in drilling. 17 years of drilling projects left. No exploration risks. Using unique technology. One knock is that they seem to issue a lot of stock but as they get bigger, cash flows grow and the need for cash declines. Yield of over 6%.

2011-01-20

DON'T BUY

43.240

John Zechner

Would like to see them go without issuing equity for a period of time. Has always had a high valuation but has issued so much stock in the last few years.

2011-01-19

Comment

42.770

John Stephenson

Crescent Point or Baytex (BTE-T)? Would prefer Baytex. This company has potential to go quite a bit higher with the water flood and developing Alberta properties but Baytex has done some exciting things by acquiring heavy oil assets near Seal in the oil sands.

2011-01-17

TOP PICK

42.800

Ben Cheng

Fulfilled its projections/promises over the last few years in terms of the Bakken properties in Saskatchewan and hoping to do the same with their Alberta Bakkens. Talented management.

2011-01-11

PAST TOP PICK

44.350

(A Top Pick Jan 25/10 Up 21.79%.) 6 billion barrels of oil + 2500 drilling locations in Bakkens in Saskatchewan. Started buying in Southern Alberta as well. Terrific management. Can be volatile. Raised a lot of capital and expect they’ll raise more. Trim at this point and wait for them to get back. Going much higher in the long run.

2010-12-31

BUY on WEAKNESS

44.350

Jim Huang

Known for having dominant position. Well managed large cap company, but he is not an owner because of the high value. Over the long term it will do well.

2010-12-30

DON'T BUY

45.150

David Baskin

Has a world-class resource but you are paying a lot of money to play that resource when you buy this company. Expensive and you can buy other oil stocks cheaper.

2010-12-22

TOP PICK

44.180

Can definitely maintain the payout. Darling of the street because they increased their land base and are improving assets.

2010-12-21

TOP PICK

43.960

Big player in the Bakken. Also in North Dakota and in the Cardium in Alberta. Into water flood and getting better production. Excellent yield of 6.4%.

2010-12-17

HOLD

43.200

Rick Stuchberry

Great performer this year. At these prices it is pretty fully priced. Might trip some and replace in the next pull back.

2010-12-16

BUY

43.500