STOCKCHASE

(Market Call Minute) High levels of debt

2010-08-31

DON'T BUY

1.230

Eric Nuttall

Their debt is very, very high. It will be difficult for them to grow because of cash flow paying the interest.

2010-08-24

BUY

1.440

Andrew Cook

Likes it. Reasonable entry point here. Have ability to grow their production in the oil sands.

2010-07-27

BUY

1.380

A good stock but not a screaming buy. It is reasonably fairly valued. They have to bring on some more production at Great Divide. One potential catalyst is that it is a logical acquisition down the road by a large foreign player.

2010-07-23

BUY

1.320

Bill Carrigan

Has had an ABC correction and the C did not make a new low. Oil/gas has already been through a corrective period so you should be okay with this one.

2010-07-16

BUY

1.380

Jim Huang

One of the smaller sized companies that have a producing oil sands project. The brought it on stream on time and within budget. Are continuing to construct the second phase of the project. Very few companies of their size have this visible upside in the next few years. The other side is that they have quite a bit of debt that was incurred to build these projects. This will not be a problem when they bring in the second project.

2010-06-22

DON'T BUY

1.420

Dean Orrico

Basically heavy oil. Production is looking to be ramping up but would prefer other names. Have had challenges.

2010-06-17

WEAK BUY

1.490

Probably about the only way to play the oil sands with a junior. About 10,000 production and going up another 10,000 very shortly. Potential of a takeout. Fairly valued right now.

2010-05-28

Comment

1.460

One of the few successful emerging oil sands producers. Currently producing about 10,000 BOE's from their 1st phase. Just gone to steaming the 2nd phase (Algar), which is supposed to be another 10,000 BOE's. Just filed an environmental impact statement to get approval for 44,000. Have been able to build on time and on budget but always have a higher leverage than what the market is comfortable with. He uses it as a trading stock.

2010-05-18

BUY

1.580

Mason Granger

Just completed construction of their 2nd phase of growth, their 10,000 barrels a day of their SAGD plant and are just starting it up now. Demonstrated a good track record of been able to do this on time and on budget.

2010-05-07

BUY

1.710

Jim Huang

One of the very few junior oil sands companies to have built their project on time and on budget. They use SAGD, which is lower-cost and easier to start up. Just finished the 2nd phase and it will take them a year to ramp up. Has a lot of growth potential.

2010-04-19

BUY

1.700

Well diversified. Have a fairly new refinery in the US that is quite profitable.

2010-04-14

PAST TOP PICK

1.700

(A Top Pick March 13/09. Up 138%.) Convertible bond 4.75% due to thousand and 12.

2010-04-14

DON'T BUY

1.680

David Taylor, MBA, CFA

Struggled a lot because they did a couple of dilutive deals in a horrible market when they needed cash. Prefers Southern Pacific Resources (STP-X), which has a property next door and trades at half the valuation.

2010-04-13

TOP PICK

1.710

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Oil sands producer. In less than 2 weeks, their new Algar (?) project will be coming on and a month later they commission and then start steaming and in about 3 months get production so that next year production will have pretty well doubled. Trading at about 6X NAV.

2010-04-05

HOLD

1.290

Hasn't been one of the stronger sectors on a weekly or monthly basis, but has had a nice uptrend since July. Can't see any reason for concern on a short-term basis. Unless that broke through the line significantly, wouldn't be too worried.

2010-03-22

SPECULATIVE BUY

1.290

Attractive. It could continue to build out its oil sands presence and it is a potential acquisition target.

2010-03-05

BUY

1.290

Had a beautiful base and then the moving average came down and it started to turn.

2010-03-02

BUY

1.200

Jim Huang

One of the few Junior companies that are producing. Brought their Great Divide project phase 1 into production on time and under budget. Will be building phase 2 and doubling production. With good oil prices they should be up to turn around their debt.

2010-01-29

HOLD

1.500

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Have oil sands going for them. With the current higher oil prices they will be making a lot more money. On track with their expansion, which should be up and running on time. If you are bullish on crude this is a Hold. Debt is a little higher than what she likes.

2010-01-13

BUY

1.450

Mason Granger

Purchased in the past as flow through share. Likes it. A bit of a smaller company. He has convertible debentures of this company. Has decent balance sheet.

2010-01-05

BUY

1.300

Bruce Campbell

(Market Call Minute.) Small-cap, juniorish oil sands play. Pretty cheap. As they bring it into production he expects the stock to be $1.50-$1.60 later on.

2009-12-30

BUY

1.160

Going through a very rapid development. Expects heavy oil differentials to remain relatively small so likes the netback it is receiving. Good growth pattern.

2009-12-07

Comment

0.970

You have to be willing to stomach some risks. Debt is very high but is mostly termed out in 1st lien notes, 2nd lien notes and convertible debentures and first amount is not due until 2012. Very volatile.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

0.980

Peter Hodson

Thinks there will be more M & A activity in the oil sands space. Prefers UTS (UTS-T) and its management team, which is a better play.

2009-11-16

SPECULATIVE BUY

0.990

Planning on doubling production in 2010. Attractive company and has done a lot of things right in order to get its financial house in order. In 2011 or so you will see some real impact on some of the stuff they are doing with more of their oil sands production coming on.

2009-11-09

Comment

0.980

Heavy oil. Have done a reasonably good job of getting production. Have lots of plays in front of them where reserves and production levels are known. There are others he likes better.

2009-11-06

WEAK BUY

1.000

Has a lot of financial torque because of high debt. Produce heavy oil, which is at a discount to West Texas. You have to be comfortable with the leverage.

2009-10-13

WATCH

1.100

Very leveraged to oil so you have to be a long-term bull on oil. Did a very good job on execution but they still have two build the next Algar so she will be watching this very closely. Debt is also an issue.

2009-09-30

SPECULATIVE BUY

1.030

Speculative buy because it is a smaller cap name and smaller producer. Does have conventional production as well as oil sands in which 1st phase has been completed. Working on a 2nd phase with cash to see it through. Could benefit from a land grab in the oil sands as things start to recover globally.

2009-09-28

HOLD

1.000

Very bullish on this stock. December April it had a major trading range that was a support. Had another major support over the summer. 200-day moving average is now doing very well. There may be a little resistance around $1.25-$1.50. Because of the long base, the stock will probably have a big upside move. Stoploss should be below $.75.

2009-09-18

HOLD

0.950

Bruce Campbell

(Market Call Minute) If you think oil is going up it has a nice outlook otherwise it’s flat.

2009-09-15

HOLD

0.920

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Heavy oil producer and heavy oil margins have been relatively small. Doesn't think it will change too much unless there is a big increase in oil prices.

2009-08-11

WATCH

0.930

A lot of the bigger caps have passed the moving averages but this one is below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. If you own, use a Stop of about $.75 and you could add to your position if it breaks out with volume depending on your risk tolerance.

2009-08-04

BUY

0.920

Just recently raise some money so are good to go. Speculative buy.

2009-07-24

WATCH

0.920

Alexander Lane, B Comm, C

Technically have done a very good job on their 1st project of Pod 1. Have been trying to raise money for their next job, Algar. As a result have stretched their balance sheet. One of the most leveraged plays to oil. Could potentially be 20,000 barrels a day producer.

2009-06-30

Comment

0.930

(Market Call Minute.) Was able to raise money at a 15% discount a few weeks ago but there are others more interesting to him than this.

2009-06-29

Comment

0.980

Bruce Campbell

One of the smaller companies that has an oil sands project and it is producing. With oil sands you get a levered play on the price of oil. In other words, if oil is going to $120 it will do really well but if it is going back to $50 this company would struggle. Expects oil to go back to $60 and that would give you a better entry point.

2009-06-25

BUY

0.960

Raised around $174 million and that helps bridge the gap. Bringing on a 2nd phase of production of their oil sands project at 10,000 barrels a day. Think they will survive but is still a difficult slog for them because cash is going to be tight. Need significantly higher sustained oil prices to make a go of it. Speculative buy.

2009-06-24

Comment

0.930

Andrew Cook

Big issue here is the amount of financing they have had to do over the last month. Did both in equity and debt issue. From a longer-term perspective, this is quite positive, as it appears they are fully financed now.

2009-06-17

BUY

1.080

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

High-cost operator and will have a lot of leverage when gas prices start lifting off.

2009-06-11

SELL

1.080

Don Vialoux

(Market Call Minute.) Seasonality says Sell. We have just completed the period of seasonal strength. You can Buy when it gets back to the March low.

2009-06-02

TOP PICK

1.110

4.75% bond maturing June/30/12. Great balance sheet. They have a refinery, and he loves refineries. Looking for 110% appreciation on the capital.

2009-05-22

BUY on WEAKNESS

1.240

(Market Call Minute.) Heavy oil producer. Just raised a significant amount of money that it will use to develop.

2009-05-20

Comment

1.480

Keith Richards

Chart shows a rounded bottom. Expect to see some noise come in at around $1.70 to $1.80. Look for some resistance at $1.70. Momentum indicator shows it as being overbought so there could be a small pullback.

2009-05-11

Comment

0.940

First module of their production in oil sands belt area is now in operation. Until there are much higher commodity prices, $40/$50 oil prices does not justify expansion of the modules. Have to get back to the $70/$80 range. If you are willing to make the bet on the higher prices, it has a lot of upside potential to it.

2009-04-06

Comment

0.750

Oil sands developer using steam assisted gravity. Has been hit hard. Have a refinery in the US. But natural gas as a hedge for gas prices. Surprised that it hasn't responded more to the recovery in oil prices.

2009-03-26

TOP PICK

0.740

Convertible Bond 4.75% due in 2012. You are getting $.40 on the dollar while adding to your oil content. Have $180 million in cash, which is enough to pay their debt.

2009-03-13

Comment

0.740

Trading at $.72 and cash value is about $.93. He prefers their convertible bond, which gives him a good way to sit on cash. It is trading at $.40 on the $1. (See Top Picks.) US refinery produces jet fuel and the margins on this are good because of a lack of producers.

2009-03-13

DON'T BUY

0.800

Robert McWhirter

Seasonally, oil should perform fairly well for the near-term. Heavy oil faces challenges. His model ranks it in the bottom 5% of his database. Expect they will cut back on their CapX.

2009-01-26

SELL

0.850

Cutting back at the Great Divide project from 9000 barrels to 5000. Low commodity prices make it difficult for some of these oil sands projects to work. Better names available.

2009-01-02

BUY

0.660

Because of low oil prices and high differentials they are probably not making money on a net basis after operating costs, so they cut back production on their 1st phase and delayed the 2nd phase. Still like this one. Great growth profile.

2008-12-18

HOLD

1.050

(Market Call Minute.) Very good name. Oil sands player but doing things in bite-size chunks and where the commodity is, it is hard to see it going higher

2008-12-03

Comment

1.260

Junior companies are going to have a problem picking up cash in this environment. Would be cautious. With patience and not a large percentage of your portfolio or if you want to average down, it is okay.

2008-11-28

HOLD

1.690

(Market Call Minute.) Doing a reasonable job but would like to see a little more financial strength.

2008-10-30

BUY

1.950

Probably a victim of environmental issues or concerns about costs of oil sands projects. They are developing steam-assisted gravity projects at 10,000 barrels a day. Will incrementally add in 10,000 phases so doesn't have cost overrun risks to the same degree. Projects are quite manageable. Fully financed for phase 2. Low risk way to play oil sands production. Extraordinarily cheap. Good long-term hold.

2008-10-21

BUY

3.460

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Recently bought this for the first time in her career. Oil sands focused but also have some conventional production as well as natural gas production. Have been on schedule and within budget.

2008-09-12

BUY

3.970

Refinery in Montana, oil sands producer and have 14 out of 15 wells on production. Very experienced management team. Not a core position, but something you could buy and will see good value over time.

2008-08-22

TOP PICK

3.670

(His 3 picks include one each from industrials, gold and oil.) Has made a base between mid-2006 and mid-2008. Has a very solid upside target of about $6.

2008-08-15

Comment

4.040

An emerging oils sands play. Getting some production from its Great Divide project. Has a refining piece in Montana. It is so prospective in terms of its development and so small. History of oil sands has been cost overruns and operation difficulties. Seasoned management team but not as focused as they could be.

2008-08-06

BUY

4.050

Heavy oil producer, mainly in the Seal (?) area of Alberta. Growing its production very quickly, which is why its share price is so high. Have a refinery in Montana which is more of a liability at the moment.

2008-07-18

PARTIAL BUY

3.850

Good name. Did a measured approach to their oil sands development. Have a refining piece in Montana as well as a stake in Petrolifera Petroleum (PDP-T). Wouldn't be his top pick. Until they get further down the road, it's a little early to throw a ton of money at it. Oil sands projects tend to be problem plagued and expensive.

2008-07-16

TOP PICK

4.480

Had a nice ride in 2005 and the stock needed a pause. The pause lasted 2.5 years and now the stock has broken out again. Buy half your position now and if it pulls back round out the balance.

2008-06-19

BUY

4.480

Jennifer Stevenson

A real success story with the development of their Pod 1. Management did a fantastic job bringing that oil sands development into production. Now talking about expanding it up to 12,500 BOE's a day. Looking to revising their reserves and that may give the stock a boost.

2008-06-19

WAIT

4.810

Ken McCord

Loves the results that oil companies are showing right now and is long-term bullish on the price of crude. They've had an incredible run and it's time for them to take a little breather. Wouldn't be surprised to see the spot price fall below $130 for a while before it goes up again.

2008-05-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

4.700

Heavy oil. Refining side is a relatively small part of their business. Most of its drive is from the oil sands side on their Seal area. Investors are expecting very quick production growth giving good cash flow.

2008-05-16

BUY

4.560

Jonathan Baird

Heavy oil out west. Just moving into production with their first project. Well run. Heavy oil projects are coming in on time and on budget. Reasonably priced at a bit of a discount to its NAV. If oil prices continue high, NAV’s for heavy oil producers will move up fairly dramatically in the next few years.

2008-05-14

BUY

3.900

David Cockfield

Had a very good run. Managed to get into the tar sands and have good prospects there. Probably in a buying range. Good management.

2008-04-24

HOLD

3.370

Bringing up a new heavy oil project and bring in it on in a modular system. Costs have been very high with labour and materials steel. They are now getting to the point of getting the modular system to work. As they ramp up production and if oil prices stay strong, it should go back through the old time highs.

2008-04-04

DON'T BUY

3.230

Michael Smedley

Ramped up production on pod 1 to 10,000 barrels and have made application for the 2nd pod to be built. The only small public company that he can see in the oil sands patch that is up and running. However, oil sands is a very high capital cost business and is generally thought to need very big size.

2008-04-01

DON'T BUY

2.990

Issues with increased costs, things that are taking time. Also environment issues add increased costs to meet the obligations.

2008-03-20

Comment

3.220

Suffering like many juniors that are failing to be recognized. Oil/gas equity market has been tough and it is going to affect the seniors first and will gradually work its way down to some of the juniors. This one is heavy oil and their netbacks are going to be lower than some of the other producers. Increasing its production fairly dramatically. Market is just failing to give value to it.

2008-03-07

Comment

2.990

Developed an oil sands play, the Great Divide. Also some gas production and a refinery in the US making it a mini integrated company with a hedge on gas prices. Great Divide is still in early stages. Company falls into the market that is not so enamoured with companies with limited potentials as a takeout candidate. Very attractive asset and a strong technical team but the market is not sure how to treat it.

2008-02-25

BUY

3.060

Mark Lackey

You are in the oil sands with a junior, which is interesting. There is also ownership in a well run company in Argentina, which has had a lot of success. At these levels, it is probably a pretty decent entry point.

2008-02-13

BUY

3.100

An oil sands play and it is starting to get some production going. Wouldn't wade in as it still has some issues but you could participate in a small way.

2008-02-08

WATCH

3.710

Bill Carrigan

Likes the consolidation period that this has been in. You can start to do a move once it breaks out about $4. Prefers gassy plays over oil.

2008-01-09

BUY

3.650

Worth looking at. Has some conventional production but it is an oil sands play. Has been beaten up lately, so valuation is attractive.

2008-01-08

DON'T BUY

3.690

Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT

Chart shows a very explosive bull market in 05. This is when you would like to own the stock. It cool down in 06 and has done nothing since then.

2008-01-04

HOLD

3.830

Starting to ramp up the production from their heavy oil SAG-D project. Also have natural gas reserves as well as a refinery in the US. As they ramp up production and go to 2nd and 3rd phases over the next few years, the stock could go up materially.

2008-01-02

HOLD

3.700

Over time, costs have been running out of control. As they can prove they can do these cookie cutters number of projects, the stock goes higher.

2007-11-15

HOLD

4.020

Long term he likes the story.

2007-10-22

WATCH

4.200

On the verge of a huge major breakout. You will want to own it when it goes past $4.50.

2007-09-27

VAGUE

4.000

Derek Webb, CFA

no comments.

2007-09-19

BUY

3.740

Alex Ruus

Just completed construction of an oil sands processing plant. Good exposure (35%) to Petrolifera (PDP-T), a very successful South American explorer. Good price.

2007-09-04

BUY

3.500

Peter Hodson

Their assets are good enough, and they've proven that they can execute. They can be a very profitable company over time.

2007-08-17

Comment

4.020

Have been hurt by environmental issues because of their position in the oil sands. Longer term, it offers some interesting prospects. Fairly junior, so be careful.

2007-08-10

BUY

3.730

It's come down a little bit. But he believes the worst is over. Now is a good entry point.

2007-06-06

Comment

3.880

Has been pretty volatile. With environmental concerns, they could face a big bill. The projects are costing a lot more. If you own, be mindful of your exit point.

2007-05-11

DON'T BUY

4.010

Mainly heavy oil production and has grown production very quickly. Volatile. Disappointed the market last quarter. Other places will give a better risk/reward.

2007-05-09

WATCH

3.820

Principally known for its stake in the Great Divide oil sands project. A speculative buy. A “show me the production” stock.

2007-04-30

Comment

3.830

Just announced their costs are going to be higher than expected. He expects higher commodity prices, which are needed to make the projects viable.

2007-04-24

BUY on WEAKNESS

4.070

This is a company you want to own in here. Production is starting to come on stream now.

2007-04-19

BUY

3.850

Heavy oil producer. Expect production will top out over 10,000 barrels a day in the next year. Expects moderate growth.

2007-04-04

WEAK BUY

3.900

On paper it looks wonderful, and seems to be hitting the benchmarks. An oil sands player that doesn't have a production yet. Speculative.

2007-03-27

WATCH

3.620

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

A typical oil stock in that its top was last spring and looks like it is now in an accumulation pattern. If you see the stock go above $4.50 that would be a buying opportunity.

2007-03-21

Comment

3.940

Likes the oil/gas space. There were lows in July, October and January. Not a great technical structure, but it does have support. If it goes below the lows of $3, Sell.

2007-02-21

BUY

3.980

Peter Hodson

Impressed by what the management team has accomplished. Have a great asset in shares of Petrolifera (PDP-T) as well as a great oil sand asset. Dropped because of oil prices and decrease in Petrolifera stock price. Recovering nicely.

2007-02-19

BUY

3.860

Heavy oil production in Alberta, which is increasing pretty dramatically. Still owns 35% of Petrolifera (PDP-T), an Argentinean development company. Relatively low development costs. Good growth potential in front of it.

2007-02-16

DON'T BUY

3.300

John O'Connell, CFA

Predominantly in the Fort McMurray area. Will struggle in this environment. Given that some of the big majors have come off so sharply, they look more compelling.

2007-01-25

BUY

3.390