STOCKCHASE

Debt to cash flow was known to be very high and finally CEO was asked to leave. The only concern he has now is that the stock has had a good run. Company is up for sale. If a bid came in below market value there would be pressure for the board to accept. Upside is limited. Take profits if you have them.

2012-01-24

HOLD

0.760

Peter Imhof

Has being very volatile over the last couple of months. Has a lot of debt. Stock came off but when management implied that it might get taken out it went up but management has a chequered past. Thinks the company will get taken out but it is a matter of valuation but will probably be a higher price than at present.

2011-12-29

PARTIAL SELL

0.760

Received an unsolicited offer recently, which they were not interested in. There has been a little resurgence of late because of the speculative thought. He thinks it highlights an exit strategy for this company. Relatively high amount of debt and disappointing production so far. If you own, look to lighten up over time.

2011-12-23

WAIT

0.780

Bill Harris, CFA

At $100 oil, it will start to look quite good for them. The have a huge debt to deal with. Stock is worth multiples of where it is now if oil goes up and would be ripe for a take over.

2011-12-13

Comment

0.780

Michael Smedley

A small operator which has done quite well in the past as a stock. At the moment, oil sands are somewhat out of favour.

2011-12-13

DON'T BUY

0.920

John O'Connell, CFA

Very heavily in debt and their financing costs are very high. It is the subject of a potential acquisition. Has perennially not met its production targets on the boilerplate design of its facilities.

2011-12-08

BUY

0.450

Has been a strong shift in strategy. Were taking cash flow from heavy oil and putting it into light oil with mixed success. He strongly disagreed with this because debt level was extremely high. Now stopped because they have $100 million convertible due June/12. Have $120 million now so they can easily pay this. Still thinks this name looks very good.

2011-11-30

SELL

0.395

Hank Cunningham

4.75% bonds maturing June 2012. Do I sell after the year-end payout, lock in my return and forgo the final payout? He would recommend that. Small company and its main assets are in the oil sands.

2011-11-28

DON'T BUY

0.470

Benj Gallander

Has being on his stock watch list for a long time but he finds it incredibly confusing. They are undergoing such a transformation that he finds it really confusing. He wants the clouds to clear.

2011-11-03

DON'T BUY

0.440

Bill Harris, CFA

Too much debt and they really get hit when oil comes off. He wouldn’t touch it. It is not a busted company. The asset is real but there is too much debt. Someone could come after it but they just want the asset. They will pay cash.

2011-10-19

DON'T BUY

0.390

Mason Granger

Very high risk. Very technically adept but have mismanaged the capital structure. Needs $85 oil to cover the interest costs on the debt and finance their capital expenditures.

2011-10-13

BUY

0.390

High risk because their debt levels are extremely high. Have changed their strategy. People are concerned about their liquidity and solvency but they have $75 million in cash and liquidity is very good. Expect they will continue to pay down debt.

2011-10-13

WAIT

0.345

Don Vialoux

Oil. This one follows a very distinct seasonality pattern. Usually oil sands stocks are interesting from around the end of November through to May. However, their current trend of this stock is still heading lower. This stock has very strong seasonality.

2011-10-07

DON'T BUY

0.560

Bill Harris, CFA

Producing in the oil sands but the problem is they took on an awful lot of debt. Anytime the oil price goes up, they can repay their loans, but if the sentiment is that oil price is going to come off, it gets crushed.

2011-09-19

BUY

0.800

Victim of a falling oil price. Have more leverage of any oil company in Canada. Cost structure is extraordinarily high. Ramp up at one of their oil sands operations has been disappointing. Recently bought 10 million shares because there is a tremendous difference in where the stock is and its NAV. High risk investment.

2011-08-16

HOLD

1.030

Probably will trend up. He has a hold on this. Spotty record and high levels of debt. Be cautious on names that have a high level of debt given problems with US and European debt.

2011-07-18

PAST TOP PICK

1.090

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Down 38.01%.) Had expected oil prices to rally and they did but this company didn’t keep up so she sold and broke even.

2011-07-05

BUY

1.160

Average refineries in North America are about 92 years old and were built for a 40-year life span. Their refinery produces jet and higher grade fuels so margins should do quite well. Also have their debt in US dollars. Well diversified. Has a $2 target on this one.

2011-06-14

WAIT

1.220

Benj Gallander

They are doing lots of deals with their debt. Would sit back and watch this one for a while before getting into it.

2011-05-31

PAST TOP PICK

1.220

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Down 18.07%.) Execution wasn't as good as she had hoped.

2011-05-09

Comment

1.450

If you are a Bull on oil, there is not a better stock to own in Canada. It is the most leveraged to oil and heavy oil. Current enterprise value is $1.5 billion and proven plus probable NAV is $3 billion, so it implies more than a double in the current share price. Trades at a discount because of their $850 million debt. Selling off non-core assets and are hoping for $250 million. Also have 3 oil wells in light oil. Questions their ability to finance future growth. $1.75-$1.80 is a pretty conservative outlook for the stock price.

2011-04-13

DON'T BUY

1.560

Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI

2011-04-08

Comment

1.450

Bill Carrigan

In the late stages of a bull you should try to stay away from small caps. You’ll do a lot better with the bigger names. This one had a period of bullish congestion last year and is trying to break out. You should be OK.

2011-04-01

BUY on WEAKNESS

1.350

Very levered to oil prices, both ways. Are selling assets to clean up balance sheet. As long as oil stays above $85, they are undervalued. A junior oil sands play. A little riskier than average.

2011-03-10

HOLD

1.540

A good name with oil sands properties. If you are looking for torque to rising oil prices, go with COS. Biggest push back is disappointing production and relatively high debt levels.

2011-03-04

BUY

1.510

Good oil sands project. A lot of leverage both financially and operationally to oil prices so has done well. Big challenge has always been to bring oil sands into production and bring in cash flow to reduce financial leverage. Not without risk.

2011-02-24

BUY

1.400

Likes it because they have a refinery and refinery capacity is one of the issues in the energy complex. Average age of refineries is around 89 years and new ones are not being built in North America. Have some pretty good assets. Working with some fracing to increase production.

2011-02-18

HOLD

1.380

Small cap oil sands play so is volatile and very reactive to oil prices. Balance sheet needs financing. Did a flow-through in Dec, which he participated in. Also did a couple of asset sales. Expects the stock will go to $2 if oil prices go to $90-$95 and stay there.

2011-02-16

BUY

1.300

Just bought some. More optimistic on crude pricing and this one has the most leverage of any Canadian oil company to crude. Debt to cash flow is about 10X but expect the company will clear some assets and bring it down to about 8X.

2011-02-09

Comment

1.380

Been a frustration. Relatively high level of debt and some disappointments at Pod 1, its first foray into oil sands development. Would Sell if you can get out at a small profit.

2011-01-17

BUY

1.210

Quite a bit of sensitivity to price of oil and they are a heavy oil producer. At $90 oil, they have $1.75 a share value. Their leverage ratios are coming down as production is ramping up. Decent upside if you believe in oil upside.

2010-12-14

SELL

1.140

Higher than average debt level. Doesn’t have huge production. Not bad but can’t see any catalyst and would be inclined to Sell.

2010-11-26

Comment

1.210

Not a bad bet, but if you are looking for a junior oil sands company, consider Southern Pacific (STP-T) which has the same valuation but no debt.

2010-10-27

DON'T BUY

1.280

Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI

Stop at a $1.15. Resistance at $1.40 Volume is drying up.

2010-10-08

SELL

1.190

Don Short

Not fond of this one. Focuses on companies operating in the top quartile of operating metrics and performance in oil sands. A fair amount of debt. Doesn't see the refinery in Montana as being strategic. He would prefer BlackPearl (PXX-T) or Magma (MXY-T).

2010-09-22

HOLD

1.200

(Market Call Minute) High levels of debt

2010-08-31

DON'T BUY

1.230

Their debt is very, very high. It will be difficult for them to grow because of cash flow paying the interest.

2010-08-24

BUY

1.440

Andrew Cook

Likes it. Reasonable entry point here. Have ability to grow their production in the oil sands.

2010-07-27

BUY

1.380

A good stock but not a screaming buy. It is reasonably fairly valued. They have to bring on some more production at Great Divide. One potential catalyst is that it is a logical acquisition down the road by a large foreign player.

2010-07-23

BUY

1.320

Bill Carrigan

Has had an ABC correction and the C did not make a new low. Oil/gas has already been through a corrective period so you should be okay with this one.

2010-07-16

BUY

1.380

One of the smaller sized companies that have a producing oil sands project. The brought it on stream on time and within budget. Are continuing to construct the second phase of the project. Very few companies of their size have this visible upside in the next few years. The other side is that they have quite a bit of debt that was incurred to build these projects. This will not be a problem when they bring in the second project.

2010-06-22

DON'T BUY

1.420

Dean Orrico

Basically heavy oil. Production is looking to be ramping up but would prefer other names. Have had challenges.

2010-06-17

WEAK BUY

1.490

Probably about the only way to play the oil sands with a junior. About 10,000 production and going up another 10,000 very shortly. Potential of a takeout. Fairly valued right now.

2010-05-28

Comment

1.460

One of the few successful emerging oil sands producers. Currently producing about 10,000 BOE's from their 1st phase. Just gone to steaming the 2nd phase (Algar), which is supposed to be another 10,000 BOE's. Just filed an environmental impact statement to get approval for 44,000. Have been able to build on time and on budget but always have a higher leverage than what the market is comfortable with. He uses it as a trading stock.

2010-05-18

BUY

1.580

Mason Granger

Just completed construction of their 2nd phase of growth, their 10,000 barrels a day of their SAGD plant and are just starting it up now. Demonstrated a good track record of been able to do this on time and on budget.

2010-05-07

BUY

1.710

One of the very few junior oil sands companies to have built their project on time and on budget. They use SAGD, which is lower-cost and easier to start up. Just finished the 2nd phase and it will take them a year to ramp up. Has a lot of growth potential.

2010-04-19

BUY

1.700

Well diversified. Have a fairly new refinery in the US that is quite profitable.

2010-04-14

PAST TOP PICK

1.700

(A Top Pick March 13/09. Up 138%.) Convertible bond 4.75% due to thousand and 12.

2010-04-14

DON'T BUY

1.680

David Taylor, MBA, CFA

Struggled a lot because they did a couple of dilutive deals in a horrible market when they needed cash. Prefers Southern Pacific Resources (STP-X), which has a property next door and trades at half the valuation.

2010-04-13

TOP PICK

1.710

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Oil sands producer. In less than 2 weeks, their new Algar (?) project will be coming on and a month later they commission and then start steaming and in about 3 months get production so that next year production will have pretty well doubled. Trading at about 6X NAV.

2010-04-05

HOLD

1.290

Hasn't been one of the stronger sectors on a weekly or monthly basis, but has had a nice uptrend since July. Can't see any reason for concern on a short-term basis. Unless that broke through the line significantly, wouldn't be too worried.

2010-03-22

SPECULATIVE BUY

1.290

Attractive. It could continue to build out its oil sands presence and it is a potential acquisition target.

2010-03-05

BUY

1.290

Had a beautiful base and then the moving average came down and it started to turn.

2010-03-02

BUY

1.200

One of the few Junior companies that are producing. Brought their Great Divide project phase 1 into production on time and under budget. Will be building phase 2 and doubling production. With good oil prices they should be up to turn around their debt.

2010-01-29

HOLD

1.500

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Have oil sands going for them. With the current higher oil prices they will be making a lot more money. On track with their expansion, which should be up and running on time. If you are bullish on crude this is a Hold. Debt is a little higher than what she likes.

2010-01-13

BUY

1.450

Mason Granger

Purchased in the past as flow through share. Likes it. A bit of a smaller company. He has convertible debentures of this company. Has decent balance sheet.

2010-01-05

BUY

1.300

(Market Call Minute.) Small-cap, juniorish oil sands play. Pretty cheap. As they bring it into production he expects the stock to be $1.50-$1.60 later on.

2009-12-30

BUY

1.160

Going through a very rapid development. Expects heavy oil differentials to remain relatively small so likes the netback it is receiving. Good growth pattern.

2009-12-07

Comment

0.970

You have to be willing to stomach some risks. Debt is very high but is mostly termed out in 1st lien notes, 2nd lien notes and convertible debentures and first amount is not due until 2012. Very volatile.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

0.980

Peter Hodson

Thinks there will be more M & A activity in the oil sands space. Prefers UTS (UTS-T) and its management team, which is a better play.

2009-11-16

SPECULATIVE BUY

0.990

Planning on doubling production in 2010. Attractive company and has done a lot of things right in order to get its financial house in order. In 2011 or so you will see some real impact on some of the stuff they are doing with more of their oil sands production coming on.

2009-11-09

Comment

0.980

Heavy oil. Have done a reasonably good job of getting production. Have lots of plays in front of them where reserves and production levels are known. There are others he likes better.

2009-11-06

WEAK BUY

1.000

Has a lot of financial torque because of high debt. Produce heavy oil, which is at a discount to West Texas. You have to be comfortable with the leverage.

2009-10-13

WATCH

1.100

Very leveraged to oil so you have to be a long-term bull on oil. Did a very good job on execution but they still have two build the next Algar so she will be watching this very closely. Debt is also an issue.

2009-09-30

SPECULATIVE BUY

1.030

Speculative buy because it is a smaller cap name and smaller producer. Does have conventional production as well as oil sands in which 1st phase has been completed. Working on a 2nd phase with cash to see it through. Could benefit from a land grab in the oil sands as things start to recover globally.

2009-09-28

HOLD

1.000

Very bullish on this stock. December April it had a major trading range that was a support. Had another major support over the summer. 200-day moving average is now doing very well. There may be a little resistance around $1.25-$1.50. Because of the long base, the stock will probably have a big upside move. Stoploss should be below $.75.

2009-09-18

HOLD

0.950

(Market Call Minute) If you think oil is going up it has a nice outlook otherwise it’s flat.

2009-09-15

HOLD

0.920

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Heavy oil producer and heavy oil margins have been relatively small. Doesn't think it will change too much unless there is a big increase in oil prices.

2009-08-11

WATCH

0.930

A lot of the bigger caps have passed the moving averages but this one is below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. If you own, use a Stop of about $.75 and you could add to your position if it breaks out with volume depending on your risk tolerance.

2009-08-04

BUY

0.920

Just recently raise some money so are good to go. Speculative buy.

2009-07-24

WATCH

0.920

Alexander Lane, B Comm, C

Technically have done a very good job on their 1st project of Pod 1. Have been trying to raise money for their next job, Algar. As a result have stretched their balance sheet. One of the most leveraged plays to oil. Could potentially be 20,000 barrels a day producer.

2009-06-30

Comment

0.930

(Market Call Minute.) Was able to raise money at a 15% discount a few weeks ago but there are others more interesting to him than this.

2009-06-29

Comment

0.980

One of the smaller companies that has an oil sands project and it is producing. With oil sands you get a levered play on the price of oil. In other words, if oil is going to $120 it will do really well but if it is going back to $50 this company would struggle. Expects oil to go back to $60 and that would give you a better entry point.

2009-06-25

BUY

0.960

Raised around $174 million and that helps bridge the gap. Bringing on a 2nd phase of production of their oil sands project at 10,000 barrels a day. Think they will survive but is still a difficult slog for them because cash is going to be tight. Need significantly higher sustained oil prices to make a go of it. Speculative buy.

2009-06-24

Comment

0.930

Andrew Cook

Big issue here is the amount of financing they have had to do over the last month. Did both in equity and debt issue. From a longer-term perspective, this is quite positive, as it appears they are fully financed now.

2009-06-17

BUY

1.080

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

High-cost operator and will have a lot of leverage when gas prices start lifting off.

2009-06-11

SELL

1.080

Don Vialoux

(Market Call Minute.) Seasonality says Sell. We have just completed the period of seasonal strength. You can Buy when it gets back to the March low.

2009-06-02

TOP PICK

1.110

4.75% bond maturing June/30/12. Great balance sheet. They have a refinery, and he loves refineries. Looking for 110% appreciation on the capital.

2009-05-22

BUY on WEAKNESS

1.240

(Market Call Minute.) Heavy oil producer. Just raised a significant amount of money that it will use to develop.

2009-05-20

Comment

1.480

Keith Richards

Chart shows a rounded bottom. Expect to see some noise come in at around $1.70 to $1.80. Look for some resistance at $1.70. Momentum indicator shows it as being overbought so there could be a small pullback.

2009-05-11

Comment

0.940

Joseph Schachter

First module of their production in oil sands belt area is now in operation. Until there are much higher commodity prices, $40/$50 oil prices does not justify expansion of the modules. Have to get back to the $70/$80 range. If you are willing to make the bet on the higher prices, it has a lot of upside potential to it.

2009-04-06

Comment

0.750

Oil sands developer using steam assisted gravity. Has been hit hard. Have a refinery in the US. But natural gas as a hedge for gas prices. Surprised that it hasn't responded more to the recovery in oil prices.

2009-03-26

TOP PICK

0.740

Convertible Bond 4.75% due in 2012. You are getting $.40 on the dollar while adding to your oil content. Have $180 million in cash, which is enough to pay their debt.

2009-03-13

Comment

0.740

Trading at $.72 and cash value is about $.93. He prefers their convertible bond, which gives him a good way to sit on cash. It is trading at $.40 on the $1. (See Top Picks.) US refinery produces jet fuel and the margins on this are good because of a lack of producers.

2009-03-13

DON'T BUY

0.800

Robert McWhirter

Seasonally, oil should perform fairly well for the near-term. Heavy oil faces challenges. His model ranks it in the bottom 5% of his database. Expect they will cut back on their CapX.

2009-01-26

SELL

0.850

Cutting back at the Great Divide project from 9000 barrels to 5000. Low commodity prices make it difficult for some of these oil sands projects to work. Better names available.

2009-01-02

BUY

0.660

Because of low oil prices and high differentials they are probably not making money on a net basis after operating costs, so they cut back production on their 1st phase and delayed the 2nd phase. Still like this one. Great growth profile.

2008-12-18

HOLD

1.050

(Market Call Minute.) Very good name. Oil sands player but doing things in bite-size chunks and where the commodity is, it is hard to see it going higher

2008-12-03

Comment

1.260

Junior companies are going to have a problem picking up cash in this environment. Would be cautious. With patience and not a large percentage of your portfolio or if you want to average down, it is okay.

2008-11-28

HOLD

1.690

Robert Floyd

(Market Call Minute.) Doing a reasonable job but would like to see a little more financial strength.

2008-10-30

BUY

1.950

Probably a victim of environmental issues or concerns about costs of oil sands projects. They are developing steam-assisted gravity projects at 10,000 barrels a day. Will incrementally add in 10,000 phases so doesn't have cost overrun risks to the same degree. Projects are quite manageable. Fully financed for phase 2. Low risk way to play oil sands production. Extraordinarily cheap. Good long-term hold.

2008-10-21

BUY

3.460

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Recently bought this for the first time in her career. Oil sands focused but also have some conventional production as well as natural gas production. Have been on schedule and within budget.

2008-09-12

BUY

3.970

Refinery in Montana, oil sands producer and have 14 out of 15 wells on production. Very experienced management team. Not a core position, but something you could buy and will see good value over time.

2008-08-22

TOP PICK

3.670

(His 3 picks include one each from industrials, gold and oil.) Has made a base between mid-2006 and mid-2008. Has a very solid upside target of about $6.

2008-08-15

Comment

4.040

An emerging oils sands play. Getting some production from its Great Divide project. Has a refining piece in Montana. It is so prospective in terms of its development and so small. History of oil sands has been cost overruns and operation difficulties. Seasoned management team but not as focused as they could be.

2008-08-06

BUY

4.050

Heavy oil producer, mainly in the Seal (?) area of Alberta. Growing its production very quickly, which is why its share price is so high. Have a refinery in Montana which is more of a liability at the moment.

2008-07-18

PARTIAL BUY

3.850

Good name. Did a measured approach to their oil sands development. Have a refining piece in Montana as well as a stake in Petrolifera Petroleum (PDP-T). Wouldn't be his top pick. Until they get further down the road, it's a little early to throw a ton of money at it. Oil sands projects tend to be problem plagued and expensive.

2008-07-16

TOP PICK

4.480