| DON'T BUY | 6.770 | Robert Lauzon | (Market Call Minute.) Probably a value play but he would still avoid it. Technology is changing and they have a lot of CapX to spend. | 2008-04-28 | |
| SELL | 5.900 | Sandy McIntyre | (Market Call Minute.) Doesn't like the business. | 2008-02-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.710 | Andrew Guy, CFA | Now trying to move into high definition DVDs. As always, there’s a transition point, which is painful for people who own the stock. The decline in DVD’s has not as yet been offset by a demand for high definition DVDs. Was also impacted by the stronger Cdn$. | 2007-12-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.560 | Michael Simpson, CFA | No reason to own this one. | 2007-11-08 | |
| HOLD | 16.390 | Chris Rankin, MBA, CFA | DVD consumption is low. Distribution is not safe. History of the business, is that with each new technology (cassettes, cds, dvds) there is a good profit. This eventually dies down.
It's at a hold now, because it's so cheap, someone will "just take it"
or possibly take it private. | 2007-10-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.700 | Brian Acker, CA | The model price is $16.38, a negative 8% differential. In another couple of years, there will be a 30% tax on the distributions, so basically you are getting your own money back. | 2007-10-10 | |
| HOLD | 18.900 | David Baskin | Long time holder. The market is telling us that the distribution is unsustainable. Be happier if stock was trade at $30 with 10% yield, would say people had more confidence. There’s a big 4th quarter coming. History of successful transitions. | 2007-09-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 19.900 | Patrick Kim | Need to be very aggressive investor to hold position right now. People are worried about new technology. Definitely a decline in volumes they’re shipping. They want to be known as a logistics company. A transformation story. Not worth risk unless aggressive. | 2007-09-21 | |
| Comment | 19.200 | Ben Cheng | Potentially interesting territory given the low price. The company is the last piece of the puzzle concerning production/screening of movies, the movement of movies into DVDs and DVD production and distribution. Given the extremely strong slate of recent | 2007-09-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.640 | David Baskin | (A Top Pick Aug 24/06. Down 19.8%.) Had ratty earnings last quarter but their peak quarter is the 4th when DVD sales tend to be at their highest. Yield is about 16%. Thinks the market was wrong on this one. | 2007-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.790 | Sandy McIntyre | This is a business that he doesn't know what it would look like 4 years from now. Entertainment content is in the midst of transition. Will there be a continual demand for DVDs and CDs, can the margins continue to be maintained or will excess capacity chop the margin. | 2007-08-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.870 | Peter Hofstra | Ultimately, the long-term trend is anti-DVD. That market is going to slowly disappear. | 2007-07-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 26.700 | David Baskin | Have a long history of transforming. Now manages the distribution channels around the world for a number of major studios. Now going to do this with Motorola to package cell phones and parts. | 2007-06-19 | |
| BUY | 26.350 | Patrick Kim | Produces and duplicates DVDs, CDs, etc. A lot of people are concerned about how sustainable this business is. Last couple of earnings have been positive. Business is still resilient. Good track record of morphing and understanding trends. | 2007-05-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 25.000 | David Baskin | Pays 15%. Just acquired a software company to take advantage of their distribution network. Feels it will be a takeover. Cash flow generation is attractive. | 2007-04-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.190 | Peter Hofstra | They are the printers of CDs and DVDs. The long-term trend of that business is declining. There'll be more and more of this business done through the Internet. | 2007-03-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.310 | John Zechner | Good cash generation. Strong management. Short-term outlook is fine. CD’s are not a business he wants to be invested in. | 2006-11-08 | |
| HOLD | 22.450 | David Baskin | Still okay, but he would like to see the Christmas earnings in early February. The future of this industry is very much in doubt as broadband downloading of movies, continues to increase. Feels the high-definition DVD market will extend the life of the industry for another 3 to 5 years. | 2006-10-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.350 | John Zechner | Doesn't think the future's in CDs. Great company. Well-run. Great cash flow generator. | 2006-09-27 | |
| Comment | 22.100 | Robert Floyd | Amaranth Capital, the largest shareholder, are looking to sell their holdings. This can distort the price for a short period. | 2006-09-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.250 | Robert Lauzon | DVD sales are down. Haven’t been a lot of hot, new movies in the last few years to drive big aftermarket sales. With the possibility of movies being sold online, it's a tough industry. | 2006-09-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 23.250 | David Baskin | All 3 Top Picks are tremendous cash flow generators that are not getting any respect from the market. Broadband downloading of movies will take a while before it is widespread. Paying 14% distributions. Paying less than 100% of their cash flow and their balance sheet is not leveraged. | 2006-08-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.290 | Garth Jestley | Just reported and their results are way off due to declining DVD sales. | 2006-08-11 | |
| SELL | 25.960 | Greg Guichon | Excellent management and balance sheet. Didn't like the changes in technology were they were going from CDs and DVDs to a new format and the new format is unclear. Also not sure what the CapX requirements would be to move over. | 2006-07-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.970 | John Zechner | In the process of converting to an income trust. There may be a short term pop on the value when they restructure. Longer term, can't see where the business is going. Thinks it's going to be a slow deterioration. | 2006-04-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.500 | Sandy McIntyre | Earnings and revenues have been down in the 4th quarter. Cinram has been very volatile in its margins over the past 5 years. They have been trying to reinvent themselves. A lot of the stocks are owned by hedge funds which has forced them into this mess. | 2006-03-04 | |
| HOLD | 28.330 | Peter Hodson | Looking at becoming an income trust which would boost the stock to $32/33. Thinks it's definitely going to happen now. Would sell at the $30 level unless you want an income trust. | 2005-08-23 | |
| SELL | 22.300 | Peter Hodson | They are still looking at an income trust scenario. If it's a NO, there's probably a $4/5 hit the stock will take. There are better opportunities out there. | 2005-07-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 23.270 | Peter Hodson | It's probably worth about $20 before becoming an income trust, but as a trust it is probably worth$30/31. It is very critical that they turn this into an income trust. They are thinking about it and looking at strategic options. Have a lot of work to do to change it into a trust. | 2005-06-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.100 | Gavin Graham | There is some talk of turning it into an income trust. The difficulty is that it makes media storage devices such as CD's, DVD's, etc. and now we are looking at a new generation of DVD's and and each time there is a new method it takes a lot of money in getting the new production into play. | 2005-06-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.010 | Brendan Kyne | Moved up on income trust rumours, but pulled back on poor financial results. Has an interesting business that could potentially offer some value from a trust perspective, but fuel costs indirectly affect them. Feels that petroleum prices have moved to a new trading range which will raise their incremental costs which will squeeze their profits. | 2005-05-31 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | 26.500 | Andrew McCreath | (A Top Pick Jan 17/05. Up 26%.) When the stock got down to the high teens, they went long. Sold their position a few weeks ago. | 2005-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 25.240 | Peter Hodson | Now have a situation where it is a catalytic event for the company. 25% of the company is held in very aggressive hedge funds and management owns less than 10%. As an income trust it is probably worth $35/37. Not a big fan of income trusts, but a big fan of creating value. | 2005-04-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.350 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $26.87 which is about a 12% difference. Doesn't think there will be much in a valuation increase in terms of where it is trading relative to his balance sheet. | 2005-03-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 22.950 | David Baskin | Company makes DVD, has evolved from audio cassettes, video cassettes, to DVD, will evolve to the next thing. Likes the management. | 2005-03-08 | |
| HOLD | 20.890 | David Baskin | Thursday will report earnings, if they had favorable earnings stock will take a bounce up, if earnings are bad stock will fall. DVD sales were huge in 4th quarter. If company managed their raw material expenses, outlook looks good. | 2005-02-28 | |
| SHORT | 21.000 | David Chapman | In a down trend. Chart indicates it could be rolling over again. Looks like a possible short as it's nearing its down trend line and could break through. If you short, use a STOP. | 2005-02-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.100 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Think the pressure's still on. A counter balance would be Nova (NCX-T). It's stock has done well and they supply some of the inputs which Cinram needs. Expects earnings will be flat, but come Christmas is when the big blockbusters come out with their DVD's. | 2005-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.990 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Running into problems because resin prices are going through the roof. Announced a disasterous quarter. Will continue to struggle. Still not dirt cheap, so hasn't re-visited. | 2005-02-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.340 | Ron Meisels | Had a rally recently from $17 to $22, but then ran into its falling 200 day moving average which is a very negative sign. Can't see much upside for it. If shorting have a mental stop-loss at $23.25. | 2005-01-20 | |
| TOP SHORT | 21.000 | Andrew McCreath | Has stumbled a couple of times in the last few months. Having problems on the imput cost side of things. Penetration of DVD in North America has reached a point where growth rates will slow down for their product. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.900 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Doesn't expect to see any catalyst for this stock over the next quarter or two. Their guidance reflected that they saw some weakness ahead. Has always been concerned with more and more audio and video being delivered over different media. Well run company and good management, but limited upside. | 2004-12-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.640 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Reported numbers a little better than what the street was expecting. Looks cheap from an earnings perspective. Growth is through acquisition, but at some time that growth will slow down. OK near term, but concerns on long term. | 2004-11-03 | |
| BUY | 23.250 | Ian Nakamoto | An excellent company. Tends to go up in quantum leaps, then pause, then go up again. In a pause right now. Well managed. | 2004-11-02 | |
| HOLD | 22.250 | Brian Acker, CA | Needs to continue with positive fundamentals in order to move higher. | 2004-10-26 | |
| BUY | 23.050 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Has been frustrating. Good price. Restructured their debt and reduced costs. Feels that DVD's still have at least 3 years. Good management. | 2004-10-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 22.000 | David Baskin | The biggest concern is piracy of DVD's, but doesn't believe that will happen, especially in the short term. 3rd/4th quarter earnings should be strong, especially with Christmas sales. | 2004-10-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.750 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Seems to have created a bottom in the $20 area. The short term chart shows a clear down trend with a little bit of support in the $20 area. If it makes a new low, then the downtrend is still in play. | 2004-09-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.650 | David Burrows | The big question is can they make the purchase of AOL-DVD pay. Not performing as well as before. | 2004-09-02 | |
| HOLD | 21.200 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Concern for losing large contracts. However, values for stocks will increase next half of the year. | 2004-08-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 21.150 | Bruce Campbell | Made good acquisitions. The fear of the public being able to download videos is the major risk/worry. Feels there is still a couple of years of growth left. Will buy near $20. | 2004-08-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.690 | Ron Meisels | Has not formed a bottom yet. Will need a lot more time.The 200 day moving average has turned down. A lot of negative on this stock. In a downtrend channel. | 2004-08-24 | |
| BUY | 21.600 | David Baskin | Really cheap. Second quarter was weak, but not surprising. | 2004-08-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.500 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Earnings estimates are coming down which is never a good sign. | 2004-07-23 | |
| HOLD | 24.320 | Ian Ainsworth | Has a massive cash flow. Have done a great job in signing large customers. Probably will have slowing growth going forward. | 2004-07-13 | |
| STRONG BUY | 24.050 | David Baskin | Trading at 11 X earnings. Keeps making money quarter after quarter and accelerating. A bargain at this price. | 2004-07-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.350 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Feels the company will earn about two dollars a share. At 15 X earnings, it's fully priced. | 2004-06-22 | |
| BUY | 24.610 | David Baskin | Feels that DVDs will continue to be a growth industry for at least 3/4 years. Undervalued based on its current earnings and future prospects. | 2004-06-17 | |
| HOLD | 24.920 | Michael Smedley | Worry about new technologies. Will be alright with it. | 2004-06-16 | |
| BUY | 24.610 | Pierre Bernard | Good co., fair value at this price. | 2004-06-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.250 | David Driscoll | The acquisition of Time Warner has put $1 billion of debt on their books so the debt to cash flow is sitting close to 10 X which is very unhealthy. Video on demand is on the horizon which could have a negative effect on the sale of DVDs. Too expensive. | 2004-06-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 25.830 | David Baskin | Thinks it will make money like crazy. A massive amount of product that is being produced for DVDs. Trading at 11 X earnings. | 2004-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.600 | Kyle McKay | Investors are waiting to see if they can integrate their Time Warner acquisition. Haven't seen the growth expected. Valuation is a little rich. | 2004-05-27 | |
| BUY | 24.500 | David Baskin | Their last results beat out estimates, but were reported during a slide in technology stocks. Have done a terrific job with their merger. | 2004-05-14 | |
| HOLD | 24.300 | Laura Wallace | Has dropped in sympathy with the rest the market. A very interesting company and has been very good at reinventing itself. Well-managed. | 2004-05-04 | |
| WEAK BUY | 23.090 | David Burrows | Had an enormous run. There is some concern that there is integration risk regarding their AOL purchase. The future does look bright and if we were in the right kind of market conditions it could be very good. | 2004-04-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.400 | Ross Healy | Hit at peak at a little over $30 which coincides with his fair market value of $32. Downside target is about $21. | 2004-04-29 | |
| WAIT | 23.940 | Gavin Graham | The Time Warner acquisition was a great deal. Had to take on some extra debt. Waiting to see if they can handle this acquisition. | 2004-04-27 | |
| BUY | 24.000 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Feels their year will be as strong as expected, if not a little better. Some concern on the MGM contract if MGM is sold but they have three years on it. Has been oversold. | 2004-04-22 | |
| BUY | 24.000 | John Zechner | Doesn't feel the CDs will be a long-term growth story, but for now, it's a great cash generating business. Have made some good moves in the past year. | 2004-04-22 | |
| BUY | 23.750 | Andrew McCreath | Earnings are to be reported in early May and there are rumors that they'll miss their numbers and will take write-downs but he doesn't believe either is correct. A cheap stock and their financials will generate a lot of cash over the next few years. | 2004-04-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.350 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price for this company has dropped considerably to $27.50. Stock-price could drop to $22.80. | 2004-04-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.450 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Have done a tremendous job in a very tough market. Doesn't look at it as a long-term growth opportunity, so wouldn't fit in their scenario. | 2004-04-02 | |
| BUY | 26.460 | David Baskin | Surprised that the stock dropped when the last quarter's results came out. | 2004-03-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 26.500 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Pulled back on rumors that MGM was going to be an acquisition target. A great opportunity to buy the company. You'll see huge amounts of cash flow come off this business. | 2004-03-18 | |
| BUY | 26.350 | Norman Levine | Thinks the prospects for this company over the next couple of years is very good. As more and more things go online, would be concerned about the manufacturing capacity they acquired. | 2004-03-12 | |
| BUY | 28.150 | Kyle McKay | Came a little light on consensus earnings. Recently won the MGM contract which will have a positive impact on earnings. | 2004-03-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.200 | Michael Smedley | Has been marking time for quite awhile, possibly for some news. Has acquired new production facilities. Could be static for a while. | 2004-03-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.250 | John Zechner | A little worried about the longer-term. A lot of downloading and a lot is held on hard drives and wireless devices where capacity is growing phenomenally so the CD business is going to become more difficult. | 2004-03-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 29.250 | David Baskin | (A top pick Dec 9/03. Down 3%.) Waiting for the earnings to come out. Expecting a big fourth-quarter. Based on their new deal, the stock could reach $34/36 without being overpriced. | 2004-03-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.250 | Peter Brieger | Thinks it's an accident waiting to happen. In a year two, there will be video on demand through the cable companies. Feels that DVD sales will drop. | 2004-03-01 | |
| BUY | 25.460 | David Baskin | Expects their last quarter will be a giant ones based on the Christmas sales of DVDs. | 2004-02-17 | |
| WAIT | 26.550 | David Chapman | The technical indicators are somewhat negative. Volume has fallen off. If it breaks to the down side, could fall very rapidly. Wait to see which way it will break. | 2004-02-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 28.470 | Andrew McCreath | (A top pick Oct 20/03. Up 27.35/26.32 %.) In pause territory. 4th quarter will be reported in March and expects it to be incredibly robust. Very solid growth prospects. | 2004-01-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.000 | Norman Levine | Had a fabulous run. Worries that the DVD market will evolve with downloading. We'll make some very good money in the near-term but over the long-term could be a problem. | 2004-01-21 | |
| BUY | 27.400 | Robert McWhirter | Ranks just above the middle of the database. Earnings are expected to grow dramatically in 2004. P/E to growth is dirt cheap. | 2004-01-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.200 | Mark Jackson, CFA | In the near term, the stock has had a very good move. Take some profits. Longer term, DVDs will be of some risk. | 2004-01-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 28.240 | Laura Wallace | The challenge will be to take care of the debt they had to acquire to make their acquisition of AOL. A disciplined management team. Would try to buy at a lower price. | 2004-01-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 28.240 | David Baskin | The sale, penetration of DVD players is far greater than what people expected. Fourth-quarter should be outstanding. | 2004-01-07 | |
| BUY | 29.020 | Robert McWhirter | Very close to breaking out of of its high. Expects a 57% earnings growth. Very cheap. | 2004-01-05 | |
| VAGUE | 26.100 | Ted Macklin | A good company. They will get competition from more and more music being down loaded off the Internet. | 2003-12-16 | |
| BUY | 26.100 | David Burrows | With the acquisition the size of AOL, there is some added will take some time to consolidate. Could have big earnings going forward. Risk. | 2003-12-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 27.750 | David Baskin | The purchase of AOL-Time Warner is transformational for the company. At | 2003-12-09 | |
| HOLD | 27.900 | Ron Meisels | Came out of a major base formation and had a wonderful rise. However, the huge move has never had a correction and the possibility is always there. Would not buy at this point. Use a stop loss around the $23 area. | 2003-11-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 26.600 | Robert McWhirter | (A top pick Oct 10/03. No change.) Still likes. Ranks well in their model. Earnings are expected to grow from $1.36 to $2.23. | 2003-11-21 | |
| BUY | 27.290 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | A buying opportunity. | 2003-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.000 | John Zechner | Earnings are coming in, but will have to see how their acquisition works out. May stall for a while. | 2003-11-13 | |
| SELL | 28.050 | Peter Arender, CFA | Earnings up 29% year-over-year. Has been a huge success story. Historically, it is at the point where it turned around in 1997/98. | 2003-11-11 | |
| WATCH | 27.430 | Mark Jackson, CFA | The big risk is, can they roll in the acquisition and manage the hyper growth it will create. Interesting. | 2003-11-04 | |
| STRONG BUY | 27.350 | David Burrows | With me new acquisition, in the short term there will be some indigestion. This is a very big opportunity. | 2003-11-03 | |
Experts that have talked about Cinram
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