STOCKCHASE

(A Top Pick Feb 14/11. Up 9.04%.)

2012-02-08

TOP PICK

8.650

Haven't been too great for a long time but they've got their focus. Have about 30% in the US. Have an affiliation with a manager who is going to manage a lot of their properties. They are negotiating for a portfolio owned by European group worth about $1 billion. Will probably be a big opportunity but could also be a challenge.

2012-01-06

TOP PICK

8.040

Good yield at just under 7%. Also likes the demographics of their business. Penetration rate in Canada and the US is quite low. Refocusing their US strategy by selling some non-core assets and reinvesting in the 4 core states they want to be in.

2011-12-01

TOP PICK

7.650

Very hard to make money on seniors housing but this is a group that is finally putting it together. 25% of their holdings is in the US, which came out with much better numbers than expected. Selling off a lot of units in the US and concentrating in 4 states. High yield.

2011-11-16

TOP PICK

7.440

Doesn’t like seniors housing but this one is very cheap. Trading at around 14X free cash flow. Probably worth $8.50-$8.75.

2011-10-21

BUY

7.100

Everyone thinks retirement/nursing homes are wonderful because of demographics but it is a hard business. Margins are tight. His guess is that with risk, (don’t put too much in) it should do well over time.

2011-10-18

TOP PICK

7.060

Operator of seniors housing – 25% in US, rest in Canada. 7.5% yield. People are aging. 5% of individuals in Canada live in seniors housing. Many seniors waited until after recession to sell house and move into senior’s residence so occupancy is increasing.

2011-10-12

Comment

7.270

Jeffrey F. Olin

Seniors housing space. Has been challenged in this space. Has some exposure in the US, which has been in minefield for seniors housing. Management is stabilized and solid. This is a sector you might be cautious of.

2011-09-26

TOP PICK

7.180

Retirement homes in Ontario. Have done a lot of work, which the market has not accepted. 25% of their businesses in the US where they have turned the management over to a high-quality service. Concentrating on 4 states and selling the rest. 7.5% yield.

2011-09-19

BUY

6.770

US government reimbursement scare dropped the stock. Also got painted with Extendicare (EXE.UN-T) because about 25% of their suites are in the US, but these are private care, meaning the individuals pay not the government. Over 8% yield.

2011-09-14

PAST TOP PICK

6.630

David Burrows

(Top Pick Sept. 28/10, Down 17.82) Thought that market was improving with capacity to fill up. In Q4 it turned out they weren’t filling up. They weren’t able to hit the numbers so he exited. Business fundamentals were deteriorating.

2011-09-13

WEAK BUY

7.180

David Baskin

Demand for seniors housing will do nothing but increase in our lifetime. He is concerned about government regulation and the impact on profitability. Governments are coming down from chronic care and continuing care down to the light care. Liberals especially would increase regulation of these kinds of housing. There is tremendous growth potential but he is worried about regulation. He likes H&R REIT, Cromby REIT, and Canadian Apartment REIT.

2011-08-24

BUY

7.050

Peter Brieger

Likes this for the fundamentals and of the $.54 distribution, only $0.03 is taxable and the rest is return of capital.

2011-08-18

WEAK BUY

7.090

Almost all in Canada. One of the problems they all have is they always have trouble making money. He has it just for yield. Retirement home business. Suspicion there will be a new big issue come in. He thinks it’s ok but don’t go in heavily.

2011-08-12

BUY

7.040

Operations have turned around nicely over the last couple of years. Cheap. He might look at this for himself in the next couple of months.

2011-08-10

TOP PICK

7.200

Very cheap because it has been selling off in sympathy with Extendicare REIT (EXE.UN-T) but this one has no skilled nursing facilities in the US. Good opportunity. Expecting a 30% total return.

2011-08-04

WEAK BUY

8.000

Seniors housing has been checkered with a series of disappointments. This is one of the ones that have survived but stock has still been very disappointing. Just came out with a secondary issue, which is probably the base for it. Not wild about it

2011-07-18

SELL

8.500

Jeffrey F. Olin

Seniors housing space. Have had some challenges and some management changes. Currently faced with some challenges in the US. Demographic profile favours them. Wouldn't be his favourite. Would prefer Leisure World (LW-T).

2011-06-21

TOP PICK

8.480

Seniors housing operator in Canada and the US with about 25% from the US. Seniors will become a larger proportion of the overall population. Occupancy has declined due to the recession but over time it will improve. I've made some management changes, which should be positive. Good yield at 6.7%.

2011-06-20

BUY on WEAKNESS

8.770

At this price there isn’t a ton of upside left. (Worth about $9.25-$9.50). Offers a very compelling yield and is 100% return of capital, so you don’t pay taxes on proceeds. Try to get it at around $8.

2011-05-26

WATCH

8.890

Chartwell Reit`s evaluation, execution and retirement utility generation of funds (RUG) has caused a drop. He likes Leisure World better but still feels Chartwell will recover and go up.

2011-05-17

TOP PICK

8.940

75% of suites are in Canada, rest in US. Population is getting older. Typically seniors have to sell house to move, and with depressed housing market, stock was depressed because of vacancy rates. 6% yield is safe. Good capital upside.

2011-03-30

TOP PICK

8.440

Senior housing. Likes the aging demographics. Population in Canada is expected to grow by 4 million in the next 10 years with over half from 65 and up. Good yield of 6.4%.

2011-02-14

PAST TOP PICK

8.240

(Top Pick Jan 19/10, Up 21.88%)

2011-01-07

PAST TOP PICK

8.500

(Top Pick Jan 19/10, Up 23%) A cost of capital play- they secure CMHC financing. Disappointing quarter this quarter, but it is an operating business. He still has faith in the business. 6.5% yield.

2010-11-17

TOP PICK

8.750

David Burrows

Likes the REIT space. Have about 25,000 beds/suites in senior housing. Currently at about 90% capacity so there is upside as they fill that up.

2010-09-28

BUY on WEAKNESS

8.120

Historically has not like this name but they changed management, de-levered balance sheet and cut distributions twice. Assets are good, so stepped in after 2nd cut and has done very well. Try to get in the $7’s.

2010-08-20

BUY

7.700

Seniors housing. Attractively priced. 6.9% yield.

2010-07-15

BUY on WEAKNESS

7.300

Own primarily independent living and assisted living residences. Really not geared for aging demographics. There is a huge spread between the cash flow and financing costs. Distributions have been cut to a level that are sustainable. Try to buy at around $7.

2010-04-28

HOLD

7.250

Everyone says that nursing homes and retirement homes is a big growth market but it is a very hard market to make money at. Wouldn't buy if you are a conservative investor because there are risks to it.

2010-03-19

HOLD

7.370

Don Lato

Has moved up nicely off the bottom from a year ago. Had a couple of distribution cuts so is now down around 7%. Getting to be fairly fully priced.

2010-02-10

TOP PICK

7.470

This name had tones of turnover – asset sales, management, restructuring and 2 distribution cuts. Access to CMHC financing (4% or better). It’s a consolidation play. They did a good job of managing debt maturity profile. Trading below net asset value.

2010-01-19

DON'T BUY

6.840

Barry Schwartz

Seniors housing real estate trust. Hasn't performed well in the past few years. A tough industry to be in. Regulations can change quickly.

2010-01-04

DON'T BUY

6.000

Michael Sprung

Have cut the distribution and he thinks it was sufficient enough that there shouldn't be a problem. Operations haven't been performing as well as expected. Probably better places to be.

2009-10-14

HOLD

6.360

Nursing homes. High yield. Has been challenged in the past. New management. A bit of a risky situation but his feeling is that it is going to improve.

2009-09-03

Comment

6.210

Has been an improving story. New numbers will be coming out shortly and he'll have a better feel for it. May be overpaying on its distributions. Had a lot of problems but changed management and are now refocused. He is happy to stay with him and thinks he will add more.

2009-08-10

Comment

5.570

Middle of the road to slightly above in terms of seniors housing. Residents tend to live here on investment portfolios and selling their homes. Homes are declining in value and investment portfolios are still off anywhere from 30% to 50%. He has a “wait-and-see” attitude on this one.

2009-07-20

BUY

5.590

Seniors housing and have access to cheap CMHC financing. Good play on demographics over the longer term. High-quality assets. Risk/reward is quite good. Leverage is a little bit higher than some of the other REITs.

2009-07-17

WATCH

5.360

Companies that are currently structured as REITs will have to come under tighter guidelines to continue to qualify. Business that is held under the REIT unit structure has to be passive in nature so it is a long that borderline. Thinks this one can easily restructure so it is not a concern to him. Watch to see what management does.

2009-07-13

Comment

5.230

Owns/operates seniors’ residences in Canada and US giving a regulated and unregulated market. Loan to value is high at around 75% and too aggressive for this environment. Growth strategy will be hard to put in place. If you believe in the demographics, it probably has some value but he prefers a pristine balance sheet.

2009-07-08

PARTIAL BUY

5.350

Been through a lot including change of management. Vulnerable because their homes are not cheap and they depend a lot on people being able to sell houses. If you own, you could “dollar average” in with a bit more. Recent numbers have been better. Thinks 14% yield is sustainable.

2009-06-25

DON'T BUY

5.430

Seniors housing with a significant amount of US assets. No debt due you until it 2013. Always seems to be operational issues.

2009-06-03

PAST TOP PICK

5.240

(A Top Pick Apr 28/08. Down 38.11%.) Will come out of this downturn pretty good because of demographics and you get paid to wait. Able to get CMHC financing giving them a lower cost of capital. 14% distribution. Still a Buy.

2009-05-26

BUY

5.100

Has some good upside. Have access to low cost CMHC financing. Their business tends to be stable. Just had a change in CEO’s and the new one is more operationally focused. Comfortable with the 14.6% yield.

2009-05-22

HOLD

4.520

Distribution is not safe. Stock has not done well. Problems with US holdings, Ontario and Quebec. Liquidity is a problem. He has seen the sell off, but is still rating it a hold.

2009-05-04

HOLD

4.520

Stable business. Distribution is not safe. No room for requisitions. Stock has not done well. Hinted they want to get out of US. Growing in maintenance mode. Problems with Ontario and Quebec holdings, Liquidity a problem. He has seen the sell off, but is still rating it a hold.

2009-05-04

BUY

4.300

(Market Call Minute) New Management – likes it.

2009-04-27

Comment

4.080

Senior housing. Have a lot of confidence in the new CEO that is coming in. Operational numbers trended well for the last couple of quarters. Expecting some good upside.

2009-04-02

Comment

4.000

Primary retirement housing in Canada and US. Had some operational issues right from its IPO. Some concerns if they will be able to meet debt obligations when they come due. If they could get their operating costs in line, they would be okay.

2009-03-25

DON'T BUY

3.950

Senior housing facilities in Canada/US. An accretive acquisition and roll up story. You can buy seniors housing anywhere from 9 to 12-13 caps (?) and your cost of financing is in the 6%-8% range. Can tap into CMHC financing in Canada, but not in the US. Expect them to tread water for the foreseeable future. Have some issues with acquisition of the external developer and have always had operational issues. Better value and less risk elsewhere.

2009-03-17

BUY

5.790

(Market Call Minute.) Stock has been quite beaten up. Outlook for seniors housing is quite good. Have access to cheap liquidity from CHMC. Potential takeout.

2009-02-03

DON'T BUY

5.370

Sandy McIntyre

Beginning to hit some of their numbers operationally. Prefers other REITs.

2009-01-22

VAGUE

4.390

Paying 17%, nice contract win, REITS are cheap, but he is not interested in this one.

2008-12-16

Comment

3.800

Very well run. Has been very acquisitive over the last few years but this has slowed down considerably. This will refocus them on the company operations, which is a good thing. Food, labour and energy costs have been moving higher into mid-2008. Expects to see these costs start to decline.

2008-12-08

Comment

3.500

Seniors/long-term-care space both in Canada and US. Have a history of forecasting cash flows and not meeting it. They now have a good chance of meeting their targets. He will be watching their next couple of earnings to see if they can meet their targets.

2008-11-20

TOP PICK

3.500

Don Lato

Recently announced results and they earned their distributions. Have plenty of funds to satisfy distribution requirements over the next year. 21% yield.

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY

4.380

Seniors housing REIT. Not been a big fan because operationally it has been very difficult. Prefers REITs that own real estate and lease it out long-term. Cut their distribution 30% and then lowered guidance to the point where they were over distributing again.

2008-11-03

PAST TOP PICK

4.400

(A Top Pick Apr 28/08. Down 52%.) Dropped because of US$ exposure and market weakness. Debt to equity ratio is more severe than what he would like. High-risk story. Good possibility company gets consolidated when the market recovers. You can Buy, but only take a half position for now and Buy the rest later.

2008-10-29

HOLD

6.950

Were focused on acquisitions and payout ratio continues to be more than 100%. The longer it stays down at these levels the more it could be bought and it should be held with that in mind.

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

7.800

Reported yesterday and missed mainly because of currency exchange. Cut distributions about 30% earlier this year. Questions management’s ability.

2008-08-13

PAST TOP PICK

8.500

(A Top Pick July 23/07. Down 40% total return.) Was a seller at higher prices. Have changed their philosophy, which makes him a little bit more optimistic. Instead of acquiring, they are focusing on their operations. One of the best operators in their business. Cost pressures are hurting their bottom line.

2008-08-07

DON'T BUY

10.100

Cut their distribution recently, which was right. Strategy had been to grow into the distribution, which they failed to do. Offers fairly attractive value but you have to underwrite the growth to get an attractive return. Would be looking for it below $9.50 before Buying again.

2008-06-12

HOLD

10.170

People have not made money in this area. Have made a number of acquisitions and are creating a portfolio that someone will want. Almost always surprise on the negative in their reports. Have bought their convertibles, but not the stock.

2008-06-02

BUY

9.960

Ken McCord

REITs in general are a good income player right now. Real estate trusts are a good opportunity to pick up some good value and get a good yield.

2008-05-23

Comment

9.820

Gavin Graham

Senior housing was a disaster area. Had thought demographics looked wonderful, but they stuck 20,000 beds on in an 18-24 months space. Overcapacity and couldn’t get enough staff and margins got shot to pieces. Has now stabilized but there has been a selloff in REITs. Operations and management are pretty good.

2008-05-20

TOP PICK

9.500

Had been over distributing the last few years and finally cut their distributions so the balance sheet is a little cleaner going forward. A large owner/operator of long-term care facilities. This will be a good story for the next 10 years. Could be taken over in the next few years.

2008-04-28

PAST TOP PICK

9.370

(A Top Pick July 23/07. Down 35% including distributions.) Always followed a philosophy of growing internally and through acquisition. Last year investors lost patience with the continued acquisition strategy with no benefits on the bottom line. Integration has proved difficult for them. New management will be focusing more on the bottom line. Still a Buy.

2008-04-16

WEAK BUY

8.880

Been buyers at the $8.5 level, based on the free cash flow yield. Would buy at this level. Comfortable with their payout ratio at 100%

2008-03-24

Comment

10.210

Senior housing/launching will not qualify as REITs for tax purposes. Tax will be minimal for them. They have had operational issues. If it dropped below $10, it would be extremely cheap and he would have a hard time not buying it. He went unload his position at $11.50 or better.

2008-02-29

DON'T BUY

10.400

Payout ratio is way too high and is almost certainly going to have to cut its distribution. 10% is a very high yield. If the price ever came down to around $9, it would certainly be a good buy.

2008-02-14

HOLD

10.480

Gail Mifsud

Was under a strategic review process for much of 2007. This does not fit the criteria of REITs for tax purposes. Expect that this will eventually become privatized. Not sure if the distribution is safe.

2008-02-01

Comment

9.930

Dean Orrico

This REIT has struggled since inception. Payout ratio is over 100%, which is usually a negative. Put itself up for sale unsuccessfully last year. Expect someone will take the business out as it has good assets. Hard to tell if there will be a cut in distributions.

2008-01-29

BUY

9.490

(Market Call Minute.) At this level it looks attractive. Has consistently missed on its earnings to cash flow but he would buy it here.

2008-01-22

DON'T BUY

9.990

Seniors residences. Ha more activity than most. Has expanded a lot. Been a huge disappointment at times because of numbers. Because they don't fit the REIT criteria they will have to restructure. Have set themselves up to be taken over. An area that very few companies have made any money at. Given the yield on it, it is Buyer Beware.

2008-01-18

BUY

9.990

Owner/operator of seniors housing facilities. Mainly independent living and assisted living through Canada and the US. Missed on their quarterly numbers for a number of quarters in a row and will not qualify as a REIT going forward and will be taxable. At these levels, you are getting a significant discount to NAV. If you Buy start lightening your position at around $12.

2007-12-07

HOLD

10.010

Kevin Hall BComm, CFA

There has been a lot going on in the seniors housing space this year. Trading at around 11X AFFO. They are over distributing. Has been a growth by acquisition. Have a very good platform in the US and Canada, however have not been able to grow accretively on a per unit basis. There is potential for a distribution cut.

2007-12-04

HOLD

10.190

One of the names that is really in a “show me” mode now. Has been a perennial disappointer in growing its cash flows and managing its payout ratios. Starting to see some better metrics. Acquisition program is starting to slow down and seeing some decent growth in same property Net Operating Income.

2007-11-28

HOLD

10.140

Gavin Graham

Beneficial stable interest rates have had an inverse negative affect on stock price, cant figure this out. An excellent place to be. As the price decreases its likely someone will come and take company because it’s a great longer term business. Like management and longer term demographics. 10.5% yield.

2007-11-19

Comment

10.200

Michael Decter

They had been trying to sell and had 3 reliable bidders, but they all walked away. He sold his holdings at that time. Hasn't followed this in the last month or so.

2007-11-12

Comment

11.080

Retirement housing with homes in Canada and the US. Because of rapid growth, they’ve had difficulty with some of their G & A costs. Partnered with a large firm in the US. As the valuation has come down, it is becoming more interesting. Could be sold or privatized in the next 2 years.

2007-11-08

HOLD

12.220

Not been fans of these guys, because they keep on expanding and expanding but they are disappointing on their numbers. They need to reorganize because they are no longer considered a REIT. Their payout is more then 100%. Your chances of losing here are limited.

2007-10-29

HOLD

12.900

Has declined over the last several weeks since they announced there is no sale in the cards. They are in a “show me” mode here. Had been on a big acquisition binge and had not focused on bringing their operations into line.

2007-10-03

WEAK BUY

13.200

Has constantly disappointed people with its earnings. Have been for sale for a long time. Retirement category is supposed to be wonderful but hardly anyone makes money at it. On extreme weakness like today, he buys. Paying out more than its earnings. 8% yield could be cut back.

2007-09-14

DON'T BUY

15.500

Got caught very big with the income trust changes and not qualifying as a REIT. Would like to sell off income assets in order to qualify. There have been no takers. Have a big tendency to disappoint on earnings.

2007-07-23

TOP PICK

15.500

Seniors housing space is going to continue to have very good fundamentals driving it. With recent acquisitions, it has moved into the #3 spot in North America.

2007-07-23

TOP PICK

15.860

Very good set of assets. Management team is one of the best in the business. Undervalued.

2007-05-29

SELL

15.840

Michael Sprung

An appealing area to have a REIT in. There is some question as to what the government will consider, a REIT or a business. Yield is less than 7%.

2007-05-28

HOLD

14.190

Sandy McIntyre

Senior housing. Do not qualify as a REIT under government regulations and are moving into a taxable situation due to expansion. Had been sellers when the stock was higher.

2007-04-13

BUY

14.210

Does not qualify as a REIT under the government legislation. Have been raising money and expanding. Good operation with a fairly good yield.

2007-04-11

HOLD

14.190

Seniors housing, so will not qualify as a REIT under the government's legislation. We'll become a business trust with a 4-year tax holiday. Operations seem to continually be a difficulty for the sector.

2007-04-03

HOLD

15.470

Has struggled with some operating issues. Very high growth oriented. Seniors’ housing is a business that she likes longer-term, but a challenge they face is their fast growth creating high expenses. 2008 will be a relatively good year for them.

2007-03-23

HOLD

15.600

Have retirement properties in both Canada and US. Operating costs have been higher than expected in the last 2 quarters.

2007-03-20

BUY

17.350

A seniors-housing REIT. Focuses primarily on independent and assisted living. Have a great joint venture with the US firm. This is a “ buy and hold” for the long-term. Good management.

2007-02-16

HOLD

16.830

Andrew Guy, CFA

ING Realty Investors are rumoured to be interested in this as a takeover. The company has made some recent acquisitions that are attractive. The market has some uncertainty as to how the government will treat this REIT. Feels it is expensive.

2007-02-08

TOP PICK

15.100

Seniors’ housing provider. 7% yield. If you have a long-term time horizon, you can make 8%-10% a year.

2007-01-22

BUY

15.000

A seniors housing REIT. A large growing portfolio in the US. This is a very fragmented market and they are making a lot of accretive acquisitions. Leverages the little higher than normal. Expect them to grow into their payout ratio. Looking for distribution increase towards the end of the year.

2007-01-19

WEAK BUY

14.300

Has made some major acquisitions, of which, one has not performed well. This is probably something worthwhile looking at. The worst is probably already in the market. They'll have to do something to do with their structure. Has potential, but more risk than others.

2007-01-12

BUY

14.250

Long-term care industry in Canada and US. Had brought 3 companies together and had some issues with operating costs, but he thinks they have a legitimate chance of bringing this under control. Sees good growth opportunities in the US and somewhat in Canada.

2007-01-04

Comment

13.670

New trust rules say that to qualify as a REIT, 75% of the properties have to be in Canada. Also, only 5% of your overall revenue stream is coming from management fees. There’s ways around this. Retirement businesses are very highly regulated.

2006-12-19

Comment

14.000