| BUY | 89.650 | John Stephenson | Very levered to oil as well as being one of the larger players in gas in Western Canada. What is very attractive right now is that its oil sands piece is almost complete. An attractive entry point and a great name to own. | 2008-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 100.840 | Peter Brieger | Lots of questions about the oil sands, but they are also very active in other areas including natural gas deep drilling in Canada and offshore Africa. Investors should look at the cash flow after the project is completed. Next Year Horizon should be throwing off $4 in cash flow. A conservative way to play natural gas and the oil sands. | 2008-06-30 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 98.680 | Michael Sprung | Thinks it will cash flow around $10 a share this year. Selling at 3X Book, which is a little high in his estimation. He has been taking some profits. | 2008-06-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 103.700 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Best company in western Canada. Spend extra cash in oil sands projects. Will generate tones of cash with $135 oil. Downside if price of oil comes down. | 2008-06-23 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 103.640 | Ross Healey | His Fair Market Value is over $250 based upon current oil prices. He is getting nervous about the price of energy. If you own, consider selling bits and pieces. | 2008-06-05 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 100.750 | Bruce Campbell | Feels a stock split is coming in the next couple of quarters. Ideally, he would like to buy it a little bit lower but even in the low $90's he would Buy. | 2008-05-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 105.360 | Gavin Graham | (A Top Pick Nov 19/07. Up 38%.) A gas play. If you have done really well in this area, you might be wise to take some profits but still keep some of this in your portfolio. Not a Buy at this time. | 2008-05-20 | |
| BUY | 101.860 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Had a tough time in not picking this as one of his Top Picks. Have the Horizon oil sands project coming on in the 3rd quarter of this year and should be 110,000 barrels a day growing to 250,000 and up to 500,000. Very profitable at current oil prices. One of the best management teams. | 2008-05-16 | |
| HOLD | 96.660 | Norman Levine | Into natural gas and the oil sands. Expect CEO will get a phone call as to whether they will split similar to Encana’s (ECA-T) announcement. Likes the outlook for natural gas. Stock price has risen pretty quickly so watch for a pullback before Buying. | 2008-05-12 | |
| TOP PICK | 84.740 | Dennis Dasilva | Horizon, their oil sands project comes on this year. Should be full steam by mid-2009. Significantly undervalued by the market. | 2008-05-01 | |
| BUY | 83.250 | David Cockfield | Has been looking at this one recently. Trading at a big discount to its peers. Had a big bounce, but it is still cheaper than a number of the other majors. Looking for a big increase in production particularly as you get closer to 2010. | 2008-04-24 | |
| BUY | 83.250 | Paul Harris, CFA | Likes this one. Should continue to do well. One of the best run companies in the oil/gas sector. Has the ability to grow its reserves and production. Good long-term hold. | 2008-04-24 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 87.360 | Alex Ruus | Really likes this company. There could be a slight pullback on oil as we are in the shoulder season. Given his bullish long-term view, this is a great long-term hold. You can add to it on weakness. | 2008-04-22 | |
| BUY | 78.390 | Bruce Campbell | Roughly 15%/20% higher in a year. The Horizons oil sands project has taken a long time, but that production is finally coming on stream. The recognition when it comes on and the bump in cash flow, this will do very well. | 2008-04-11 | |
| HOLD | 79.820 | Norman Levine | Natural gas is selling at the highest price it has for quite some time. Looks like it wants to go higher. Probably has lots of room to go on the upside. | 2008-04-10 | |
| WEAK BUY | 70.270 | David Burrows | A good long term hold, there may be better ones in the group. You’ll get the right kind of exposure with this. | 2008-03-31 | |
| BUY | 70.540 | Lyle Stein | Believe in the gas market, the place to be. | 2008-03-28 | |
| BUY | 73.820 | Derek Webb, CFA | Stock market is pricing oil companies as if oil is $60. So they are all cheap. This one is both gas and oil. Gas has finally recovered in the last few months. | 2008-03-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 73.370 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Likes the Horizon project that is coming on in the latter half of this year. A little more expensive and delayed from what the expectations where but that's not unusual for Fort McMurray. Cash flow will be significant at well over 100,000 barrels a day. 45% natural gas. Good management. (Would treat the Top Picks as a Watch rather than a Buy.) | 2008-03-07 | |
| BUY | 73.370 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | (Market Call Minute.) Oil/natural gas exposure in North America. | 2008-03-07 | |
| BUY | 76.450 | John Stephenson | 70% of its production comes from the province of Alberta so it doesn't have a lot of diversity and is subject to the royalty rates. That has affected gas very negatively. However, it has some visibility with the Horizon oil sands project, which looks like it is finally going to come. | 2008-03-05 | |
| BUY | 75.200 | Peter Brieger | Over the next several years, it will produce over $27 billion in cash, which will allow them to pay off most of their debt. | 2008-02-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 71.560 | Dennis Dasilva | (A Top Pick Apr 5/07. Up 5%.) Their horizon play is undervalued. Taking out the horizon, they trade at 4.5X cash flow compared to their peers of 6.5. Still a Buy. | 2008-02-25 | |
| BUY | 63.590 | Laura Wallace | Oil/gas companies have taken quite a haircut because of Alberta's royalty regime. She thinks there will be a softening on this. Has a big capital expenditure program ahead of it. Some cost concerns. Very well managed. If you have no oil/gas this would be one to own. | 2008-01-30 | |
| HOLD | 65.810 | David Burrows | Oil stocks have been consolidating for about 18 months. Prices have remained pretty high and the companies have been making a lot of money. There is volatility in this sector, but energy looks more attractive than many others. There is significant support between $63 and $65 but if it fell below $63, he would Sell. Use a stop/loss. | 2008-01-18 | |
| TOP PICK | 70.600 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | A Top Pick about a year ago and is up 30%. Still thinks it has legs. Developing the Horizon oil sands project, which is expected to come on in the 3rd quarter and should generate a lot of cash flow. About 45% natural gas so will get a kick from any increase in gas prices. Great management. | 2008-01-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 72.860 | Peter Brieger | Would probably be his top pick in the senior Canadian oil picture. Estimates are for $80-$83 oil in 08 and 09. On this basis, you could see a pullback on stocks such as this, particularly as they have flat production and flat cash flow in 08 over 07. $60-$65 would be his Buy target. | 2008-01-11 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 72.650 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Feb 7/07. Up 21%.) Recently sold his holdings at a higher amount. Would go back in at around $60. | 2007-12-28 | |
| HOLD | 70.290 | Joseph Schachter | Horizon, a major new tar sands project, is coming on in 2008. Company has a massive land spread. Have global operations. A great story. | 2007-12-19 | |
| BUY | 70.440 | Alex Ruus | One of the few large-cap global companies where you can see a growth path that is spelled out over the next 5 years. You have very little concern that they are not going to be able to deliver. With the Alberta royalty review having come in, they are cutting back their expenditures in Alberta by a large amount. This pullback is a buying opportunity. Great oil sands exposure, exposure in the North Sea and offshore West Africa. | 2007-12-13 | |
| Comment | 65.060 | Norman Levine | Has been acting very poorly in the short-term. Strong Cdn$ has hurt them in spite of stronger oil prices. Also big in natural gas. Costs overruns in the oil sands have hurt them as well. If a short-term investor, there could be further weakness but for long-term investors it is a great company and they have great assets. | 2007-12-03 | |
| HOLD | 64.920 | Ross Healey | Slipping because of 1) drop in the price of oil and 2) their plan on substantially slowing down their oil sands expansion plans because of the staggering costs. FMV is triple the current price but short-term, the price will remain weak. | 2007-11-30 | |
| BUY | 65.610 | Michael Smedley | (Market Call Minute.) | 2007-11-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 73.000 | Brian Acker, CA | (Caller) Horizon project is 85% complete and are on target for the 3rd quarter of 2008 for another 100,000 BOEs. Have an extensive hedging program towards natural gas prices. (Brian) Hasn’t owned it for quite some time because it is either trading at or below his model price which is currently $67.23. A negative 8%. | 2007-11-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 70.500 | Gavin Graham | Has done better than straight exploration/production companies. A big gas play. Really well run, and widely diversified. | 2007-11-19 | |
| HOLD | 71.110 | Joseph Schachter | Loves this one. Management owns a lot of shares themselves. Currently building the Horizon oil project. Provincial tax changes are putting pressure on them. Has a great platform between offshore Africa, North Sea and Canada. Price could drop to the mid-$60's if the market weakness continues. | 2007-11-15 | |
| TOP PICK | 78.400 | Don Lato | Best managed oil/gas in Canada. Has a good mix geographically and product. Its oil sands project Horizon comes on stream in the 3rd quarter of 08. Market is not giving it full value for this. | 2007-11-08 | |
| BUY | 75.920 | Alex Ruus | Really likes this one. | 2007-11-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 75.100 | Dennis Dasilva | Still likes it. A core holding. Nothing has changed. Their horizon project coming on in the Mid next year. Natural gas inventory, which will pay off when the prices come around. | 2007-10-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 75.100 | Dennis Dasilva | Then $65.34
A core holding.
Still likes the stock. | 2007-10-30 | |
| BUY | 75.100 | Gavin Graham | He still likes it. It is gas play and it has done well. They are expanding outside of Alberta. One of the better plays. | 2007-10-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 77.020 | Stephen Carlin | Not expecting the multiple cost overruns that we’ve seen in some of the other oil-sands projects. Has a little bit of upside potential | 2007-10-25 | |
| VAGUE | 73.800 | Norman Levine | They do most of their business in Alberta. They are a major gas producer and building in the oil sands. May be at the bottom and probably will see some upside. | 2007-10-23 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 75.200 | Paul Harris, CFA | One of the best run companies in Canada. Have a great oil sands project that has been on budget and on time. Very good management. There will be some volatility. You could buy half your position and the rest if it falls. | 2007-09-27 | |
| TOP PICK | 74.290 | John Stephenson | Has great visible growth, basically through Horizon. They will add another 100,000 barrels to that in the next year or so. Possibly the most oily weighted name. | 2007-09-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 75.200 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Oct 16/06. Up 34.3%.) Still likes. | 2007-09-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 75.200 | Brian Acker, CA | Might come back. A little too expensive currently? | 2007-09-20 | |
| BUY | 79.750 | David Burrows | Wish he owned it. Best performing of senior oil stocks in the market this year. Expect this to perform well. A name comfortable buying. | 2007-09-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 77.340 | Peter Brieger | Past top pick (October 16, 2006) Up 38%. Estimated cash flow is $11. Costs rising across the board, have done well. | 2007-09-13 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 73.760 | Alex Ruus | One of these great Canadian oil/gas companies. Great exposure to oil sands. Also production in the North Sea and West Africa. Had a little bit of a run, so wait for a pullback. | 2007-09-04 | |
| BUY | 71.060 | Norman Levine | About 40% exposure to natural gas. In the process of building the Horizon oil sands project giving it good potential but currently high costs and environmental woes. Attractive here. | 2007-08-29 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 68.450 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Oct 16/06. Up 23.3%.) Company is calling for $4 in cash flow from its Horizon oil sands project. With a 10 to 12 price to cash flow ratio on the $4, it would tack on $40-$50 onto their price. Good upside. | 2007-08-28 | |
| HOLD | 69.810 | John O'Connell, CFA | Has outperformed its peers. Trading at around 6X cash flow, which is pretty reasonable. Have some great properties. Rapidly growing production profile. | 2007-08-27 | |
| HOLD | 71.500 | Michael Sprung | Excited about the outlook for natural gas. Getting close to where he would consider it a good entry point. Superb company with superb landholdings. Fairly good production profile. Have been adept at replacing reserves. | 2007-08-10 | |
| BUY | 70.840 | Peter Brieger | Likes the potential oil sands exposure and the multiple the market should put on the oil sands earnings. | 2007-08-03 | |
| Comment | 73.000 | Laura Wallace | Just announced earnings, which looked pretty good. Exposed to cost overruns that are occurring in the oil sands. Good quality company. Will probably not complete the Horizon project until the fall of 08. For an oil sands play, she prefers Suncor (SU-T). | 2007-08-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 71.100 | Veronika Hirsch | Has had a phenomenal run. Likes their connection with the oil sands. We are now going into a seasonally weak period. Wouldn't get into it right now. | 2007-08-01 | |
| Comment | 73.210 | John O'Connell, CFA | A tremendous growth company. World-class assets. Hasn't dropped off as much as others, so would prefer a Petro-Can (PCA-T) or Imperial Oil (IMO-T) that has more of a diversified integrated feel to it. | 2007-07-31 | |
| BUY | 69.200 | Paul Harris, CFA | Likes it because their oil sands project is on budget. It's a commodity, he's expecting that the oil will remain high, natural gas is a bit more uncertain. | 2007-06-28 | |
| BUY | 70.940 | David Burrows | Thinks we are now into a pretty significant leg in the energy story and this is a great way to play. | 2007-06-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 73.890 | Alan Blake | Trading at a slight premium to it's peers, but has significant oil sands exposure, that isn't being valued in the price.
| 2007-06-14 | |
| WATCH | 70.680 | Ron Meisels | Has done very well. With the other energy stocks, went into a sleep mode. Then did an inverse head and shoulder pattern which is a very good sign.
Wait for the breakout to buy. When it happens it will go higher. | 2007-06-13 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 70.250 | Laura Wallace | A great company that they've watched very closely. They don't own but could. There may be a better entry point over the summer, but long term it's fine.
It could be a takeover candidate, but it's unlikely.
| 2007-06-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 73.010 | Bruce Campbell | June last year, then $50.69.
Their oil sands project is coming on next year, so the stock is still going to climb, but not to the same extent that it was.
If you have it hold it.
| 2007-06-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 72.100 | Peter Brieger | Haven't bought recently, but probably should have. | 2007-06-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 71.090 | Bill Harris | Has done quite well recently.
Has wti which nobody has, everybody sell a blend of the heaver stuff.
The differential has shrunk, but the price that CNQ gets paid has gone up which is very exciting for them. (I didn't understand it ether).
They are going to sell it to the US refiners with a lower differential. | 2007-05-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 70.180 | Dennis Dasilva | (A Top Pick Apr 5/7. Up 6%.) has moved in sympathy with the general energy market. Came out with an update on their Horizon project. They have great natural gas resource. | 2007-05-17 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 69.150 | Jennifer Stevenson | Getting to all-time highs. Conventional production kicks off about $6.5 billion of cash flow. Only need a half of this to continue funding conventional production. The other half is for Horizon, which will have production up in the 3rd quarter of 2008. | 2007-05-15 | |
| BUY | 69.150 | Brendan Kyne | Fits into the category of a seasonal oil/gas play. Expects a relative out-performance curve in the next little while. This can include Nexen NXY-T) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) and Talisman (TLM-T). This one has risen because they have some oil sands assets. | 2007-05-10 | |
| BUY | 69.940 | Bruce Campbell | Just reported and cash flow numbers was above expectation. Had slight cost overruns on the Horizon oil sands project, which starts producing mid-2008. | 2007-05-09 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 67.350 | Peter Brieger | Still like it.
Buy for new accounts.
Are good at cost containment.
| 2007-05-02 | |
| HOLD | 66.140 | John Stephenson | Has some great visibility, particularly in 08 with Horizon. It's in development, but further along than some of the others. You are not getting a screaming discount. | 2007-04-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 66.750 | Peter Brieger | A Top Pick Sept 26/06. Up 39%.) One of his favourite stocks in the oil patch. Still a Buy. | 2007-04-18 | |
| BUY | 67.270 | Chyanne Fickes | Their Horizon project in the oil sands is a model of how you should run an oil sands project. Have kept the costs down. Growing their gas assets quite nicely. Very well run. | 2007-04-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 68.250 | Bill Harris | Have stated they will not have to build an upgrader. This is a huge expense savings. | 2007-04-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 66.700 | Paul Harris, CFA | Really likes the oil/gas industry right now. Well-run. Oil sands project is coming in on time and under budget. Not expensive. | 2007-04-12 | |
| TOP PICK | 65.340 | Dennis Dasilva | Well diversified between natural gas and oil. The big driver is there oil sands project, Horizon, coming on in the late 2008. This will be a cash flow generating machine. They are well positioned on the natural gas side. | 2007-04-05 | |
| BUY | 66.090 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Trading at 4.7 X 2008 numbers. Good production growth. 1/3 gas, 1/3 light oil and 1/3 heavy oil. Well-run. | 2007-04-04 | |
| BUY | 66.090 | Peter Brieger | 3 favourite gas stocks are CNQ (CNQ-T), Rider Resources (RRZ-T) and Vero (VRO-T). This one is the cheapest. Exposure to the oil sands is not being paid for. Current price to cash flow ratio is around 5. | 2007-04-04 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 64.890 | Bruce Campbell | Would prefer it in the low $60's. | 2007-04-02 | |
| TOP PICK | 60.710 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Great company and very well managed. Good assets. Have a play called Pelican Lake and using a special technique to pull the heavier oil. Also have Horizon project where costs have been kept reasonable. Relatively undervalued. | 2007-02-16 | |
| BUY | 59.840 | Robert Floyd | Sees higher highs in spite of the oil prices. | 2007-02-13 | |
| BUY | 58.560 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Very good company. When looking at oil companies, look for ones with long reserves and a safe country. Be prepared to hold for 3 to 5 years. It will stay at least where it is and probably will move up somewhat. | 2007-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.020 | Peter Gibson | If you're looking for a long-term “ Buy and Hold”, you have to be very careful right now. Across the board, they have declining profitability. | 2007-01-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 54.640 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Very good management team. Represents good value. They have the Horizons oil sands project that he thinks is very exciting and is well along. On the negative side, he is expecting the company to announce costs have gone up. 1/3 heavy oil, 1/3 natural gas and 1/3 light oil, which is a good commodity diversification. Undervalued. | 2007-01-16 | |
| WAIT | 56.300 | Peter Brieger | Been in the doghouse because of its oil sands project Horizon. Have done a marvellous job in controlling costs. Once the price of oil/gas stabilize, he will be buying more. | 2007-01-15 | |
| BUY | 53.350 | David Baskin | If you are a long-term holder, this is a good time to buy. Down 20% from its high. Prefers Talisman (TLM-T), Petro Canada (PCA-T) and Encana (ECA-T) better. | 2007-01-10 | |
| BUY | 54.910 | John Stephenson | You want to be in an oil sands, especially in operating projects such as Western Oil Sands (WTO-T), Suncor (SU-T) or CNQ (CNQ-T). There are a lot that profess to have great potential, but are yet to be proven. | 2007-01-05 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 54.380 | Alex Ruus | One of his favourite global, large-cap oil/gas stocks. Phenomenally run. Excellent management. If you don't own and oil/gas stock, take a position and gradually add to it on weakness. | 2007-01-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 62.150 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Dec 28/05. Up %.) Continuing to Buy for new accounts. Estimated cash flow per share for 07 is $11.50. | 2006-12-29 | |
| BUY | 60.850 | David Cockfield | Have gone through the wringer a bit and would be a buy at this price Likes the oils in general. | 2006-12-27 | |
| BUY | 59.680 | Brian Acker, CA | The model price is $68.34, a 16% positive differential. | 2006-12-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 60.380 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | Good long-term chart, but earlier this year it topped and is now wallowing. If you have held it for the long-term, look for your exit point now. For a short-term trader, it has hit a resistant point 3 times and it’s time to sell. | 2006-12-15 | |
| BUY | 61.020 | Paul Harris, CFA | Oil sands play. Understand the business and they’re smart operators. | 2006-12-12 | |
| BUY | 61.810 | Michael Sprung | One of the pre-eminent oil/gas producers. A lot of natural gas. Good long-term hold. | 2006-12-08 | |
| BUY | 62.190 | Gavin Graham | The gassiest of the majors and has been suffering because of the weak price in gas. If we get a normal winter, the gas surplus will be removed fairly rapidly. Low multiple at 5 X cash flow. Cheap. | 2006-12-07 | |
| BUY | 62.680 | Ross Healey | Tremendous exposure to the oil sands which they are developing steadily, so the long-term outlook for reserves is excellent. In the short term, their Fair Market Value is very high relative to the current price. | 2006-12-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 60.780 | Peter Brieger | (A Top Pick Sept 26/06. Up 18.9%.) Looking out 3 years, there is probably $20-$30 Oil Sands production that is not reflected in the price. Also have a holding in the horizon project. | 2006-11-29 | |
| BUY | 59.200 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Developing the Horizon oil sands project with engineering. One of the few companies that are bringing things in on time and on budget. Diverse with one 1/3 gas, 1/3 heavy oil and 1/3 light oil. Trading at a very reasonable multiple. | 2006-11-28 | |
| WATCH | 58.230 | Alex Ruus | Probably one of the best run big oil/gas companies in the world. Have enough properties that they can continue to grow over the next 10 years. In the short term, he is cautious on oil, but the medium to long term is tremendously bullish. | 2006-11-22 | |
Experts that have talked about Canadian Natural Rsrcs
