STOCKCHASE

Reporting good numbers. Seem to be in a turnaround mode. Management has done a great job. What is killing them is the price of natural gas. Currently at 10 year lows. He is happy holding it at this level.

2012-01-17

HOLD

4.970

Eric Nuttall

Considering selling and going into something riskier where there would be a takeover. Good idea? Not cheap enough for him to buy but not expensive enough for him to sell. Have had good results in both the Cardium and Nikinason (?).

2011-11-30

BUY

4.500

James Hodgins

A producer and developer in the Cardium. Done very well and think it's going to be a takeout candidate.

2011-11-24

BUY

4.780

Very well run. About 60% gas weighted. Have been able to grow to about 13,000 barrels a day now and are expected to exit at 15,000 a day. One of the few companies that have made or exceeded their targets in the past. Reasonably valued at just under 5X EBITDA.

2011-11-08

HOLD

3.200

Quite content to hold this one. Seem to be moving in the right direction. Management that came in a few years ago seems to know what they are doing. A nice play on the natural gas sector. At some point, natural gas will move up.

2011-10-04

TOP PICK

5.100

Junior producer in western Canada. About 60% gas and 40% oil and are increasing their oil weight. Increased guidance from 13,000 to 15,000 a day. Good management. High growth company.

2011-05-09

BUY

5.100

Producing pretty good results so will torque to $5.50 back to $6 or in that range. Has some nice Cardium land. Possible takeover candidate.

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

5.300

Ben Stadelmann

(Top Pick Mar 3/10, Up 36.69%) It’s a broken trust. More weighted to oil than natural gas. When it was a trust, it was starved for capital, but that isn’t the case any more.

2011-03-16

PAST TOP PICK

5.520

(A Top Pick Feb 8.10. Up 27.78%.) Still likes.

2011-02-09

TOP PICK

3.920

Don Short

Formerly True Energy Income Trust. Had a management change, paid down debt and refocused the assets. Main reason to own this one is their enviable land position in the Pembina/Cardium. Production has grown from 5600 barrels a day (2009) to 10,000 currently in still showing great momentum on the operational side.

2010-09-22

BUY

3.790

Recently bought some of this. Another way to play the Cardium. Have amassed a fairly large section to drill. Will probably be a takeover target in 3-4 years.

2010-09-13

BUY

3.040

Eric Nuttall

(Market Call Minute) Deep value player. Bombed out cheap natural gas stock with a really good balance sheet.

2010-06-10

SPECULATIVE BUY

3.110

Has a lot of production growth ahead of it. Has done a pretty good job of hedging. A little bit gas weighted. Expect natural gas prices will remain modest for the next little while. Good name to hold.

2010-05-28

TOP PICK

3.790

Ben Stadelmann

Put it into his new portfolio. Fascinating company. At the epicenter to those companies moving from income trust to regular corporation. It was a spectacularly unsuccessful business trust. It proved the point that the model was a poor fit with exploration and development of oil and gas because you have to put money into capital expenditure and not into distributions.

2010-03-03

BUY

4.520

Jennifer Stevenson

Reincarnation of what was the true energy trust. Stock is a little bit expensive, but it’s hard to find a pier that isn’t. Management has really bought in and had a good run and it’s going to continue.

2010-02-16

TOP PICK

4.140

Sold a lot of assets and issued some convertible debentures so they now have about $1 cash per share. In one of the hottest plays, the Cardium. Very reasonably priced.

2010-02-08

BUY

4.000

Peter Hodson

New management team got the company involved in some of the hot areas in western Canada. Exceeded production guidance and upped it. There has been a takeover in the space that makes them look very cheap on a relative basis. Doing everything right.

2010-02-04

HOLD

0.880

(Market Call Minute) Comfortable holding it – wouldn’t buy or sell.

2009-05-01

DON'T BUY

0.530

Oil/natural gas. Halted distributions and cut back on exploration. Has a lot of debt. Very iffy and could go under.

2009-03-12

SELL

0.950

Dean Orrico

(Market Call Minute.) Not one of his favourites. Too small and has a short reserve life.

2009-02-06

HOLD

5.520

Paying about $.04 a month in distributions, which seems reasonable. Were looking to sell some of their Saskatchewan fields and unfortunately only sold one. Longer-term, natural gas will go up.

2008-09-15

DON'T BUY

4.090

Because of management and its slate of properties, there are other trusts that he would rather own. Institutional market does not like it.

2008-07-18

BUY

4.290

Not a typical income investment as it is more speculative than others. At a very interesting level. Should be able to see significant capital gains. 11.5% distribution is safe and they have a very low payout ratio.

2008-04-21

BUY

3.550

It’s a good buy. Distribution is about 14%. Happy sticking with it. Excellent chance for capital appreciation.

2008-03-25

HOLD

3.200

Robert Floyd

The numbers have been ok, at this price hold on.

2008-03-20

Comment

3.020

Have a big debt load they have to deal with. They are looking to sell off their Saskatchewan properties. Yield is great at $0.04 a month. Thinks they can sustain their yield. Likes it going forward, but there are definite dangers with this company. Management is a question mark.

2008-01-25

DON'T BUY

3.430

Sold some assets to bail out of its financial picture. Hasn't been able to get comfortable with the assets and management. Decline rates have been fairly high.

2008-01-15

TOP PICK

2.900

Recently cut distributions by half but now at a point where they might be able to stabilize them. If gas prices stay at current levels, distributions should be safe. New CEO. Still some danger in that they have more debt than revenues.

2007-12-24

HOLD

5.980

Believes the company is going to increase production in their heavy oil assets next year. Likes management. If gas prices go back up, they will have materially higher cash flows. Paying down debt. Selling off weaker assets.

2007-07-20

DON'T BUY

6.020

Kevin Hall BComm, CFA

Probably at the lower end of quality in the oil/gas trust sector. There are a lot of better names out there.

2007-07-11

DON'T BUY

6.250

Dean Orrico

One of the lower quality trusts. Post Halloween tried to convert back into a corporation, but because of a nasty proxy battle, they were forced to remain as a trust and continue to pay out the high yield. Stems from disappointment of investors, in the management teams.

2007-06-14

BUY

6.690

Robert Floyd

Had some issues and feels it was oversold. Should come back.

2007-04-19

SELL

5.810

Not a very good corporation and a poor trust. Poor quality management.

2007-03-27

Comment

5.650

Changed back from a trust to a corporation and changed their distribution to a much smaller dividend. Feels they did this to pay down debt.

2007-02-16

WAIT

5.710

Brendan Kyne

Will likely be a significant move of trusts de-trusting in the near future. A lot of trust funds are selling, as they can't own a non-trust because of their mandate. This trend will continue and at some time will allow for a great entry point.

2007-01-29

DON'T BUY

6.030

Converting back to a corporation, so are no longer paying out 100% of their cash flow as distribution. Debt will be reduced with this. Had a “growth by exploration” mind set, so should never have been a trust.

2007-01-22

WATCH

5.860

Michael Decter

This one is a “ wait and see” situation.

2007-01-18

DON'T BUY

5.730

Just announced that they were going to revert back to a corporation. He feels this was their way of reducing their distributions. Have set up a dividend at a much lower rate and will use excess cash flow to pay down debt. Company suffered from high decline rates with a little too much debt.

2007-01-16

DON'T BUY

6.130

Paul Harris, CFA

This industry has a depleting asset. This company is hard-pressed to get capital to grow so decided to go as a corporation. There are better companies.

2007-01-15

Comment

8.170

Norman Levine

Pure natural gas. Not as optimistic as it depends on the vagaries of the weather.

2006-12-05

DON'T BUY

8.490

Robert Floyd

Pay out a fair amount of their cash flow, which hasn’t been terribly strong. Cut their distributions.

2006-12-01

SELL

8.190

John O'Connell, CFA

Oil/gas income trusts in Canada are going to have a really tough time. The government’s proposed changes will make their lives very difficult. Distributions are not sustainable. The game is over for them.

2006-11-27

SHORT

8.080

If you own sell. If you want a short position, this would be one.

2006-11-16

SELL

11.410

Robert Toole

Has a very high payout relative to their cash distribution. Managed that to some extent by having an extensive DRIP program where investors take units as opposed to cash. This dilutes the overall unitholder base. Trades just under 19% yield.

2006-10-27

DON'T BUY

11.700

Pays almost 23% distribution, which is a red flag. Very gas weighted, Higher risk/higher reward.

2006-10-20

DON'T BUY

14.610

Not one of his favourites. Hasn't performed well. Missed production targets. Might buy back in given the opportunity.

2006-08-23

BUY

14.290

David Chapman

Prefers the energy trusts right now compared to the actual energy stocks. It may be bottoming out, but there's nothing convincing on the chart to confirm that. If the price didn't grow but his distributions continued, he would be happy.

2006-08-04

DON'T BUY

14.200

Despite having a payout ratio in excess of 100%, they have been quite resilient in not cutting distributions. Now that they have their acquisition of the way, he would expect they should do a cut. This is his least favourite oil/gas trust. Has serious issues.

2006-07-21

DON'T BUY

13.990

Bill Carrigan

Long-term church shows a trading pattern that broke down early this year. You don't want to be in stocks that do this.

2006-07-17

TOP SHORT

14.150

Good management team and have some quality assets. Natural gas declined dramatically and a lot of companies tweaked their capital structures and distribution rates to reflect a much higher gas price. Has been caught off guard. They are also in an acquisition using their shares.

2006-05-26

HOLD

15.640

Yields 18.4% and has a real high payout ratio. The word on the street, for some time, that they are going to have to cut distributions. If you want to be speculative, you could continue holding it, but wouldn't buy it.

2006-05-04

SELL

17.470

Patrick Kim

This is a name that would appeal to people who have a lot of confidence that gas prices will shoot up. 16/17% yield. Would sell this and move into something like Ketch (KER.UN-T)

2006-04-21

SELL

15.600

Was short this stock, covered the short and it has since rallied. There is another leg down. Have had some operational problems and there is a chance of gas weakening again. You may be able to get it at $14.

2006-04-07

DON'T BUY

15.700

Has a high debt level and was nearing some of its covenants. A gassy trust. Reserve life index is around 10 years. Feels they are spending too much money on exploration. Feels they are spending too much money on exploration.

2006-03-24

Comment

14.090

Bruce Campbell

It is a "gassy trust", high % of its cash flow being paid out. Market is telling you that they are going to cut it. Buying depends on your outlook for gas prices. If you think that gas will be okay, stronger in the fall, it is probably a good entry point. If they cut it, it will go lower and it would be a better time to buy.

2006-03-06

VAGUE

14.600

Sandy McIntyre

True Energy Trust released its year end reserves about a week ago. Nobody really knows what is happening 1000-2000 metres below the ground. Assumptions are basd on production rates, decline rates and by production economics. True had quite a large revision and it was negative to its reserves. It has disappointed on production.

2006-03-04

VAGUE

16.300

Missing a production forcast. A high yield. It's shooting up a warning sign.

2006-02-22

DON'T BUY

17.490

Sparked a little bit of controversy as someone commented on a possible distribution cut. Their payout ratio is about 90% which is high.

2006-02-10

BUY

19.190

Reasonable upside in it. 15 to 20% over the next 12 months. Distribution is sustainable. Good one to hold.

2006-02-03

DON'T BUY

20.700

Sold his position last week. Analysts are worried about the continual cut back in estimated production by a number of trusts.

2006-01-30

WATCH

20.750

Relatively new. Hasn't seen any numbers on their payout ratio yet. A great yield. Large enough trust that it has a reasonable distribution of assets. A “wait and see” trust.

2006-01-23

BUY

20.750

Wilf Gobert

The high yield does not indicate a risk. This was a recent conversion to a trust and it takes time for the sellers of the old stock and the buyers of the new trust to bring the price to its proper level.

2006-01-23

HOLD

5.520

An interesting story. Not his favourite. Has a $22/23 price started on it at which point he would probably sell it.

2006-01-16

BUY

20.950

Has a target of $24 at which time it will yield 12%. A gas play. Likes it very much.

2005-12-28

BUY

21.850

Yield is in excess of 14%. Production has gone from 4,000 BOE’s a day to about 13,000/14,000 but not many analysts covering it. Hoping that this will pick up.

2005-12-15

WATCH

19.180

Garth Jestley

Relatively small. Will want to see how it performs over time. This was a reverse takeover of TKE Energy so 40% of the assets are new to the management. There are integration risks. About 10% of their operation is exploration drilling which he doesn't think is appropriate.

2005-12-02

HOLD

18.990

Fairly valued at this level.

2005-12-01

HOLD

18.410

Converted to a trust. Thinks manageemnt will be very proactive to grow the trust. One of the better teams out there.

2005-11-22

BUY

5.520

Very gas oriented. About a 15% yield. The biggest knock against it is that it doesn't have any sponsorship on the street, but now that it is triple in size, it wilol start to be followed.

2005-11-15

BUY

5.520

Amalgamated with Tusk Energy (TSK-T) and created an exploreco, Vero (VRO-T). The metrics for the combination look pretty good. Has a large land base, a decent reserve life index of about 8.4 and fairly low debt levels.

2005-11-07

BUY

5.450

True Energy (TUI-T) and TKE Energy (TKE.UN-T) are merging and he likes the deal. TKE by itself is about a 4,000 equivalent per day and this will go to about 14,000.

2005-10-18

BUY

5.750

Turning into a trust. A more gassier company. Not a bad investment as a trust and spin out company.

2005-10-12

BUY

5.950

TKE Energy Trust (TKE.UN-T) and True Energy (TUI-T) are entering into a merger. Likes this company and would buy the new exploreco that will be spun out.

2005-10-04

BUY

5.800

Expects the price will go up to $6.75 and between now and Nov 1st it's not a bad rate of return. Getting access to the new exploreco will be valuable.

2005-09-26

DON'T BUY

6.080

Bill Harris, CFA

Combining with TKE (TKE.UN-T) to become a trust. The trust merger price has been fully discounted. Will be a good quality little trust. Doesn't expect anything spectacular from it. The spinout of the exploreco should be interesting.

2005-09-13

BUY on WEAKNESS

6.180

Bruce Campbell

A nice, well managed, growing, gas oriented junior that's in the middle of doing a merger to turn itself into a trust. You'll have a trust and an exloreco. The latter will be another junior and it looks quite interesting. The value of the pieces might be $7 or so. If you're not interested in the trust, wait for the split and buy the exploreco.

2005-09-12

HOLD

6.020

Recently trusted and spun off an exploreco. Big fans for a long time. Likes the team.

2005-09-02

BUY

5.940

Has filed a plan of arrangement to convert to an energy trust and is well positioned to be a trust. Going to have a land base of 350,000 net acres. Reserve life of about 8.1 years. Has available cash to re-invest in its development as well as to acquire other fields or even other companies.

2005-09-01

HOLD

5.940

Has just declared itself a trust. Would hold and just see where the exploreco and the trust goes. You'll get a little upside from here. Not a bad company.

2005-09-01

BUY

4.830

Has been gathering momentum after a period of relatively slow growth.

2005-08-18

TOP PICK

4.840

Still has a lot of legs. Exited Q2 at 9,000 BOE's a day. Will be reporting their Q2 results next week and thinks the cash flows will be very strong because of the big increase in production. By the end of the year if they do 12,000 BOE's a day they will be doing $1.20 in cash flow. Deserves a 6 or 7 multiple. Very cheap.

2005-08-02

BUY

4.650

Had a big run, fell back, consolidated and then started to run again. Made a major acquisition in January, brought their production up smartly and they seem to be absorbing that. Touted as a potential income trust and there is some justification for that. Good value here.

2005-07-28

BUY

4.340

A good solid one. Got ahead of itself so has pulled back. Now in a buying range.

2005-07-22

BUY

4.280

Wilf Gobert

Doing very well. Has a good track record. There aren't many natural gas companies you can invest in. Good value in its peer group.

2005-07-07

BUY

4.130

A resource play with a little more diversity with 70% gas, 20% heavy oil and 10% light oil. Growing its production substantially. Clean balance sheet.

2005-06-30

DON'T BUY

4.460

Fred Sturm

Expecting a moderation in energy prices, so either have a long term view or be very careful in the short term. Small caps have been trading at trust-like valuations. Have been bid up too high. Feels seniors are better value.

2005-06-22

BUY

4.380

Strong production growth. Good balance sheet. Growing very quickly.

2005-06-21

PAST TOP PICK

4.420

(A Top Pick Mar 23/05. Down 6%.) If it backed off any more it would be a table pounding buy. They will be doing 12,000 + BOE's by the end of the year and doing north of $1 in cash flow. Loves the story.

2005-06-20

BUY

4.550

It has really only 2 core areas which has always concerned him. Have been expanding and long term looks like it could end up being an income trust. A conservative way to play a senior junior.

2005-06-15

BUY

4.410

Thinks they will do 12,000 + BOE's a day and annualizing cash flow of over $1.

2005-06-10

BUY

4.070

Like a lot of the juniors, it got really whacked. Good company. He likes it. Has a lot of gas. An excellent find/development costs. Once they get their production up to around 10,000 BOE's, a perfect candidate for an income trust. They've got reasonably long lived resources. Reasonably priced.

2005-05-19

HOLD

4.150

Price is quite reasonable. They have lots of momentum. Have added to their asset base. Will probably become a trust.

2005-05-12

BUY

4.460

Bought out Meridian and now doing over 9,000 BOE's a day and sees them exiting over 12,000. Very good growth rate. Because they have good growth, hopes that they don't go the trust route.

2005-05-06

BUY

4.020

Robert Lyon

12 months, out this stock will be a lot higher, but there will be choppiness in the short term.

2005-05-04

PAST TOP PICK

3.860

Mark Jackson, CFA

(Was a Top Pick Dec 7/04. Up 20%.) Did a merger with Meridian Energy which made people think they were going to trust. This is why the valuation kicked up through $5. At this level, the stock is attractive. Could be a 10,000 barrels a day company in a year. 70% of their production is natural gas, which they like.

2005-04-13

BUY

4.330

Peter Hodson

Good company. The merger with Meridian looks good. A pre-trust acquisition so thinks it will trust within the year. Well managed. At these levels a good one year hold.

2005-04-07

TOP PICK

4.530

In his 3 Top Picks, he is recommending that buyers take advantage during weakness in the next 2/3 months. Under $4 it is a fabulous BUY. With acquisition of Meridian Energy (MDE-X) it is now quite a lot larger platform. Now 9200 BOE's a day and thinks they will exit the year with 12,000.

2005-03-31

BUY

4.300

A small cap name, so has a lot of volatility. On a forward looking cash flow multiple, it's in the 6.3 X range versus it's peers at 8.4. Production is coming on very, very strong. Has been caught in a sell-off, but investors could safely enter here and do fairly well in 6/12 months.

2005-03-30

BUY

4.300

Has performed really well. Has been able to grow their production per share. Has room to grow.

2005-03-30

TOP PICK

4.750