| BUY on WEAKNESS | 31.520 | David Cockfield | He is picking away at trusts he likes and tries to Buy on weakness. Buying for yield. Thinks oil and gas will stabilize. | 2008-08-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.470 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | Could double reserves. Stock price showing some of this potential. Getting a little expensive. | 2008-06-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 31.950 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Primarily heavy oil. 40,000 barrels a day. Increased dividend from $.20 to $.25 a month. Good model for other royalty trust. Because cash flows have increased so much they will be able to pay the taxes, capital expenditures and continue to pay out distributions. | 2008-06-09 | |
| WAIT | 29.300 | Ken McCord | Fundamentally what is backing up energy stories is still very much intact. A big believer in energy. In the next week or two, there could be a little pullback, which will give you great entry points. | 2008-05-23 | |
| BUY | 29.040 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Thinks it will benefit a lot from the very small differentials in heavy oil. Relatively low debt. | 2008-05-16 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 28.160 | Michael Simpson, CFA | More exposed to heavy oil. Recent results were very strong. About a 48% payout ratio. Sees a dramatic narrowing of the spreads between heavy and light oil. Hedged some of this with a refinery in the US but a well manage company. Have a lot of land for drilling. At these levels it's a Hold. | 2008-05-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 27.690 | Jennifer Stevenson | Good at keeping production flat with minimal capital spending. Production 40,000 barrels a day, predominantly oil, will cash flow about $1 billion and only need $150 million to keep production flat. Current distributions of about $225 million. More efficient for a trust to pay out more distribution than to spend on drilling. Potential distribution increase. Could do another acquisition. Also un-recognized value for their Seal property. | 2008-05-13 | |
| BUY | 24.740 | Ben Cheng | Very well run income trust. Focused on heavy oil. Recently made an acquisition of Burmis Energy (BME-T) that adds to their natural gas and light oil production. Good management team. | 2008-04-16 | |
| Comment | 24.080 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | Just made an offer to purchase Burmis Energy (BME-T) 2 weeks ago. These are Pembina assets so it will be a little sizzle. The market had not been enamoured with this story but it is starting to turn around. From a trading point of view, wait for a pullback. Distribution should be safe. | 2008-04-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 21.230 | Robert Floyd | Wanted to provide a stock that provided decent income along with some growth. Yield of about 10%. With an oil price of around $100, you have a company that has been replacing reserves. NAV of over $24. Gives some good upside in terms of growth. | 2008-02-29 | |
| WAIT | 21.400 | Sandy McIntyre | Has a bias towards heavy oil. Into the heavy oil project at Seal. Prefers over Penn West (PWT.UN-T). Following 2011, the cash taxes will be mitigated to a great degree by preservation of tax pools in the period leading up to 2011. If you are into market timing, you may want to wait until the snow clears. | 2008-02-26 | |
| BUY | 19.570 | Michael Simpson, CFA | About 65% oil/ 35% gas. Interesting play in northern Alberta and production results just released were pretty good. Payout ratio is just over 60%. Good management. | 2007-11-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.320 | Patrick Kim | A very solid portfolio of assets. Primarily weighted to oil with significant heavy oil exposure. Has been some volume disappointments. | 2007-09-21 | |
| BUY | 19.080 | Robert Floyd | 11.1% yield. | 2007-09-14 | |
| Comment | 18.550 | Ben Cheng | Recent acquisition has increased their exposure a little bit too light oil. Historically has been in heavy oil. Has quite a bit of promise in the Seal territory. | 2007-09-05 | |
| BUY | 16.710 | John Stephenson | Oil weighted. Prefers oil over gas. Their Seal project is very promising. It gives them some upside. A reasonably good entry point. | 2007-08-21 | |
| BUY | 18.230 | Sandy McIntyre | Good energy company. Treat the correction as a buying opportunity. | 2007-08-13 | |
| HOLD | 20.900 | Dean Orrico | Heavy oil player. Higher costs. The management team has done a really good job on de-risking it. | 2007-06-14 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 21.060 | Michele Robitaille | Heavy oil weighted trust. Strong management team.
Good capital efficiencies. A decent balance sheet.
| 2007-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.320 | John O'Connell, CFA | Heavy oil is going to be a great place to be an owner, but feels the income trust thing is a ticking bomb. It'll keep working against you. Distribution cuts are going to be a thing for the foreseeable future. | 2007-03-30 | |
| WAIT | 19.680 | David Cockfield | Heavy oil. Have good arrangements for refining in the US. Good management. Good yield. Wait for the budget before buying. | 2007-03-15 | |
| BUY | 20.510 | Ben Cheng | Has performed very well over the long run. Under pressure due to concerns as to where heavy oil spreads are going. Feels they will continue to do good job. Good management. | 2007-03-02 | |
| HOLD | 20.110 | Michele Robitaille | Weighted towards heavy oil, which tends to be a little more volatile. Have negotiated a long-term sales agreement with and independent refiner. Well-run. Relatively low payout ratio at 60%. Getting a little bit expensive. | 2007-02-02 | |
| BUY | 20.130 | Michael Simpson, CFA | More exposed to oil, especially heavy oil. Have an interesting play, Seal, in northern Alberta. Also has significant tax pools which will be useful post-2011. | 2007-01-04 | |
| BUY | 22.860 | Robert Floyd | A little more conservative in terms of money they are paying out of the trust. 9.5% yield. A possibility they could be increasing the distributions. | 2006-12-01 | |
| BUY | 23.400 | Robert Floyd | A very good operator. Payout ratio is somewhat lower. You could add to it now or on weakness over the next couple of weeks. | 2006-10-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 21.910 | John Stephenson | 9.8% yield. A heavy oil weighted name. The spreads between heavy and light have really widened and they are starting to narrow again. They have some oil sands which he doesn't think is reflected in the price. Could see 25% to 30% upside from here. | 2006-10-12 | |
| BUY | 21.410 | David Cockfield | Heavy oil. Considers their reserves are understated because they are drilling in a homogeneous area. Conservative payout record. Lots of long-term reserves. | 2006-10-05 | |
| WEAK BUY | 28.000 | John O'Connell, CFA | The whole oil/gas area is one you have to be really cautious about. A lot of trusts are trading at significant premium to their net asset values. | 2006-08-25 | |
| BUY | 26.850 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | This fund will do as heavy oil does. Well-run company. He is moving away from heavy oil, but this one is doing well and is reflected in its numbers. | 2006-08-23 | |
| HOLD | 26.630 | John Stephenson | A heavy oil story, but it does have a fair bit of production. Doesn't see tremendous upside in the short-term. Suffers from a bit of a discount because of the heavy oil. | 2006-08-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 26.090 | Peter Gibson | Yield is 8.25%. 33% Return On Equity. Good strong profit growth. This is a defensive energy pick. | 2006-08-18 | |
| HOLD | 25.880 | Robert Floyd | Has done extremely well. Would-be looking for an increase in the payout. Right now the yield is getting a little low. | 2006-08-02 | |
| BUY | 23.450 | Ravi Sood | Expects capital gains. A name he really likes. | 2006-07-21 | |
| SELL | 24.630 | Greg Guichon | A heavy oil trust. The spread between heavy oil and light oil has narrowed so the trust has done very well. This is a seasonal stock and demand is highest in the summer, so you might want to take profits now. | 2006-07-14 | |
| BUY | 24.200 | James Leung | Has 3 elements, conventional, heavy oil and some natural gas. Have some cost efficiencies in place. Differential between heavy and light oil is narrowing. | 2006-06-30 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 21.260 | David Cockfield | A very well-run company. The area they are working in has excellent resources. It has been helped recently by the spread between light and heavy oil. Would like to see a pullback. | 2006-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 17.480 | Peter Hodson | Likes the energy play and loves the management team. They have done a nice little financial engineering. A heavy oil company that has taken away a lot of their heavy oil exposure, yet it still gets a heavy oil discount. Right now, their payout ratio is 35%. | 2006-01-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.490 | Garth Jestley | Not keen on heavy oil. Exposed to rises in the oil patch disproportionately to the others. They have hedged the differential, however he just doesn't like heavy oil. | 2005-12-02 | |
| HOLD | 16.850 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Heavy oil, so there's an extra element of risk associated with it. Not one of his favourites, but it is a good high end, good yield and represents good value. | 2005-11-30 | |
| BUY | 17.050 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Primarily involved with heavy oil. The market really misunderstands this company. A little more debt than he's comfotable with, but a large portion is term debt, so not as worried about that. Have an interesting arrangement with a US refinery that locks in a spread on their heavy oil. Still buying. | 2005-10-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.850 | Greg Guichon | A heavy oil producer, so are subject to heavy oil prices. A seasonal commodity. Right now they are having a phenominal quarter and expects the same with the 3rd quarter. He tends to stay away from the seasonal stocks. | 2005-09-09 | |
| BUY | 15.740 | David Cockfield | Has come off a bit and is in a Buy range. In the heavy oil side which has its own pace. Reserves are probably understated. Production problems now seem to be on side. The spread between light and heavy oil has decreased. Would expect to see some increase in the payout. | 2005-08-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.900 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has an exposure to heavy oil so besides just crude oil you have to look at another price which is the differential between West Texas intermediate crude oil price and what heavy oil is trading for. It traditionally has gotten fairly large in the winter months and fairly small in the summer. There are others he likes better, but it will grow in production. Well managed. | 2005-07-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.650 | Robert Lauzon | Heavy oil producer. Reserve life is just below the average. Prefers trusts with lighter oil. | 2005-06-17 | |
| BUY | 13.190 | Patrick Kim | Relative to other royalty trusts the payout ratio is just slightly above average. One of the reasons valuation has been held down is dur to their emphasis on heavy oil. Has some attractive hedging. | 2005-06-10 | |
| SELL | 14.290 | Robert Lauzon | Primarily all heavy oil, although about 70% of it is hedged. Long term would be more constructive on light/sweet oil such as Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T), Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) and Enerplus (ERF.UN-T). Would sell and switch to another royalty trust. Own in their index fund, but only because they have to. | 2005-04-08 | |
| BUY | 14.350 | David Cockfield | Different than most of the other income trusts in that it is essentially a heavy oil. Have lots of reserves. Not a lot of risk for them in increasing reserves. Got hurt in the last quarter in'04 because the heavy/light oil spread widened significantly, but they have 70% of their production locked in. | 2005-02-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.140 | Garth Jestley | Weighted more towards heavy oil. The light & heavy oil differential has widened which is a negative for heavy oil producers, but not as negative for Baytex in the short term as they have hedged that risk. The reality with heavy oil is that the net backs are lower and operating costs are higher. | 2005-02-18 | |
| HOLD | 12.870 | David Cockfield | Heavy oil aspect is mitigated by their contracts south of the border to sell at a fixed spread above West Texas intermediate. Haven't done as good a job as anticipated in production. Likes the yield. | 2005-01-21 | |
| STRONG BUY | 12.780 | Hugh McCauley | Made a very cheap acquisition today of light oil. Metrics look pretty good. Their heavy oil is all hedged. The trust is cheap on relative terms. | 2004-12-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.950 | David Baskin | Distribution of 13.9% is pretty rich indicating shorter reserve life. Prefers longer reserve life. | 2004-11-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.050 | Ben Cheng | Most of their hedges are done. A beneficiary of the move up in commodity prices as well as the narrowing of the light/heavy oil spread. Have done a good job in turning the company around. Better values available. | 2004-11-12 | |
| HOLD | 12.180 | Brian Prokop | A sector perform. A very solid trust. Good management. A lot of their assets are in heavy oil, so there is some risks. | 2004-09-15 | |
| BUY | 12.290 | David Cockfield | Have held their ground very well when other income trusts were suffering. Relatively inexpensive. A good solid performer. | 2004-07-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 12.560 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Probably paying out more distributions than they receive. Mainly heavy oil with thinner and more variable margins. Will buy when the price is right. | 2004-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.270 | Ben Cheng | Pays a higher distribution from their cash flow and are on a bit of a treadmill as they must run production at full levels and try to acquire smaller companies. Their focus is on heavy oil which can be very volatile. | 2004-07-15 | |
| BUY | 11.700 | John Stephenson | Has usually sold at a discount to other trusts because of heavy oil. Has a shorter reserve life than others. Have locked in a differential that the market is starting to appreciate. Should do OK from here. | 2004-06-10 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 11.630 | David Cockfield | Likes the company and that they are only paying out 70% into distributions. Have hedged a good portion of their production. A bit pricey and could drop further. Buy under $11. | 2004-06-04 | |
| HOLD | 11.800 | David Cockfield | Fully priced at this point. Quite happy with it. Only paying out about 70% of the cash flow so you can be sure they will probably maintain their payout. | 2004-05-12 | |
| BUY | 12.480 | John Stephenson | Trading at a discount because it's a heavy oil story. Underpriced and it should go higher. | 2004-05-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 12.220 | David Cockfield | (A top pick Jan 29/04. Up 12%.) Still represents one of the better values. High yield. | 2004-04-26 | |
| BUY | 10.590 | Craig Porter | Smaller % of distribution in order to keep a larger amount of cash flow in order to develop their assets. Distribution is safe this year. Good management. | 2004-03-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 10.500 | David Cockfield | (Top pick Dec 30/03. Down 2.6%. ) Still likes and still buying it. Heavy oil, so not much risk. Good price. A 60/70% payout. | 2004-03-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 10.200 | David Cockfield | Strong management team. Heavy oil usually doesn't give you any surprises. At a good price. | 2004-02-18 | |
| WATCH | 10.700 | Gavin Graham | Translated itself into income trust. Mostly heavy oil. Doesnt have a lot of gas. The yeild is high. | 2004-02-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 10.810 | David Cockfield | Best numbers of any oil and gas. yield is 16%. | 2004-01-29 | |
| WATCH | 11.050 | John Priestman | A heavy oil play, which is a part of the market they don't care for. They have a lot of Proven Undeveloped Reserves with the risk that they could be downgraded. | 2004-01-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 11.100 | David Cockfield | It looks like the company is going to pay $.15 on a monthly basis. Makes a good yield. A conservative company. | 2004-01-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 10.690 | David Cockfield | A very dependable trust. 16% yield. | 2003-12-30 | |
| WAIT | 10.450 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Basically a heavy oil producer. Represents good value. Changing their reserve engineers, so waiting to see if there is a change in their reserve picture. If so, there may be some softness in the price and would buy then. | 2003-12-18 | |
| VAGUE | 10.220 | David Burrows | Prefers Advantage Energy Trust. | 2003-12-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.600 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Mainly a heavy oil producer. This entails an extra risk. Heavy oil prices will soften in the winter. | 2003-09-24 | |
| BUY | 9.500 | David Cockfield | They have some good long-term contracts. Good multiple. | 2003-09-19 | |
| VAGUE | 9.900 | Ben Cheng | May have a tougher time then other oil/gas trusts. More focused on heavy oil production. This puts it into a 2nd level of volatility as it gets into heavy and sweet oil spreads plus normal volatility. Shorter reserve life. | 2003-09-17 | |
Experts that have talked about Baytex Energy Trust
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