| DON'T BUY | 8.020 | Derek Webb, CFA | He has been short this stock on and off since he started his fund. Although he is not short at this moment, it is still in the short camp. Earnings continue to go down because newsprint demand is going down. The slowing economy further accelerates its decline. Strong Cdn$ increases their cost structure. | 2008-03-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.800 | Gavin Graham | Now closing Canadian plants because of high costs and keeping US plants. Forest products industry has been much more disciplined about bringing on new capacity and closing low capacity. Stock price has been abysmal and some smart investors have been buying lots. If you believe that every commodity will have its day in the sun, wait for it to start moving. | 2008-03-06 | |
| Comment | 17.840 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | All newsprint players have been decimated, specifically those in Canada whose costs are in Cdn$’s. Has BV of about $25 with a terrible balance sheet. If a company can pay its banks when the commodities are low they have massive leverage when commodities improve. Newsprint inventory is down 25%, largest decline in 30 years. It could earn $8 a share and at $17, in 4 years you could be paying 2X earnings. Needs to do more work, but it fascinates him. | 2008-01-10 | |
| Comment | 21.120 | Norman Levine | Trying to turn a corner. Recently announced some closings and cost cutting. The synergies on the merger are starting to build up. Hard to say if it is time to buy the stock yet because the environment is so bad. | 2007-12-03 | |
| SELL | 16.190 | Brian Acker, CA | All the newspaper companies are hitting 52-week lows and are getting killed by Google. Amalgamation of Abitibi and Bowater were 2 very weak businesses. His model price is $4.31US. Looks like they might lose a mean estimate of $5 for 07 and another $5 for Dec 08.. | 2007-11-20 | |
| HOLD | 1.900 | Benj Gallander | Owns and has "got our brains blown out" Just moved it from a buy to a hold. | 2007-10-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 1.770 | Robert Floyd | Looking for the continued merger with Bowater (BOW-N). Stock has been hit hard lately. There will be synergies of about $250 million, but he doesn't like the outlook for the commodities. Not a fan of the sector. | 2007-09-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.050 | Chris Smith | In a bad industry. Demand for newsprint is generally in decline. Global competition is strong. They are about to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), which will give them almost 50% share of the newsprint business. This merger is the only opportunity they have to | 2007-08-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.090 | Nick Majendie | Would avoid this stock at these levels. Have extremely high debt. Outlook for newsprint is not good and consumption has been declining in North America on a regular basis. Cdn$ is definitely hurting them. | 2007-08-29 | |
| HOLD | 2.130 | Bill Carrigan | This has had a huge corrective period since last February, so it might be into a bottom here. The MACD is showing a little bit of positive divergence at its low. Don't put new money in, but Hold. | 2007-08-20 | |
| SELL | 2.820 | Ian Nakamoto | Trying to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), but both companies have operating losses. | 2007-07-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.040 | Bill Harris | Too much debt. Hard to understand how the company operates going forward. | 2007-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.610 | Bill Harris | Pulp and Paper is a really beaten up sector, and you should be able to buy the bonds, but they aren't paying high enough esp with the Canadian dollar so high. Pulp and Paper is profitable in Brazil, just not here. | 2007-05-31 | |
| Comment | 2.670 | Benj Gallander | Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Both companies are having a lot of problems and losing money. Merger will do well. It's possible they could go bankrupt, but he is content to continue holding. | 2007-05-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 3.120 | Ben Stadelmann | (A Top Pick Sept 14/06. Up 10%.) Merging with Bowater. It's going to be a long and complicated haul. Still likes. | 2007-04-20 | |
| BUY | 3.190 | Benj Gallander | Will be a much stronger company with the merger. There will be adjustments. Has a ways to go before all approvals are in place. Sector is way out of favour, which is why he likes it. | 2007-04-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.340 | Bill Harris | Everything is going their way right now, but there is too much risk. Has an enormous amount of debt. | 2007-04-13 | |
| Comment | 3.230 | Robert Floyd | Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Tough industry and to survive, they have to get bigger in order to get costs down. We'll have big revenues and potential synergies of about $250 million. Doesn't like the sector. | 2007-03-29 | |
| SELL | 3.830 | Norman Levine | Has had a nice little pop here. Would take the money and run. #1, you've had a tremendous move in a very short period of time, #2 the two companies are going to have to face antitrust issues and #3 newsprint is a lousy business.. | 2007-01-31 | |
| Comment | 3.940 | Michael Sprung | Proposing to integrate with Bowater (BOW-N). Has been struggling for a long time and has had a heavy debt burden. This may result in a stronger company going forward. | 2007-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.140 | Robert Floyd | Very tough industry requiring a lot of capital expenditure for development of plants. Paper/forest industry was a disaster last year. Facing a lot of pressure. | 2007-01-19 | |
| Comment | 3.190 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Made a lower low in December than what it had in August. Looks like it is forming a base. Will it take out the high? If it does, there could be a structure of a bottom forming. There is a possible set up for a technical trade. | 2007-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.930 | Gavin Graham | Owns the bonds rather than the stocks. Recovery could take longer than you think. Really cheap. It is the one the turn-around investors will start buying because it is the biggest and most liquid. | 2006-12-28 | |
| SELL | 2.880 | David Cockfield | Forest products is still a difficult place to be. Housing is slowing down. Newsprint is not great. | 2006-12-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.840 | Bill Harris | The paper market (forestry) is where you should find the bear market (deals) right now. However, the paper market keeps grinding down. Got hit with the rising Canadian dollar, higher electricity costs, etc. which makes him nervous. He can’t see visibility a few years out. | 2006-12-22 | |
| BUY | 2.560 | John O'Connell, CFA | Started looking at this. Has a market cap of about $1.2 billion. Have power assets that are generating 544 megawatts which would be worth around $1 billion. | 2006-11-27 | |
| Comment | 2.700 | Rob Callander | A bit of a teaser. Trading at an exceptionally low price. Struggling, but has terrific assets. Canadian dollar is coming down. Speculative. An alternative might be Canfor (CFP-T). | 2006-11-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.800 | Norman Levine | Crushing debt load. Products are priced in US $’s while it’s costs are in Canadian. | 2006-11-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | 2.790 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Levered to the Cdn$ which has recently lost a lot of bullish momentum. Nice base has formed. It has continually made new bases through the years and then failed. From a trading perspective, if it makes a new low, you’ll have to Stop out. If Cdn$ stabilizes it should be able to get near its October’s highs. Treat as a trade. | 2006-11-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.360 | Peter Brieger | With the cutbacks in employment in eastern Canada, and the closure of some mills the industry will return to profitability. This would be in 2008 and beyond. That is too far out for him. | 2006-10-16 | |
| BUY | 2.740 | Benj Gallander | Company has problems. Management has overcompensated. Still has a big debt load. If the softwood deal goes through, they’ll be able to pay off some debt. If itt starts to come back, there will be a lot of buyers. Could be some tax loss selling shortly. | 2006-10-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.960 | Paul Harris, CFA | Doesn't like the pulp and paper industry as there is lots of overcapacity in this sector. Stay away from this stock. | 2006-09-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.720 | Bill Carrigan | If it is at its 52-week low, there has to be a volume increase on the first up tick and slightly less on the second. Do not add to position on a 52-week low. | 2006-09-15 | |
| TOP PICK | 2.880 | Benj Gallander | This will be one of the survivors in the forest industry. Has been crippled by the tariffs in the US. Will be happy to sit with this one. Have cut down their debt and closed some of their factories. Could be a Buy in tax loss season. | 2006-09-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.950 | David Burrows | Have had a very difficult time and have not been able to make any money. The strong Cdn$ has hurt them. Paper/pulp have been a difficult place to be. Estimates continue to be lower. | 2006-09-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.040 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Has been short this stock because the company is losing market share every year and the Cnd$ is strengthening. Also, Brazil can grow trees a lot faster than Canada. Will short again on any bounce. | 2006-09-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.980 | Norman Levine | Has huge leverage. Balance sheet is very skewed towards lots of debt. Too speculative. | 2006-08-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.950 | Peter Gibson | A number of names in this area look like they are troughing on profitability. It looks like ROE can't get any worse right now. Still exposed to the risk of a higher Canadian$. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.930 | David Baskin | Just cut their dividends which should have been done a long time ago. In a tough market. Internet advertising has been growing like crazy. | 2006-07-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.810 | David Cockfield | Not a fan of the forest product industry. Still has a black cloud over the industry. | 2006-07-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.060 | Bruce Campbell | Internet picks away at newsprint and the economy is going to get slower, not quicker. | 2006-07-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 2.900 | David Burrows | He only wants stocks that are going higher in a strong market. This is a weak market and this is one of the weakest stocks. It couldn't get going even when the resource stocks where moving. Expect it will continue to see declining revenue going forward. | 2006-06-27 | |
| SELL | 3.140 | Norman Levine | In a tough business. Newspaper business or lumber in eastern Canada has not been a good place to be. Very highly leveraged. | 2006-06-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 3.870 | David Baskin | News print statistics showed newsprint usage was down 8%. Newsprint has been very badly affected by the currency. | 2006-05-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.550 | David Baskin | Dead company walking. They have had a rough ride and he doesn't see it changing anytime soon. The pulp business is a lousy business in the paper business is just as bad. | 2006-05-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.610 | Shauna Sexsmith | This company has been in such a negative spiral for many years. The news print producers have been shutting down capacity so they are starting to see a recovery in some margins. Not an exciting growth story. | 2006-03-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.510 | David Baskin | The newsprint business is in tough shape and he doesn't think it's coming back. Advertising is going on the Internet. Perhaps the new government will make progress on the softwood lumber dispute. | 2006-02-01 | |
| SELL | 4.760 | David Driscoll | Would avoid this one completely. They are a mess and have been for a long time. They do not generate enough free cash flow to cover any of their capital expenditures. Their credit rating is junk status. Dividend was cut. | 2006-01-18 | |
| BUY | 4.700 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Just bought this one. There has been so much capacity reduction that newsprint is now tight. A price increase just went through. Producers are running at about 95% capacity now. They get killed by the US dollar, but their debt is also in US dollars. | 2005-12-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.030 | Brian Acker, CA | The newspaper business is a really tough one. Looking for a loss in Dec/06 of $0.04. If you own and it drops to the $3.50 level, get out. | 2005-11-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | 3.700 | Brian Acker, CA | You could do a speculation at around $3.80. If it breakes $3.80, get out. The concencus is that it has $0.03 negative earnings. | 2005-10-20 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 3.920 | Pierre Bernard | (Past Top Pick April 18/05. Down 28%.) Didn't like it when they sold their Asian assets. | 2005-10-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.850 | John Zechner | Inclined to stay away from forest products, Because of the rising Canadian dollar. Not enough there to interest us. | 2005-09-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.220 | Paul Harris, CFA | Better off with a lumber stock rather than this one as they are really hurt by a lot of ovewr capacity, especially in the printing business. At these levels, you could certainly start looking at it, but don't rush in to buy. | 2005-09-19 | |
| SELL | 5.110 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Serious financial trouble and financial issues. Terrible balance sheet. Very bad exposure to the Cdn$. Newsprint consumption is in a decline. | 2005-08-29 | |
| WEAK BUY | 5.150 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Worst performer because of foreign currency. Be careful that you have stocks in your portfolio that offset this by benfitting from a stronger Cdn$. | 2005-05-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.650 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Avoids this stock. In serious trouble. | 2005-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.570 | David Baskin | A pretty grim picture. Newsprint prices have been lousy and on an inflation adjusted basis, they are half what they were 5 years ago. A lot of the problem is on-line advertising and every $ of that is probably coming out of newspapers. | 2005-04-21 | |
| HOLD | 5.520 | Rob Callander | The world's largest newsprint manufacturer. Everything that can go wrong seems to have. Eventually they'll get straightened out. | 2005-04-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 5.550 | Pierre Bernard | At the current price, it's a steal. | 2005-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.510 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Probably too late in the cycle to get into the newsprint stocks. Has a stretched balanced sheet which should be of concern. | 2005-04-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.490 | George Loughery | Largest company, but not known for having shareholder friendly type management. This would be a bet on a commodity. If currency and prices come your way, you have a disproportionate return. Very mercurial. | 2005-03-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.180 | Fred Pynn | Not a growth company, a restructering story. | 2005-03-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.000 | Laura Wallace | Forest sector is negatively impacted by Canadian dollar. Dreadful balance sheet. | 2005-02-28 | |
| SELL | 6.580 | John Zechner | Stock has come down a long way but still not comfortable with it. Paper statisitics still do not look good. Growth is still slow. With the current price of newsprint, they are not generating much cash. Bad balance sheet, huge debt. Will be hurt by a rising Cdn$. | 2005-02-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.690 | David Baskin | Not enthusiastic about this stock. Newsprint sales were down in 2004. | 2005-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.110 | Norman Levine | Newsprint has probably been the worst place to be in. Relatively poor demand, no pricing power and strong Cdn$ has hurt. | 2005-01-05 | |
| WEAK BUY | 8.350 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | The problem is that they have a $30 price increase in the price of newsprint which takes a moving it from $600 to $630. This is priced in US$, so are actually receiving less in Cdn$'s than they were a year ago. Good fundamentals, but has a little more debt than he would normally like. | 2004-12-02 | |
| BUY | 8.000 | Rob Callander | Has been disappointing, but recently has had some recovery. Looking for newspaper price increases. | 2004-11-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.890 | Bill Carrigan | Got whacked by the strong Cnd$. US economy should pick up. Use a $7 stop/loss. | 2004-11-18 | |
| SELL | 7.480 | Martin Hubbes, CFA | There has been a glut of newsprint globally. There has been no rebound in consumption that we are used to in normal cycles. Internet is a factor. | 2004-11-05 | |
| HOLD | 7.310 | Ray Steele | Waiting to see a rebound in newsprint prices. Expects to see some increases in prices of forest products next year. | 2004-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.270 | Bill Harris | Being hit with the weak US$ as well as lower newsprint prices. Fully priced and could go lower. | 2004-10-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.290 | Norman Levine | Earnings were better than expected, so the stock rose a bit. Newsprint prices have not been rising and doesn't look promising. | 2004-10-21 | |
| HOLD | 6.700 | Ron Meisels | Has not beern behaving well. Has recently broken down, but technically speaking there is a chance of a turn around, but don't stay with it very long. | 2004-10-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.050 | David Driscoll | Would be better off with West Fraser Timber. Not making a profit. Credit rating is very bad. Cash flow doesn't exist. | 2004-10-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.030 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Typically towards the end of an economic cycle, you would see newsprint turn around, but hasn't happened yet. May not see a recovery. Would prefer Norske Skog. | 2004-10-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.120 | Norman Levine | In the forest product area, newsprint and pulp look particularily weak. | 2004-09-28 | |
| BUY | 7.960 | Pierre Bernard | Could easily go back to $10. Dropped because of a slight negative demand for newsprint. | 2004-09-21 | |
| BUY | 7.850 | John Sinkins, CFA | A value play at this time. Reasonable price. | 2004-09-13 | |
| BUY | 7.390 | David Baskin | Will probably benefit from the latest World Trade Organization ruling. A bargain at this price. | 2004-09-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.460 | Norman Levine | The least attractive of the forest products sector. The demand and pricing of newsprint is nothing special. Would rather go into lumber. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.830 | Brian Acker, CA | Has been consistent for 15 years. Hates the company. Book value continually goes down. Model price is $6.86. | 2004-08-11 | |
| BUY | 8.820 | David Baskin | Starting to look at the lumber industry this week. Thinks there are bargains here. The US housing boom may be coming to an end. Trades at low multiples of earnings. | 2004-07-29 | |
| BUY | 8.570 | Blair Wilson | Has a sector outperform on this stock. High risk caveat. Target price is contingent upon continued improved economy and higher commodity prices. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.750 | Ross Healey | Doesn't find it attractive. Fair market value is a lot less than the current price. Haven't seen a turn in the earnings. | 2004-04-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.240 | Michael Sprung | Trying to avoid paper and pulp. Wouldn't buy at current price. | 2004-03-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.770 | Peter Brieger | Prefers Canfor. Losing money this year, barely making money next year. | 2004-03-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.030 | Norman Levine | Positive on the forest products in general, but the ones area that he is not interested in at all is newsprint. The demand and pricing is just not that healthy. | 2004-03-12 | |
| BUY | 10.600 | Gavin Graham | Has been a real dog. Expects advertising and printing will turn, and when it does, you will see pulp and paper catch up. | 2004-03-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 10.870 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | (A top pick Dec 15/03. Up 9%.) Still likes. Had a double bottom pattern after a multi year decline. | 2004-03-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.850 | David Baskin | Not happy with the trade dispute with the US and doesn't see an early end to it. There is room for pulp/paper prices to go up but have chosen to play it through Kimberly-Clark which doesn't face the trade problem. | 2004-03-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.370 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | The problem is that their customers are so large it is difficult to put Price increases through. They higher Canadian dollar is killing them. | 2004-01-14 | |
| BUY | 10.090 | Gavin Graham | Has not benefited from last year's commodity increases because newsprint prices have not risen. Now looks like there may be some pickup. Reasonably priced. | 2004-01-06 | |
| BUY | 10.370 | Ray Steele | Still a lot of issues, but stock is really cheap. This one will be one of the first that large institutional investors will move into once the lumber dispute is settled. | 2003-12-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.630 | Ted Macklin | Have a large debt load and have more to do to cut this back. Trying to increase the price of newsprint, but not sure it will stick. | 2003-12-16 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 9.770 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | (A past top pick Sept 15/03. Down 2.5%.) The paper sector is the only one that has not performed well in basic materials. Some good fundamentals developing. | 2003-12-15 | |
| TOP PICK | 9.770 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | The $8.50 has been an important support level this year. Recently got down there and held. | 2003-12-15 | |
| BUY | 9.830 | Robert Floyd | Treat this stock as a trading vehicle because of the nature of the business. Pricing is critical based on strong economic growth to drive the profitability of these companies. At its low. | 2003-12-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.800 | Bruce Campbell | Forest products have not responded to the economic upswing. Will take a few quarters. | 2003-11-24 | |
Experts that have talked about AbitibiBowater Inc.
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